Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in the league (82.1%) to tight ends this year (82.1%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
