Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Greg Dulcich from EV Insight

Greg DulcichReceiving Yards

Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in the league (82.1%) to tight ends this year (82.1%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards