Week 1 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The NFL season is back! That means the NFL betting markets are open for business. We will have you covered here at FTN Bets are sides and totals for all our favorite weekly matchups. But we can’t forget about the dogs, specifically those high-value moneyline underdogs!

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. We had a profitable 2023 season, so let’s jump right back into it. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 1 of the 2024 season.

Week 1 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Carolina Panthers +4.5 at New Orleans Saints

(+176, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I grabbed this one as soon as it was posted, seeing huge value in Carolina. The Panthers disappointed with a 2-15 record in quarterback Bryce Young’s rookie season, but they had a preseason projected win total of 7.5 prior to the start of the season. New head coach Dave Canales was brought to Carolina to create a successful offensive environment for Young, and the new wide receiver additions of Diontae Johnson and rookie Xaiver Legette should be a huge help. The Carolina pass defense was underrated last season, putting up solid performances despite injuries. The Panthers ranked top 10 in DVOA against WR2s and third-best in DVOA against WR3s. I believe in defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero to have the Panthers even better in 2024. 

New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen does not inspire confidence, especially against the spread. Allen is a putrid 24-46 (34.3%) over his coaching career, which is the worst among all active head coaches per BetLabs. The Saints have gone under their preseason win total in their two years under Allen, and I projected New Orleans for a disappointing 4-13 in my win total preview last week. Quarterback Derek Carr has also struggled as a betting favorite, ranking 165th of 166 quarterbacks ATS at 74-83-3 (BetLabs). 

New Orleans’ offensive line ranked dead last in our projections per our own Dan Fornek, which is always concerning as a betting favorite. I’m backing the Panthers to pull the Week 1 road upset. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.76 Units

Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Chicago Bears

(+175, Bet365)

Find me one person who likes the Titans in this matchup? Chicago is one of the popular playoff picks for analysts after watching No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams play well in spurts during the preseason. However, rookie quarterbacks have not performed historically well, especially as betting favorites. Per BetLabs, rookie quarterbacks as a three-point or higher betting favorite in Week 1 are just 1-4 straight up since the merger. The last two were Mac Jones (lost 17-16 at home to Miami) and Trevor Lawrence (lost 37-21 at Houston).

While the Bears boast an offense with multiple playmakers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift and rookie Rome Odunze, the Titans offense is being drastically underrated. Tennessee has two versatile running backs in Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard, and three fantastic wide receivers in Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd. New head coach Brian Callahan comes from Cincinnati, where he choreographed an explosive Bengals offense with quarterback Joe Burrow. The Titans also brought in Callahan’s dad, Bill, who is one of the elite offensive line coaches in the NFL. 

The betting support for a rookie quarterback is premature, and the Titans have flown under the radar all preseason. I’m grabbing the 4.5 points with Tennessee and back them as my second moneyline underdog of Week 1. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.75 Units