Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (+100) after it opened @ 16.5 (-110).

Pros

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) versus TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards