The Read Option, Week 1: Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers game for Week 1.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 50.5, LAC -3
Pace: MIA: 28.2 sec/snap (20th), LAC: 26.0 sec/snap (2nd)

FTN Data Breakdown

• The Dolphins used pre-snap motion 67% of the time in 2022, the highest rate in the NFL.
• Tyreek Hill led the league in targets per route run (32%).
• His 38 targets in the short middle area of the field were the third-most among all wide receivers.
• Tua Tagovailoa completed just three passes over the middle of the field vs LAC in Week 14 of last season.
• Over the past two seasons with Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator, the Chargers have led the NFL in seconds per snap (25.9).
• During his time with the Cowboys, new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offenses ranked second in pace from 2021-2022 (26.0 seconds per snap).

Quarterback

When healthy, Tua Tagovailoa was fantastic last season. He ranked first in yards per attempt (8.9), third in air yards per pass attempt (9.3), first in deep completion percentage (49.1%), seventh in fantasy points per dropback (0.56) and ninth in fantasy points per game (18.4). Hopefully Tagovailoa can stay on the field, as he has tremendous upside in this pass-first, aggressive, fantasy-friendly offense. Mike McDaniel’s offense relied on the pass in 2022, as the Dolphins finished eighth in the league in neutral script pass rate (59.8%) and ninth in passing rate on early downs (55.9%). And the Dolphins didn’t take their foot off the gas when they were ahead. They led by eight-plus points for 153 plays last season, sporting the league’s second-highest pass rate in those situations at 59.4%.

This is one of the most interesting matchups of the week. When the Chargers and Dolphins played last season, Tagovailoa struggled, completing 10-of-28 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. The middle of the field is where this passing attack does most of its work, as the Dolphins targeted the middle of the field 28% of the time last year, the highest rate in football. However, Brandon Staley and the Chargers did a tremendous job of taking that away from Miami. Tagovailoa completed just three passes across the middle in that game, as the Chargers had a tremendous game plan in place. Because Miami uses more pre-snap motion than anyone, the Chargers would use their defensive backs to press Miami’s wideouts at the line of scrimmage, doing so a whopping 35% of the time. However, they would then drop into zone coverage, taking away the middle of the field. The Chargers would drop three defenders into deep middle zones very often, forcing Tua to throw outside of the numbers. It’ll be very interesting to see what McDaniel’s counter is going to be if Staley deploys a similar defensive strategy. Perhaps it is simply to run the football more. Still, Tagovailoa has plenty of upside, especially in a game with a high total. He’s a back-end QB1 for me.

Running Back

With Jeff Wilson on injured reserve, Raheem Mostert should operate as the lead running back for the Dolphins for the foreseeable future. In Weeks 4-8, Mostert became the 1A in this offense, averaging 15.4 carries, 2.8 targets and about 13 PPR points per game, while logging 68% of the snaps during that span. However, ahead of Week 9, the team added Wilson, who also played in San Francisco while McDaniel was there. In his first game with the Dolphins, Wilson outsnapped Mostert. From then on, when both players were active, it was tough to trust either player as anything more than a flex play, especially in a pass-first offense. But Mostert should see close to the workload he saw during that aforementioned five-week sample size and this is a really favorable matchup for him.

Staley’s defenses have welcomed the run over the past few seasons, often giving teams four or five yards per carry. In 2022, the Chargers allowed a league-worst 5.4 yards per attempt, as well as the fifth-most rushing yards per contest (145.8). The Chargers also allowed an insane 8.5 yards per attempt on outside runs last season, while really struggling to defend wide zone runs, which is the staple of this Miami ground attack. 114 of Raheem Mostert’s 181 carries were out of zone concepts (63%), while Miami ran zone over 75% of the time as a team, a top-seven rate in football. We’ll see how much work De’Von Achane sees in his debut, but Mostert should be in line for at least 15 touches against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The veteran running back is a very strong flex play here.

Wide Receiver

Despite moving on from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill put together a career year in 2022, catching 119 passes for over 1,700 yards and seven touchdowns. Hill actually posted career-highs in targets (170), target share (30%) and targets per route run (32%), all of which ranked top-three in the NFL. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill ranked second among wideouts in targets (33) and routes run (34) out of presnap motion, which helped him get so many easy, open looks. He could have legitimately flirted with 2,000 yards if Tagovailoa played the whole season, as Hill posted three games with fewer than 60 receiving yards without Tua, while failing to score in any of the four games he missed. You are obviously starting him, though don’t expect Hill to pick up a random fumble and take it 60 yards to the house again.

While Hill had the huge season, Jaylen Waddle still finished as a top-10 fantasy wideout himself, catching 75 passes for 1,356 yards and eight scores. Waddle saw low-upside usage as a rookie in 2021, sporting the league’s 14th-lowest yards before the catch per reception (5.5) and 15th-lowest average depth of target (7.0 yards). However, that role changed during his sophomore season, as Waddle’s yards before the catch per reception climbed to 11.3, while his aDOT jumped to 12.1 yards. Waddle paced the NFL in yards per reception (18.1) and yards per target (11.7) and should be able to see more than 6.8 targets per game this season. I loved his usage in McDaniel’s first season with the Dolphins and now he faces J.C. Jackson, who was banged up last season, but also struggled when on the field. Jackson allowed 16.1 air yards per target last year, the highest mark on the slate. If Tagovailoa throws 35 passes in this game, at least 20 are going to Hill and Waddle. 

Tight End

This wasn’t the most TE-friendly offense, which was demonstrated before the season even started. Mike Gesicki’s role was questioned, as McDaniel wants his tight ends to be a presence in the run-blocking game. Gesicki, however, is essentially a super-sized slot wideout who has lined up in-line just 20% of the time over the past two seasons. Miami only ran 12 personnel about 10% of the time last season, the fifth-lowest rate in the league, which led to Gesicki playing just 45.2% of the offensive snaps. Gesicki is now in New England, but you shouldn’t start any tight ends from Miami.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert remains one of the premiere quarterbacks in football, but his fantasy production took a step back last year. After finishing as fantasy’s QB3 in 2021, Herbert fell to QB10 this past season. His 3.6% passing touchdown rate played a major role, as it not only ranked 20th in the league, but was also well below his 5.7% and 5.2% touchdown rates from his first two seasons. Herbert ranked fourth among all signal callers in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line last year (49) but only threw 12 touchdown passes from that area of the field. It also didn’t help that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams played in just five full games together and All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater played just three games. Joe Lombardi preferred the short passing game, which was a bit surprising considering Herbert has one of the best arms in the world. Over the past two seasons, Herbert has ranked 28th and 19th in completed air yards per pass attempt (3.2, 3.9). And during that same span, Herbert also ranks 32nd and 18th in intended air yards per pass attempt. This past season, just 9.7% of Herbert’s pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, which ranked 29th among qualified signal callers. This passing game has consisted of a lot of out and hitch routes and not many vertical passes, which could have a lot to do with the Chargers lack of speed.

There should be more vertical shots with Kellen Moore calling plays, though it may not happen this week. Miami hired Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, who has wanted to limit explosive plays by playing a ton of zone defense, specifically Cover-4 or Cover-6. Assuming Fangio brings his same scheme to Miami, the Dolphins are going to have a completely different look on defense in 2023. Expect Fangio to limit the blitzes and play plenty of zone against Herbert, who remains a must-start, mid-range QB1.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler caught 107 passes last year, the second-most by a running back in NFL history. Ekeler has now finished as a top-five fantasy running back in three of the last four seasons, despite not seeing a full workload. He still has yet to reach the 20-carry mark in a game in his career, but Ekeler has made up for it by catching a ton of passes and scoring plenty of touchdowns. He averaged nearly 7.5 targets per game last year, while seeing double-digit targets in five games. It is highly unlikely he repeats those numbers again, especially if the wide receivers are healthy, but Ekeler still projects to catch as many passes as any running back in football, giving him a massive weekly floor. 

Wide Receiver

After staying mostly healthy in 2017-2021, Keenan Allen struggled with a hamstring strain this past season. It essentially sidelined him up until Week 11 and from then on, Allen, per usual, was productive, averaging 10.4 targets, 7.5 receptions, 86.1 receiving yards and 19.2 PPR points per game. During that stretch, Allen was a top-three fantasy wideout, showing he still has plenty of upside, even at the age of 30. Although there will be some changes to this passing attack, Allen will remain the focal point as the intermediate slot target. Miami will be without Jalen Ramsey for this game and Allen draws a favorable matchup against Kader Kohu, who was targeted on 19% of coverage snaps last season, while also allowing the sixth-most receptions (42) in slot coverage. But with the Dolphins playing more zone this season, that certainly favors Allen.

It does not, however, bode as well for Mike Williams, who has been much more productive against man coverage throughout his career. Last season, Williams posted an ugly 11.1% target share against zone coverage, while only catching 20% of his deep targets against zone. In the eight games he played without Keenan Allen, he averaged 9.2 targets, 5.6 receptions, 80 receiving yards and about 16 PPR points per contest. However, those numbers fell to 5.8 targets, 4.38 receptions, 62 receiving yards and just over 12 points per game when playing alongside Allen. We’ll also see how involved Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer are, but this feels like a game where Allen and Ekeler do most of the heavy lifting. Williams is more of a WR3 for me this week.

Tight End

Gerald Everett played a large role, ranking eighth among tight ends in targets (87). He averaged about six per game and was once again outstanding after the catch, averaging 3.5 yards after the catch per target. However, you’d expect Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to play more games together, white the team selected Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft. And Everett’s playing time actually dropped a bit once Donald Parham was healthy last year, averaging 55% of the snaps during the final five weeks of the year. Consider Everett a high-end TE2 for Week 1.