SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 15

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview, recommended plays at each position as well as some GPP game stacks and best secondary correlations.

Week 14 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

It was just the third time in 14 weeks that a non-RB was used in the flex of a Red Zone GPP winner. The second consecutive week this has occurred. Congrats to Vose who took down the $20,000 first place prize. A uniquely correlated lineup where they used three Seahawks (Rashaad Penny, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett) but without the quarterback, Russell Wilson. Proud that my second recommended “secondary correlation” from last week’s article (Ja’Marr Chase and George Kittle) ended up in the optimal. 

Adamjaxin won the Gunslinger GPP with 199.55 points – the third time in four weeks where this tournament’s winning lineup did not surpass 200 points. A reminder to strongly consider the Gunslinger every week if you can afford to do so. Note the massive difference in average roster rate between the Red Zone’s winner (8.7%) and the Gunslinger’s winner (29.2%).

It was a great week for my Low % Gut Plays as all four inclusions ended up as beneficial inclusions in lineups – QB Russell Wilson, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Robby Anderson and TE Mark Andrews. On the contrary, my top chalky recommendations of Cam Newton, Josh Jacobs and Travis Kelce all fell severely short of expectations. 

Here is a quick peak at Week 15’s top GPPs for your entry consideration. Note that the total number of entries for the Red Zone has decreased by about 3,000 but that the top prize has been raised from $20,000 to $25,000.

Finally, here is an overview of the average team multiplier, total points and average roster rate of every winning Red Zone GPP lineup since Week 1. Since roster rate is the toughest to predict, we can focus on the other two when constructing lineups. Since each of the last four weeks of average team multipliers has been below 1.4x, it has brought the season average team multiplier down to 1.42x. 

Week 15 Preview

The wildest week of injury and COVID-19 news we have yet to witness. Hence, this slate is expected to be the wildest of rides. The Washington/Philadelphia and Seattle/LA Rams games have been moved to Tuesday, so we only have nine games on the main slate to worry about – six in the early window, three in the late. None of these games has a Vegas total above 50, and only the Arizona Cardinals have an implied team total of 30 or higher. Arizona Cardinals/Detroit Lions has the slate’s highest Vegas total (47.5), while Houston Texans/Jacksonville Jaguars (39.5) has the first total under 40 we have seen in quite some time. Oddly enough, it won’t stop SuperDrafters from having some action in the game. Six of 11 games have a point spread of seven or greater, which doesn’t bode well for competitive encounters. The only game with a spread under three points is Tennessee Titans/Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT favored by 1.5 at home).

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Expect huge popularity for Miami’s quarterback as well as a couple of his teammates. The absence of rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle (Reserve/COVID-19 List) certainly hurts Tagovailoa overall but helps accentuate exactly who to focus on in his target tree. That would be RB Myles Gaskin, WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki. A matchup against the New York Jets is something we’ve targeted with offenses all season and there is no reason to stop now. Tua’s 55% scoring bonus will make him this week’s primary target with roster rates greater than 30% in some contests. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

A date with the Atlanta Falcons has been a great spot for passing attacks all season. They allow the third-most SuperDraft points to enemy quarterbacks (22.4) and are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns served up (26). The only concerns with Jimmy Garoppolo are San Francisco’s dynamite running game (this week: Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel) and potential gamescript where the Niners are favored by 7.5 points. They have found themselves in competitive contests the last two weeks where Jimmy G threw for 296 and 2 TD last week and 299 with 2 TD (and 2 INT) the week prior. Another 250 and two touchdown passes at his 1.5x multiplier may just get the job done.

Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are listed as GPP plays since the combination of their base multipliers (1x each) and large point spreads in their team’s favor does not exactly point towards ceiling games. Should either of their opponents keep their respective games competitive, we may be looking at outright slate optimals. I’d take my chances on the Panthers keeping their tilt with the Bills tight more so than the Lions being able to hang with the Cardinals. If having to choose between the two, I’ll roll with Allen.

Tyler Huntley will come into play at 1.75x if Lamar Jackson won’t be able to play. Jackson hasn’t practiced this week but could certainly get the start if he feels good. The issue is that this game is in the late window, so we’d have to late-swap Huntley in for Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers or possibly Teddy Bridegwater – all of whom are playing in the late window.

Let’s not forget about Ben Roethlisberger, who I believe will have a roster rate over 10% and among the top-four most popular plays on the slate. Part of the reason is his high multiplier. Another reason is the tight point spread against the Titans. Yet another reason is his recent set of performances. He dropped 308-3-1 (25.82 SD base points) last week and averaged 250-2 in his previous three starts. I’m on board with him as a potential pivot off Tagovailoa. 

Favorite Plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Allen
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Jimmy Garoppolo

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Running Backs

This is hands-down the worst slate of running back options I can remember in several years. All the best-projected backs play outside of Sunday’s slate – Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs and Rhamondre Stevenson. We’re left with sketchy options, but a few possible diamonds stick out from the rough.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

It sure would be funny if JRob falters on Sunday. Considering just how popular he is going to be across all DFS formats. If you ask anyone on Twitter, James Robinson is going to absolutely smash. It all does seem to line up well for him: Urban Meyer is gone, and the Texans allow the most rushing yards per game (147.9) and the second-most rushing scores (22). Not to mention, the memories of Rashaad Penny doing their run defense dirty (16-137-2). It’s not enough to make Robinson the best play on paper but we should still be cautious about hitting the lock button on him. 

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Michael Carter, New York Jets

 Myles Gaskin will be a strong and popular cash play taking on the league’s most putrid run defense. The Jets allow the most SD points to RBs by a wide margin (Jets 32.8, Lions next worst at 27.5). Last month, Gaskin carried the ball a season-high 23 times in route to 97 all-purpose yards and a receiving touchdown. Any multiplier less than 1.2x and I’d be much less interested. On the opposite side of the ballgame, rookie Michael Carter intrigues greatly in his return from IR. I’ll lock him in to at least 10% of MME lineups in the Red Zone with the possibility of outscoring Gaskin at the same multiplier. Head coach Robert Saleh anticipates a “significant role” for Carter in his return. With no Corey Davis or Elijah Moore in this game, expect Carter to see a high volume of targets out of the backfield. 

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers

Najee Harris will have the highest raw points projection on this slate almost anywhere you look and that’s the case here with me in a game against the Titans that is projected to be a close affair. The lone issue is a low multiplier (just a 10% points bonus) which should be made up for by his heavy volume and involvement. The rookie has at least 20 carries in seven of his last nine games and has scored nine touchdowns this season. I’m also expecting Jeff Wilson to be popular at his 1.55x multiplier and no Elijah Mitchell. Perhaps his recent box scores as a starter keep folks off him, but it’s unlikely as they’ll want to keep going back for more punishment. Luckily, I’m guaranteeing a touchdown and will be literally betting on him to do so. Jeff Wilson gets in the end zone this week.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos and others

The rest of this group will see lower roster rates, with possibly the exception of Javonte Williams, as it’s quite clear fantasy players would walk into oncoming traffic with the heralded rookie. An active Melvin Gordon be damned. The Bengals’ run defense is no walk in the park though (more like traffic). They are one of only six defenses holding opposing teams to under 100 rushing yards per game. I’d rather take a stab at a 1.6x D’Onta Foreman against a Steelers’ defense that has been getting shredded by opposing runners lately (24.1 SD points allowed per game is seventh most). Joe Mixon battles a fantastic Denver run D that has allowed a league-low seven scores on the ground this year. But Mixon is generally matchup proof because of volume, elusiveness and efficiency. Saquon Barkley is my sneaky low percentage play as I’d expect him to have a heavy workload against their division rivals, the Cowboys. A low multiplier but I could see easily see him leading this group of backs in base points.

Note: Chase Edmonds (1.5x) is expected to come off IR and play on Sunday. We will have to stay close to this situation as James Conner (ankle)  is questionable and may have his workload scaled back. The Lions present a gift of a matchup to Arizona running backs but with no clarity yet, it might be a situation to avoid in cash and to speculate on in GPPs.

Favorite Plays: James Robinson, Michael Carter, Myles Gaskin, Najee Harris, Jeff Wilson
Low-Percentage Gut Play: D’Onta Foreman, Saquon Barkley

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s hard to not strongly consider Diontae Johnson for your primary lineups, regardless of expected roster rate. He is averaging 18.7 base SD points over his last four games and has seen at least 10 targets in a whopping 10-of-12. Among wideouts, he ranks fourth in targets (130), ninth in receptions (81) and 10th in receiving yards (990). He will battle with Tennessee cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Buster Skrine on the perimeters. Though Skrine has been respectable in coverage in comparison to previous seasons, his coverage sets up for an extremely advantageous spot for Johnson.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Disregard the fact that we don’t get a bonus on his fantasy points. He is still the league’s most productive wideout of the last few seasons and will have his man Aaron Rodgers (three straight 300+ yard games) ready to pepper Davante Adams with his usual compliment of targets. Adams has posted lines of 13-10-121-2, 9-8-104-0, 8-7-115-2 over his last three. The Ravens allow the second-most receiving yards per game (280) and the highest YPR-against (13.0). 

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

Russell Gage should be a popular high-multiplier play as a bring-back on lineups that plan to deploy a couple pieces of the 49ers’ offense. He has averaged over eight targets over his last three games and is just two weeks removed from a monster 12-11-130-0 line. He should find himself in the coverage of K’Waun Williams quite frequently but will hopefully find himself facing off against washed veteran Josh Norman and overmatched rookie Ambry Thomas (hopefully he clears concussion protocol in time).

DeVante Parker/Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins

One of DeVante Parker or Mike Gesicki will assume the role of receiving alpha with Jaylen Waddle sidelined. Parker is the better bet with the higher multiplier though. In his return from a five-game absence last week, Parker caught all five targets for 62 yards. In his last game back in Week 8, he saw 11 targets and dropped an 8-85-0 line. There is nothing stopping us from playing multiple Dolphins on this slate and we can comfortably game-stack Tagovailoa with two of Parker, Gesicki and Gaskin. If you are building 20-plus lineups, don’t forget about the speedy Albert Wilson, whose multiplier checks in at 1.95x and saw 14 targets over his past two games. I’ll certainly be including him in game stacks myself.

Marvin Jones/Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars

Laquon Treadwell has the more appealing multiplier, but it isn’t by much. Marvin Jones has a bit of a narrative with all the attention from the Urban Meyer fallout. Their stat lines were similar last week: Jones caught 6-of-7 for 70 yards while Treadwell caught 4-of-6 for 68. The Jaguars aren’t exactly that much more superior than the Texans and there’s no reason to think they’ll run away with this game. In fact, if Houston takes a lead, there’s the possibility that running back James Robinson ends up on the low end of carries and it’s one of the wideouts who has the big day. Keep in mind this one has that 39.5-point Vegas total so we may not want to get carried away with loading up on this contest. One thing I’m certain of is that Trevor Lawrence stacks are going to be heavily under-utilized this week. That’s probably a good thing but there’s that small percentage chance it ends up as the stack that brings home 25 large.

Favorite Plays: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, DeVante Parker, Deebo Samuel
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Brandin Cooks, Albert Wilson

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Tight Ends

Roster rates will gravitate toward three primary options this week – George Kittle, Dawson Knox and Mike Gesicki. Anyone else can be considered “contrarian.” Kittle has been a fantasy darling over the last couple weeks (15-13-151-1 in Week 14, 12-9-181-2 in Week 13). They said he couldn’t repeat his Week 13 performance, but he nearly did. This matchup against the Falcons may not be as competitive though so Kittle ending up with under 20 base points is the most likely scenario.

Dawson Knox has taken offensive snaps at the third-highest rate at the position over the last four weeks (95.2%). Just that one off-game in Week 13 against the Patriots but otherwise has seen the fourth-most targets among TEs (28) this past month. He boasts a high 1.6x multiplier and possibly a greater target share with Emmanuel Sanders expected to miss this game.

Mike Gesicki falls in third or fourth in terms of roster rate on this slate given the matchup with the Jets and Jaylen Waddle out. Gesicki hasn’t topped 10 base points or 60 yards since Week 7. He managed a mediocre 6-5-50-0 when they played the Jets last month, but we should certainly expect a better stat line with he and DeVante Parker as Tagovailoa’s primary reads on passing plays.

Mark Andrews delivered big-time last week (11-11-115-1) with Tyler Huntley under center most of the game last week. The Packers allow just 9.2 SD points to tight ends this season any tight ends of relevance this season besides Travis Kelce (8-5-68-1 in Week 9). With most of the SuperDrafters who pay down at the position leaning towards Kittle, Andrews serves as a solid pivot in a game that might end up being a close battle.

Most have given up on rookie Kyle Pitts in DFS this year. Just one touchdown this season (way back in Week 5) and his only time exceeding 50 receiving yards in the last four weeks was against the Panthers in Week 14. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 9. If he takes a GPP player to the Promised Land, so be it. I’d rather focus on the options above or take a stab at a 1.6x Pat Freiermuth or 2x James O’Shaughnessy. 

Favorite Plays: Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki, George Kittle
Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Mark Andrews

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Favorite Game Stacks

1. Miami Dolphins Onslaught + Michael Carter (Jets)

Tua Tagovailoa + Carter + 2 of DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Albert Wilson, Mike Gesicki

2. San Francisco 49ers/Atlanta Falcons

Jimmy Garoppolo + 2 of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle + 1 of Cordarrelle Patterson/Russell Gage

3. Buffalo Bills Onslaught + DJ Moore (Panthers)

Josh Allen + Moore + 2 of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox

4. Tennessee Titans/Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger + Diontae Johnson + Julio Jones (1.45x)

5. Green Bay Packers/Baltimore Ravens

Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams + 1 of Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown (1.45x)

Favorite Secondary Correlations

1. James Robinson (JAX) + Brandin Cooks (HOU)
2. Myles Gaskin (MIA) + DeVante Parker (MIA)
3. Stefon Diggs (BUF) + DJ Moore (CAR)
4. Deebo Samuel (SF) + Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)
5. Jeff Wilson (SF) + Russell Gage (ATL)
6. D’Onta Foreman (TEN) + Diontae Johnson (PIT)
7. Davante Adams (GB) + AJ Dillon (GB)
8. Myles Gaskin (MIA) + Michael Carter (NYJ)
9. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) + Saquon Barkley (NYG)
10. Javonte Williams (DEN) + Tee Higgins (CIN)

I’m back from vacation, so I’ll see you Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET as I join Javi Prellezo and host Zac Graham for the SuperDraft Sunday Study livestream.