Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Franz Wagner Over 19.5 Points
(-109, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It’s a prime matchup for Franz Wagner and the rest of these Magic players here against the Pacers, who rank 28th in DEF and play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Additionally, Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony remain out for Orlando, opening up more usage for Wagner, who has 20-plus points in six of his last nine games.
Top Assists Prop
Paul George Over 4.5 Assists
(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a great matchup for Paul George as well, as the Kings rank 26th in DEF, and my model has George for over 5 assists, so at +110 this is a bet the model likes.
Top Rebounds Prop
De’Anthony Melton Over 5.5 Rebounds
(-155, DraftKings Sportsbook)
De’Anthony Melton is a good rebounding guard — he has at least 6 rebounds in each of his last four games — and with Tyrese Maxey out, we can expect some more time on the floor for him in a pace-up spot against the Timberwolves. My model has Melton for nearly 8 rebounds, so taking this bet at 6.5 at plus-money is also appealing.
