The Candidates to Be the Overall QB1 in 2025

The following tiers of quarterbacks aren’t necessarily a foreshadow to 2025 quarterback rankings. This is just a look at players with a chance, however slight, of finishing as the overall QB1 for the 2025 fantasy football season. There are a few players left out of this conversation who will still mix into the top-20 pre-season rankings for fantasy football. The players in tiers below are just the 20 quarterbacks with the ability to top the position in their range of outcomes, some much more than others.

Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2025

Tier 1: The Favorites

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

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Quarterbacks who rack up significant fantasy points running the ball have the best chance to finish as the overall QB1 in fantasy football. Jalen Hurts (2022), Josh Allen (2023) and Lamar Jackson (2024) have each finished as the overall QB1 over the last three seasons. All three of these players logged 110 or more rush attempts in their respective overall fantasy QB1 season.

Allen has finished inside the top three fantasy quarterbacks on a points per game basis in five straight seasons. That includes two overall QB1 finishes in that span. No other quarterback in this tier has been as consistent. In six non-rookie seasons, Allen has eclipsed 100 rush attempts each time with an average of seven rush attempts per game. Allen’s 37.8 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game since 2019 has provided a fantasy friendly 7.38 points per game from his rushing alone.

Jackson is the reigning overall QB1 with an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game last season. That’s despite Derrick Henry rushing for over 1,900 yards on 325 attempts. Jackson had just three games under 20.0 fantasy points in 2024. He also averaged 29.0 points per game during the fantasy football playoffs in Weeks 15-17. Jackson has the highest upside running the ball. He’s averaged just shy of 10 rush attempts per game since claiming the starting job in 2019. The Ravens’ offense will look a lot similar in 2025 as it did in 2024. A healthy Lamar Jackson has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this tier.

Hurts has exactly 11 goal-line rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. If the NFL revisits a “Tush Push” ban before the season starts, Hurts’ scoring upside could take a hit with more goal-to-go carries going to Saquon Barkley or even A.J. Dillon. Hurts still has plenty of rushing upside and weapons in the passing game to finish as the overall QB1, though.

While the Tush Push accounts for a portion of them, Hurts has logged 150 or more rush attempts in each of the last three seasons. Hurts has an average of 9.85 rush attempts per game since claiming the starting job in 2021. Despite having their fourth different offensive coordinator in as many seasons, the Eagles are still loaded with offensive playmakers to support a QB1 season from Hurts.

Jayden Daniels’ rookie season yielded an average of 22.5 fantasy points per game. He is by far the biggest value at the position from last season, finishing as the QB4. Daniels logged the second-most rush attempts among quarterbacks with just two fewer attempts than Jalen Hurts. After improving upon their offensive line and adding Deebo Samuel at receiver, there’s no reason Daniels can’t finish similarly, if not better, in 2025.

Tier 2: The Contenders

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Burrow is at the top of the contenders list, but he arguably belongs in the tier above with the favorites. His 23.0 points per game earned him a QB3 finish in 2024. After the Bengals extended both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this offseason, Burrow is cemented as a top-five pick at the position in drafts. According to the FTN NFL Splits Tool, Burrow has averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game across 50 career games with both Chase and Higgins active.

Baker Mayfield enters 2025 with a pair of top receivers, as well, in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers even added Emeka Egbuka into the mix with the 19^th overall pick. Mayfield’s QB5 finish with 22.4 fantasy points per game in 2024 was a career best. Though last year’s offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has moved on, replacement Josh Grizzard is highly touted within the organization. He was the passing game coordinator working closely with Coen last season.

It may come as a surprise to some, but Bo Nix finished with 92 rush attempts as a rookie. That ranks fifth amongst the quarterback position. Despite a high volume of rushing, Nix scored 79% of his fantasy points as a passer. He tossed three or four touchdowns in five of his final 10 games. The Broncos notably added tight end Evan Engram in free agency. It will be interesting to see if Nix continues to run as much or if second-round rookie running back RJ Harvey sees a significant workload.

Patrick Mahomes has finished outside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks on a points-per-game basis in two straight seasons. Prior to, he’s been a top-five quarterback in every season from 2018 to 2022. Mahomes does a heavy majority of his scoring through the air as he’s never eclipsed 400 yards rushing in a single season. Given his recent underwhelming numbers, Mahomes could be a steal in fantasy drafts. He’s in Tier 2 because we know what he’s capable of any given week.

Tier 3: The Underdogs

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Jared Goff is last season’s QB7, one of seven quarterbacks to average of 20.0 fantasy points per game. Since joining the Lions, Goff has seen an increase in passing yards and touchdowns each season. He sits behind one of the best offensive lines and has some of the best weapons in football. The biggest question mark in 2025 is how he fairs after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to take the Chicago Bears’ head coach job.

Trevor Lawrence has a make-or-break season ahead of him. Former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen is now the head coach in Jacksonville. Furthermore, Lawrence’s has a pair of young, talented receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. This combination of coaching and playmakers could make the Jaguars one of the more lucrative offenses for fantasy football.

Caleb Williams is also in prime position to succeed. The Bears significantly invested in their offensive line this off season after Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times as a rookie. Chicago also selected tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III with their first two picks of the 2025 draft. With the aforementioned Ben Johnson as his head coach, it could all come together quickly for Williams in 2025.

Kyler Murray possesses the rushing upside to yield significant success in fantasy football. Murray has an average of just over six rush attempts per game since entering the league. Though he’s surpassed 100 rush attempts just once in his career, his speed and ability to extend plays make him a threat to do so in 2025. If Murray can sync up consistently with both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride this season, he should finish inside the top 10 without issue.

Tier 4: The Sleepers

Justin Fields, New York Jets
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Don’t let the 12.0 points per game in all of 2024 fool you — in Weeks 1-6 as the starter, Fields averaged 19.1 points per game as the QB7. Fields hasn’t had an average of less than 19.0 points per game as a starter in any of the past three seasons for two different teams. He notably finished as the QB5 with 20.5 points per game in 2022. His 160 rush attempts for 1,143 yards is a massive reason why. It’s unlikely Fields runs as much with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis behind him in the Jets backfield, but he could find himself in a more serious QB1 conversation with any number of 100 rush attempts and throwing to Garrett Wilson, rookie tight end Mason Taylor and others in the passing game.

Justin Herbert enters 2025 with the best combination of coaching and offensive playmakers around him yet. Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton should do well and keep defenses honest behind a strong offensive line. Meanwhile, Herbert has Ladd McConkey, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston and rookie Tre Harris in his passing game arsenal. Herbert had back-to-back top-10 finishes in 2020 and 2021 including an overall QB2 finish. The potential is there.

Matthew Stafford is that “north of 30” veteran quarterback who will go late in fantasy drafts, but could win you your league. Stafford’s first season with the Rams in 2021 is his only full season since joining them. He is one of nine quarterbacks to average more than 20.0 fantasy points per game that season. In 2025, Stafford gets both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as his top targets. If this trio stays healthy, there’s a scenario in which Stafford leads the league in passing touchdowns as an overall QB1 candidate.

Dak Prescott is returning from a season-ending hamstring injury. It’s unclear how this will affect his mobility, but he’s had more than 60 rush attempts in a season just once since 2016. Dak averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game during the 2023 season. What makes him more of a sleeper than contender is his weapons. Beyond CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys have failed to surround Prescott with additional, legitimate weapons. There’s still a chance they do via trade, but as of now it’s Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo.

Tier 5: The Long Shots

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Brock Purdy would be the least surprising from this tier, but surprising nonetheless. He has QB8 and QB9 finishes over the last two seasons as the starter, but the odds feel stacked against him in 2025. If Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are healthy for the majority of the season, they and Purdy may all be huge values in 2025 fantasy drafts. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings will have to step up in the passing game for Purdy to maintain his top-10 status.

C.J. Stroud is looking to bounce back in 2025 after a brutal QB27 finish in 2024. According to FTN’s StatsHub, Stroud was the second-most sacked quarterback. He also ranks first in percentage of drop backs resulting in a pressure (34.8%) amongst quarterbacks to play eight games or more in. He only played four total games with all three of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell last season. The latter two will be replaced by Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel this season.

In three starts with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, the Falcons averaged 32.0 points per game in 2024. It’s a small sample size and not something to expect over a full 17-game season. However, Penix has the weapons around him to put up serious numbers as a starter. The Falcons defense allowed the 22^nd-most points per game (24.9) in 2024. If Penix is constantly playing catchup or in competitive games, the passing volume alone could support a strong season.

J.J. McCarthy has yet to play in a regular season game. The 22-year-old will begin the 2025 season as the starting quarterback after Sam Darnold signed with the Seahawks. The Vikings were 17^th in pass attempts per game (32.2) in 2024 after finishing third (39.5) and sixth (37.1) in 2022 and 2023 respectively. If head coach Kevin O’Connell lets McCarthy let it fly with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and others, it could be a special season.