SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 12

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 11 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

A super-low percentage pairing of Cardinals (Colt McCoy and Zach Ertz) poured it on in the late-game window for the Red Zone winner, lilProg. It was just the second time this season that a GPP winner played a QB with a multiplier higher than 1.5x (Tua Tagovailoa – 1.55x in Week 7). No bringback from the Seahawks in their lineup though they rostered the slate-breaker – a 6.3% Jonathan Taylor. They used a running back in the flex as now a running back has been utilized in the flex in 10-of-11 Red Zone GPP winning lineups this season. The lone exception was Week 9’s winner who played Keenan Allen there.

The winner of the Gunslinger GPP did not need Taylor. Their only player with a multiplier over 1.25x was ‘naked’ Cam Newton (1.45x). Shout out to Frazier for taking it down, compiling nearly 70 less points than what was needed to win the Red Zone. Our guy, 3x Milly Maker winner TwoGun, came in fourth and eighth in the contest and I came in seventh. Ironically, TwoGun’s fourth-place lineup had Tagovailoa, not Aaron Rodgers. 

Week 12 Preview

Here are the primary GPP contests to consider entering this weekend:

If you are feeling frisky and confident, SuperDraft has a single-entry contest with a $324 entry fee. Just 12 total spots and has a very rational and spread-out prize pool: $1,600 for first place, $1,000 for second, $800 for third, $600 for fourth.

Let’s take a quick look at historical data for the season. Listed below are the average team multipliers, total points and average roster percentage of the 11 winning Red Zone GPP lineups thus far:

Note that we haven’t had an average multiplier lower than 1.35x since Week 2 – back when our 2021 season outlook was much less settled and we leaned more on lower-multiplier studs. No winning lineup has ever crossed the 1.6x threshold which is a reminder that we don’t have make too many dart throws on the less reliable plays. Our weekly total points for the season comes in at a nice and round 250, which is our usual target when building lineups. With the weather getting cooler and tougher game environments afoot, we shouldn’t be surprised to see winning lineups end up more consistently in the 215- to 235-point range. 

Roster percentage is the most difficult for us to project since this data isn’t readily available. The more we play SuperDraft, the more accurately we are able to project roster percentage ranges. I will always do my best to point out the chalky plays each week.

This set of Sunday games is a bit of a hangover slate following our three-game Thanksgiving bonanza. With only one game projected for more than 50 total points (Buccaneers/Colts, 53), this feels like a low-scoring slate that may not require this season’s average of 250 team fantasy points. On the bright side, none of the 10 games on Sunday’s slate have a team favored by more than seven points. Hopefully, that means more competitive contests where hitting on the right low-percentage game stack could pay dividends. 

Interesting to note that this is the first week that the Rams have an implied total less than 25 this season (facing the Packers, in Green Bay). There are no teams with more than Tampa Bay’s 28 implied points. The only teams implied for 25 or more besides the Bucs are the San Francisco 49ers (26.25), New England Patriots (25.5), Los Angeles Chargers (25.25) and Indianapolis Colts (25). Among those teams, I’d expect the most popular QB-WR pairing to be Indy’s – Carson Wentz (1.35x) with Michael Pittman (1.45x). 

Quarterbacks

No high-multiplier quarterbacks for us to throw darts at this week. No true standouts on this slate with that perfect blend of advantageous matchup and multipliers so roster rates will likely remain flat with no one above 25%.

Cash

There are three running quarterbacks at the top with Cam Newton, Jalen Hurts and Tyrod Taylor, which provides a higher floor in cash games. All three should be focal points in GPPs as well. Technically, Taylor isn’t as much of a scrambler anymore, but he ran in two scores last week and now has three in five starts. Taylor would rarely ever fit the mold of “cash-game safe,” but he certainly does on this nasty slate with a solid matchup against a New York Jets’ defense that allows the most passing yards per game (282.2) and highest YPA (8.4) this season. Absolutely fine to pair him with target hog wideout Brandin Cooks (1.45x) in all formats and consider rookie Nico Collins (2x) for double-stacking in GPPs. 

Newton’s opponent (the Dolphins) allows the sixth-most SuperDraft points to QBs (21.8). This game has a low Vegas total (42 points) but just a two-point spread, which should hopefully keep this game competitive throughout. We should be a tad worried about Cam getting vultured by Christian McCaffrey rushing scores. If the Panthers only score three touchdowns and CMC runs in two of those, Newton lineups can easily go bust-o. 

Hurts had those three rushing scores last week, which will be fresh in the minds of all SuperDrafters. Those 30.78 base points in Week 11 was just the third time this season he has surpassed the 25-point mark. Hurts has averaged 163 passing yards per game over his last seven and has thrown less than two touchdown passes in five of those games. The New York Giants have allowed the second-fewest QB rush attempts this season (30). Though they haven’t faced a scrambler of Hurts’ ilk yet this season, it should be pretty clear to us all that the Giants’ defensive line will be focused on limiting him. 

Tyrod Taylor is my preferred pick of this trio.

GPP and MME

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (fade)

I see this week’s projections for him across the industry (they’re high). I realize Herbert is a stud with great weapons. But I don’t feel strong enough with him against the Broncos to get nothing more than the 10% stat bump he offers. Both teams are fast-paced, and this game could certainly hit the 50s. The issue is that I have much respect for this Broncos’ defense, and this just doesn’t feel like a ceiling spot for Herbert. The Broncos are tied for the third-lowest SuperDraft points-per-game average to QBs (17.4), they’ve allowed just two 300-yard passers (Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson) and no quarterback has thrown more than two TD passes against them this season (tied for third-fewest pass TDs thrown against them). He’s going need to throw for 300 and 3 TD to end up in the optimal lineup. Love the player, don’t love the play this week. If he’s chalk, I’m fading.

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

If Jonathan Taylor can run like a train through Buffalo’s defense, he could surely do the same against the Bucs. But I don’t believe we see anything from Taylor this week that even closely resembles last week’s barrage. With the slate’s high projected total in a game that should be competitive and tight, I’m more interested in the pass game connections. Wentz, with his reasonable mid-range multiplier in a game where passing (to keep up) will be required, gives this a feel of a ceiling spot for the former second overall pick in 2016. That would mean Michael Pittman will likely be taken along for the ride.

All in all, this has been a very negative section as I’m seemingly focusing on all of what could go wrong. I’m interested in pairing Jimmy Garoppolo with Deebo Samuel in what could be a fast-paced affair with the Vikings though playing Deebo on his is probably the wiser move with his ascension in the Niners’ run game. Teddy Bridgewater is mostly a multiplier play hoping he can hit for 250-2-0 in comeback mode. Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford would be atop this list if not for their low multipliers. Without the rushing upside we would need one of those ‘A’ games from them (i.e., 400 yards, 4 pass TDs). I’d rather stack them on secondary GPP builds in game stacks. As for Stafford, it was nice to see the Packers’ secondary come back down to earth a bit against the Vikings last Sunday. I’ve felt that they have been playing over their heads since their top corner Jaire Alexander went down. The Packers aren’t a defense for Stafford and this awesome pass offense to fear.

Chalkiest Plays:

• Cam Newton
• Jalen Hurts
• Justin Herbert

Favorite Plays: Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Matthew Stafford

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Running Backs

Cash

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Not that game flow matters much to CMC, since he will be heavily involved regardless, but this matchup sets up well for the Panthers to control it — especially on the defensive end, as they face a dead last ranked Dolphins’ offensive line. McCaffrey scored 21.1 base points in Week 10 (didn’t play in the fourth quarter) and 21.4 points last week, averaging 8.5 receptions on nine targets in those games. Running backs average at least five receptions per game against Miami and 21 points feels like the floor for McCaffrey. He is my top overall point producer this Sunday with 30-plus points well within the realm of possibilities.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

No one is expecting a barnburner here between the Steelers and Bengals, especially with how slow the Bengals have been pacing over the last month and the fact that these two teams for 34 points back in Week 3 (this game has a 44.5-point total). The Steelers lost that one 24-10. If you recall, that was the massive Najee Harris receiving outlier outing where he dropped a 14-102-0 receiving line on a massive 19 targets. Even 10 targets for Harris this week might be a stretch (averaging 3.75 over his last four) but we should expect another heavy workload. Only Jonathan Taylor has more carries this season (193 to 188), and Harris is second among backs in targets (62) and receptions (49). He has found paydirt in seven of 10 games this season and is in a great spot to top 25 base points on Sunday. A similar case can be made for Mixon, who has scored two touchdowns in each of his last three games. Mixon will be slightly more popular given his recent success and after seeing what Austin Ekeler did to the Steelers last week.

GPP and MME

Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Very similar to the Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard issue in Dallas where anyone with eyeballs recognizes how much more explosive the “backup” (Pollard) is. No one doubts Williams’ studliness and everyone is waiting for that massive breakout game. Just because we keep pining for it doesn’t mean we are going to get it. Especially when he splits carries with veteran Gordon, and Gordon has been no slouch this year. Over their last four games, the two of them have split snaps fairly evenly (51%-49% in favor of Gordon) but Gordon has four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) while Williams has none. As far as carries inside the 10-yard line over that span, Gordon has seven to Williams’ five. If one of them were to miss a game, we’d have a smash, chalky play. But with both healthy, there is no reason to expect anything other than a timeshare going forward. Williams’ multiplier is much more enticing, but Gordon feels like the sharper and lower-rostered play this week. Gordon didn’t exact much “revenge” against the Chargers last season (26-105-1 rushing in two games), but the Chargers’ run defense wasn’t as forgiving then as it is this season (fourth in SD points allowed – 25.4). We must also keep game flow in mind. In theory, if the Chargers get off to a 10- or 14-point lead, the Broncos may focus on airing it out. Though it may not be effective as the Broncos might just pound the rock with their dynamic duo. I do expect this game to stay somewhat close and for one of these running backs to smash. I don’t have a crystal ball and can make a case for either but will lean in Gordon’s direction.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

He has been limited for two weeks now with an ankle injury and missed Atlanta’s Week 11 outing. If healthy, he’s a fantastic under-the-radar play in a game that is likely to get much DFS attention outside of Kyle Pitts. Patterson averaged a massive 18.4 SD base points in the seven-game stretch between Week 2 and Week 9 and could find his way onto the optimal Red Zone lineup for the fourth time this season.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Sanders is an intriguing pivot off Jalen Hurts, the rushing touchdown monster. Eagles owning a massive advantage over the Giants both offensively and defensively. Now the Giants will be without several key players (Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Rudolph), so everything seems to point in the direction of a bloodbath for Philly. With Jordan Howard, Sanders will have less competition for carries and might actually, finally, find his way into the end zone for the first time this season. Last week, Sanders hit a season high in carries (16) and rushing yards (94). Let’s hope Hurts’ rushing touchdown pace cools off and that Sanders gets the opportunity he deserves. 

Dontrell Hilliard, Tennessee Titans

This feels like a bit of point chasing following his surprise 10-target, eight-reception Titans’ near-debut last week (he did play 16 special-teams snaps in Week 8). But at the max multiplier and in a gamescript projecting toward Patriots’ domination, Hilliard could see a ton of work again as a pass-catching back. The Titans won’t have A.J. Brown or Jeremy McNichols Sunday. After releasing Adrian Peterson, it’s just D’Onta Foreman and Hilliard in the backfield with gamescript easily leaning Hilliard’s direction. The NFL in 2021 is a wild and unpredictable beast but it would be one of the biggest shocks of the season if the Titans played with a lead this Sunday. Hilliard should be on our short list of plays for GPPs this weekend.

Chalkiest Plays:

• Christian McCaffrey
• Joe Mixon
• Miles Sanders
• Javonte Williams

Favorite Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, Melvin Gordon, Miles Sanders, Cordarrelle Patterson
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Rhamondre Stevenson

Wide Receivers

Cash

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Deebo is quickly becoming a cheat code a la running quarterback but as a wideout. In the absence of Elijah Mitchell last week, Samuel had eight rush attempts for 79 yards. The prior week, five carries for 36 yards in addition to 5-97-1 receiving. He has now scored rushing touchdowns in consecutive games and may see five or more carries again regardless of whether Mitchell misses. We get a 25% bonus on his base points and an extremely high ceiling against a Vikings’ secondary that allows the second most SD points (36.1). He’s my all-around favorite play on the slate.

Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

It’s interesting to see the Rams implied for under 25 points. They play a slow-paced Packers squad, but there’s no doubt that this the type of game that could shoot out given how studly these pass offenses are. Kupp is a consideration each and every week as the league’s top wideout but no bonus on his points means he needs to score more than his 22.9 SD season average to end up in the optimal lineup. It’s why Jefferson at 1.8x is super intriguing. Jefferson has scored just once this season but has seen nearly seven targets per game over his last four. It’s hard to justify Odell Beckham as a better receiver than Jefferson right now and OBJ is still getting his feet wet in this offense. Jefferson works best in a Rams/Packers game stack but I would consider him as a late-window one-off as my WR3 to help balance out some lower multiplier plays.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pittman is the Colts’ alpha and will be a popular play in what is expected to be the slate’s highest scoring game. Prior to last week’s dud, he averaged 81.5 receiving yards and scored four touchdowns over a four-game span. The Bucs are banged up in their secondary and are a pass-funnel defense that could get out-hustled by the 6-foot-4 second-rounder out of USC. A 6-90-1 performance is within reason and would give him over 26 points with the 1.45x multiplier. That’s great for Tampa Bay/Indianapolis game stacks where many will lean on running back Jonathan Taylor on the Colts’ side. Godwin’s 1.4x multiplier will make him an incredibly popular play, but I do believe it’s wise to balance some lineups out with Evans (1.35x), who is tied with Kupp for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (10). Per FTN’s Advanced DVP Tool, the Colts allow 8.1 receptions per game to perimeter wideouts this season as cornerbacks Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin have been consistently burned this season. Evans will fall in under 10% rostered despite the strong matchup and should be a strong consideration for primary lineups Sunday.

GPP and MME

• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – Great multiplier, nice pairing with QB Tyrod Taylor
• Corey Davis, New York Jets – Won’t get much love with Elijah Moore in the mix
• Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars – Off the map for weeks and will burn ATL’s secondary for at least one TD
• Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – Matchup not ideal, but projected gamescript is and he’s due for a big one
• Kenny Golladay, New York Giants – Only for the true maniacs; this should be the bounceback game

Favorite Plays: Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Brandin Cooks, Van Jefferson
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Marvin Jones

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Tight Ends

Cash

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

No Eric Ebron again, a fabulous multiplier and 11 red zone targets over his last four games. Freiermuth will be the most popular tight end on the slate and is a tough fade. I’ll be heavy in my exposure to him.

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He wasted no time in his first full game since Week 3 last week by catching 6-of-8 targets for 71 yards. We know this game will be heavily targeted by DFS’ers, but Gronkowski might be under-rostered due to the Freiermuth chalk and fabulous multipliers on Gronk’s teammates, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Colts allow the fifth-most SD points to the position (13.4). They allowed 6-80-0 to Dawson Knox last week, 5-67-0 to Dan Arnold the week before that and 11-147-2 to Mark Andrews in Week 5.

GPP and MME

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

A goal-line maven, Henry has at least one red-zone target in nine of 11 games and is tied with Dawson Knox for the position lead in touchdowns with seven. Dealing with a neck injury but should play in this one. Though I wouldn’t be shocked if teammate Jonnu Smith was targeted in the red zone more often than usual as he faces his former team. Smith has a lower multiplier than Henry (1.45x) and will be less rostered on less than 1% of Red Zone entries. Only works for those building 150.

Ryan Griffin, New York Jets

A true MME play but at 2x could end up in the optimal if he gets into the end zone. The Texans allows the sixth-most SD points to the position (12.7) as opposing tight ends average a 5.3-60-0.6 stat line against them. Griffin hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game this season but saw four targets last week and seven targets in Week 9.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Not a fan of  Engram the fantasy player as he offers very little upside. But something’s got to give in a game where the Giants will be playing from behind and many key playmakers will be out. He could catch six balls and post a ceiling game at his decent multiplier against this Eagles team that ranks dead last against tight ends this season (16.1 SD points).

Chalkiest Plays:

• Pat Freiermuth
• Kyle Pitts
• Dan Arnold

Favorite Plays: Pat Freiermuth, Rob Gronkowski
Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Evan Engram

Favorite Game Stacks

1. Indianapolis Colts/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady + 2 of Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski + Michael Pittman

2. Los Angeles Rams/Green Bay Packers

Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Van Jefferson + Davante Adams

3. Minnesota Vikings/San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo + Deebo Samuel + Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook

4. New York Jets/Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor + Brandin Cooks + Corey Davis (or Elijah Moore)

This will be the first week all season where I’m not a fan of game stacks and will jumble favorite plays from player pool.

Secondary Correlations

1. Mike Evans or Rob Gronkowski (TB) + Michael Pittman or Jonathan Taylor (IND)
2. Joe Mixon (CIN) + Najee Harris or Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
3. Cooper Kupp (LAR) + Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) or Van Jefferson (LAR) + Davante Adams (GB)
4. Deebo Samuel (SF) + Dalvin Cook (MIN)
5. Brandin Cooks (HOU) + Corey Davis (NYJ)
6. Keenan Allen (LAC) + Jerry Jeudy or Melvin Gordon (DEN)
7. Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) + Marvin Jones or Laviska Shenault (JAX)

See you all Sunday at 11 a.m. ET for the SuperDraft super show with me, host Zac Graham and Javi Prellezo.