Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
College football is back! Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly college football power rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Tuesday for the upcoming slate of games.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN power rankings.
Oklahoma
AP Ranking: 16
FTN Power Ranking: 7
Change: +2
We jumped Oklahoma two spots to No. 7 overall after the Sooners’ 51-3 pasting of Temple. Quarterback Jackson Arnold threw four touchdowns, three to former Purdue wideout Deion Burks. Oklahoma should continue to roll the next two weeks, setting up a huge clash at home against No. 15 Tennessee. The Sooners are currently ranked one spot behind the Volunteers in the AP Poll.
Penn State
AP Ranking: 8
FTN Power Ranking: 3
Change: None
We have always believed in Penn State, and their Week 1 performance did nothing to change our stance. The Nittany Lions are 20-4 the past two seasons and started the 2024 season off with a dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The key to a great Penn State season is the offense, which looked superb with quarterback Drew Allar, who ran for 44 yards and threw three touchdowns. Their schedule is very favorable, with a home game against Ohio State and no matchup with Michigan until 2026. We have the Nittany Lions at No. 3 overall in our Power Rankings, five spots above their AP position.
Ole Miss
AP Ranking: 6
FTN Power Ranking: 15
Change: +1
Ole Miss started the year with a 76-0 blitzing of Furman. Head coach Lane Kiffin guided the Rebels to a school-record 11 wins last season, and always has an elite offense, but can they compete against other elite schools? Last year, they only managed 10 points at Alabama and 17 points in a 52-17 blowout at Georgia. They play at LSU, with home games against No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 1 Georgia. We moved the Rebels up one spot to No. 15, but still have them nine spots lower than their lofty No. 6 AP ranking.
Michigan
AP Ranking: 9
FTN Power Ranking: 8
Change: -4
We dropped the Wolverines a full four spots after their lackluster 30-10 win at home over Fresno State. Michigan held a tenuous 16-10 lead with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter before securing the win after two late touchdowns. The Wolverines’ defense of last year’s national championship did start with a win, but Michigan will need to play much better next week with No. 4 Texas coming to the Big House.
Clemson
AP Ranking: 14
FTN Power Ranking: 13
Change: -3
We dropped Clemson three spots after the 34-3 drubbing by Georgia. It was the second biggest slide among the top 40 teams in our power rankings. The Tigers were only ranked No. 14 entering this week by the AP Poll, so we will certainly remain higher than consensus on the Tigers entering Week 2. A home matchup with Appalachian State is the right recipe for a Clemson bounceback performance.
Nebraska
AP Ranking: NR
FTN Power Ranking: 44
Change: +6
One of the biggest risers on our list is the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who rose six spots to No. 44 overall this week. Nebraska opened with an impressive 40-7 rout of UTEP. Star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola threw two touchdown passes in his first collegiate start. We are keeping an eye on Nebraska as they welcome Colorado to Lincoln Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Head coach Matt Rhule is off to a great start in his second season with the Cornhuskers.
