TwoGun’s Core NFL DFS Picks for Week 12

With just 10 games on the main slate and the slate featuring the Texans, Dolphins, Jets, the now terrible Titans and Jaguars, there really aren’t a whole lot of great fantasy options to choose from when making your lineup. I expect there to be a lot of 20-30% type of chalk this week. We likely won’t have the 50%+ type of players who were great two weeks ago and then busted last week (Jeff Wilson).

The way I will approach this week is to look for a few truly low-owned players I like and then decide which of the chalkyish players I may want to have more exposure to than the public. I don’t think there’s any “must play” chalky players. It’s more that there’s a lack of many great low-owned guys to roster, so I’ll throw in a few of the chalkier ones to round out my lineups. Without further ado, here are my core plays of the week.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

I expect the high-end running backs will generally get a lot of ownership this week, especially Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler. I am guessing Najee Harris will get overlooked since he’s in the same price tier and often more expensive, but his team’s matchup doesn’t seem as great on paper. Still, Harris is a very consistent producer, and the Bengals defense can often let the floodgates open. I’ll try to be heavier on Harris and not worry too much about which running back in his price tier has a 1 or .2 better expected points/dollar.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

You’re probably thinking, “What the $%^&? Why on earth would TwoGun fall for recency bias? Did the chalk hit one too many times and break his soul?  Is he a fish now?” Here’s how I think about Jonathan Taylor going into this week via meme form:

 To be blunt, at least in the higher stakes, I think most guys are going to overthink it and not want to pay up for him. I bet Michael Pittman will be popular and maybe chalky (I’ll have a little Pittman myself, but will likely end up underowning him). I think the little bit extra salary is worth it since it will depress Taylor’s ownership. This game could turn into a shootout, and you have to expect if the Colts are going to score, it’s through their best weapon. I’ll be heavier on him than the public. We’ll see which side of the IQ spectrum I end up.

AJ Dillon (if Aaron Jones is out), Green Bay Packers

We may not know if Aaron Jones is active or not until inactives are released, and the Packers play in the afternoon. Given AJ Dillon is priced up a little and was a bit of a bust last week, I think most people will ignore him. I’ll try to engineer my lineups so that I can switch to him in the afternoon if Jones is out. He’ll likely be very low-owned and will still be good value, though he won’t be a slam-dunk value due to being priced up. 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

This is the type of play I look for in a week like this. He’s the clear top receiver on a team capable of putting up points. He’s had a few down weeks, so people don’t really want to use him since they think he’ll bust again. They’re playing the Steelers, whose defense is a little overrated. He’s in a very similar spot that Terry McLaurin was last week, and that pick worked out pretty well. I like Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow stacks in general this week.

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants

The New York Giants are back to being a laughing stock, and no one wants anything to do with Danny Dimes. With Sterling Shepard out and Kadarius Toney doubtful, Kenny Golladay is the clear #1 receiving target on the team. He still hasn’t had a touchdown yet all season, so he’s likely due to hit pay dirt. The Giants have a decent team total, and the Eagles aren’t that great of a defense. He is a decent value filler for wide receiver or part of a contrarian Daniel Jones stack.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Believe me, with every fiber of my being I want to tout David Johnson. I’m not sure if it’s because I can’t let it go or just want to troll myself, but I want to roster him. I just can’t, at least I can’t make him a core play….I’m sure I’ll find a way to put him in a lineup or two. He’s like that 2 a.m. booty call you’ll never let your friends see and swear you’ll give up but you get lonely…

Anyways, the Texans are favorites and should put up points. They’ll likely use a RBBC utilizing the twin power houses of Rex Burkhead and Johnson. Most of the actual offensive production will likely come from Tyrod Taylor. Despite having an underwhelming game last week, you still have to expect Brandin Cooks to be the top target since he’s still the Texans’ best weapon on the field.

Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

With the Robert Woods injury, all of the focus has been on Odell Beckham. However, I don’t think OBJ is going to be the second receiver in the next game or two. After playing 95% of the snaps last week, Van Jefferson is squarely in the Robert Woods role now with the Rams. He’s still priced about $1500 or so less than Woods used to cost, so I think he’s a pretty decent value. I expect him to be a little popular, but that won’t stop me from using him in my lineups. 

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

When Calvin Ridley declared himself out for the season, Russell Gage was thought to be an immediate beneficiary. He promptly put up a bagel in the next game, pretty much killing his chances of ever being chalk for the rest of the season. Matt Ryan certainly relies on his running backs and tight ends a lot, but Gage is still the top wide receiver. He’s playing the most snaps of any wide receiver on the team, and he’s had eight targets two of the past three games (the third game he had three targets for 0 yards when the Falcons got annihilated by the Cowboys). They’re playing the Jaguars, so hopefully Ryan will be able to move the ball some. I really like him as a low-owned value play.

Dontrell Hilliard, Tennessee Titans

This is a bit of a desperate option given how terrible the Titans offense has suddenly become. All of Ryan Tannehill‘s weapons are essentially out. With Jeremy McNichols out again, Dontrell Hilliard becomes the pass-catching running back for the Titans. With A.J. Brown and Marcus Johnson out, the Titans depth chart starts at their WR4. I don’t think you can bank on Hilliard getting 10 targets again, but it’s certainly possible. I like him more on DraftKings since it’s a full PPR site. Using him also sets up a contrarian cheap running back, expensive wide receiver build, since most of the chalkier running backs are on the expensive side this week. He also allows you to pay up for Jonathan Taylor if you want.