WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 19.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will be rolling out backup QB Kyle Allen in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Jordan Akins has notched a lot more receiving yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.7 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.8%) versus TEs this year (66.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
