NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-105) after it opened @ 17.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Logan Thomas has accrued a colossal 29.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The Houston Texans defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) to TEs this year.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 57.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
