Bettings
article featured image background
Article preview

Week 11 NFL Player Props of the Week

NFL Bets
Share
Contents
Close

We’re back again with our favorite player props of the week. As we gear up for the Sunday action of Week 11, I’ve got some bets I’m eying.

 

Here are some of my favorite individual player props for Week 11.

Justin Fields Over 250.5 Passing + Rushing Yards

(-115, BetMGM)

Two weeks ago, we bet this at 213, last week we bet it at 239.5, and we’re going to do that once again at this 250 number. While Justin Fields is enjoying the success from a very impressive breakout season, he once again finds himself in a great matchup against the Falcons this week. Fields has absolutely torn about opposing defenses in back-to-back weeks, putting up 147 and 178 rushing yards. While I’m positive this kind of rushing production isn’t sustainable, it does seem like 10-plus rushing attempts and 70-plus yards is going to be the new normal, especially against terrible defenses like Atlanta. 

Due to the extreme rushing production, his passing yards have been down over the past couple weeks. The good news is we did see him have a four-week swing of games above 170 passing yards before the insane rushing games, and he now gets a fantastic matchup. The Falcons currently allow the most passing yards in the NFL (289.9), and cornerback A.J. Terrell is questionable to return. Earlier in the season I may have been less excited about this Falcons matchup because they currently rank dead last in QB pressure. At the beginning of the season Fields was benefiting from high league high scramble rate, but we have finally started to see the designed runs ramp up over the last couple weeks, and we’ve seen enormous returns on that. This is one of those matchups he should be able to move the ball one way or another against Atlanta, I like having both options here. 

 

Parris Campbell Over 3.5 Receptions 

(-156, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’ve already talked a little bit about Parris Campbell this week, and I like doubling down on his reception total here. Before we even talk about Campbell, I think this presents as an interesting matchup against Philly. We’ve wanted to target the slot against them all season, considering Michael Pittman will likely see the best outside corner duo in the NFL with Darius Slay and James Bradberry. The Eagles are currently touchdown favorites against the Colts, and the presumption is that they bounce back after the Washington primetime loss, this could mean the Colts are forced into a more pass-heavy gamescript. 

Now that Matt Ryan is back as the starter, I feel comfortable going back to the Colts receivers. Campbell was growing a rapport with Ryan before he was benched, seeing route participation above 90% in back-to-back weeks. While he underperformed in the two weeks with Sam Ehlinger, he looked right back in form posting a 25% target share, going 7-76-1 on 9 targets. The other good news is he currently has a 5.8-yard ADOT, meaning most of his targets are closer to the line of scrimmage and easier to convert. This could come in handy against a good Eagles defense. 

 
Previous Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight Next Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight