Using betting lines to set your Week 12 fantasy lineup

Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and it’s time to set our fantasy football lineups.

As always, lineup decisions are the hardest part of your life as a fantasy manager, and you’ll want to consult as many factors as possible to help you make those choices.

Since you’re reading this article, it’s safe to assume you’re looking for any and every edge possible. And one of the most underutilized data points in season-long leagues are betting lines. 

Betting lines to find a streaming QB: Week 12

FTN has you covered with a full article on streaming QB options for Week 12, but you can also consult the betting lines to help you make a choice.

Using implied team and game totals from the FTN Bets NFL Odds page, we can quickly search for possible top-end streaming QB targets. Here are teams with implied Vegas team totals that rank in the 80th percentile or better this week:

In the chart above, you’re looking for is double green in the two colored columns. The column on the far right shows you the implied team total as a percentile (e.g. 80% means that team is expected to score 80% as many points as the team expected to score the most points this week). 

Some weeks, you don’t get potential streamers with double green. Just try to get as close as you can.

Here is a quick list of streaming QB options generated by using point spread betting lines only:

• Jimmy Garoppolo
• Geno Smith

Betting lines to find a streaming DST: Week 12

Using implied team and game totals, we can quickly search for possible top-end streaming DST targets. Here are teams with the best implied Vegas team totals against for this week.

Only teams that are expected to give up fewer than 20 points shown.

In the chart above, you’re looking for red in the colored column on the left (any color in the colored column on the right is okay).

Here are some streaming DST options that jump out at first:

• Chiefs
• Jets
• Dolphins
• Commanders
• Colts
• Panthers

FTN’s Matthew Davis has you covered with a full article on streaming DST candidates for Week 12 so you can dive into some favorite options a bit more.

Predicted Game Flow Intelligence

You can use betting lines to predict game flow. This can help you decide on a flex. If you have a pass-catcher, you want games in which his team is expected to be trailing. For running backs, you’ll want games in which they are expected to be winning.

Here are the five teams expected to win by the most in Week 12:

The above teams may offer good RB targets. QBs and pass-catchers can also succeed for these offenses (teams do have to build leads somehow), but when looking for rusher-friendly game-scripts, this is one of the best places to start.

On the RB front, of players you may be needing to make a decision on, the expected game flow could be good news for:

• Isiah Pacheco
• Jeff Wilson
• Elijah Mitchell
• Kenneth Gainwell
• Michael Carter, James Robinson

And here are the five teams expected to lose by the most in Week 12:

These teams may offer good QB/WR/TE/pass-catching RB targets. Of players you may be needing to make a decision on, the expected game flow could be good news for:

• Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, Cam Akers (passing-down role?)
• Chris Moore, Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins
• Juwan Johnson, Jarvis Landry
• Randall Cobb, Christian Watson
• Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney

As with everything in fantasy football, Vegas-projected game flow shouldn’t be the only factor you consider. But it’s a great way to use betting lines to get some insight into how your players’ games could play out — and use it as a tiebreaker when you can’t decide on who to start.