SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 11

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 10 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside my best lineup that finished 12th in the field of 7,436 entries.

The lowest team roster percentage on a winning team this season (6.9%) as RodHood took the Red Zone GPP down. He did so with 224.6 total points which is the third lowest winning score this season (last week’s 193.84 was the lowest). Eagles’ wideout DeVonta Smith cracked the winning lineup for a second straight week as he was one of five players RodHood utilized under a 5% roster rate. He fully faded the low-multiplier running backs on a week where there were plenty. Instead, he rode to glory with Michael Carter (1.75x), Melvin Gordon (1.45x) and Week 10 slate difference-maker, Rhamondre Stevenson (1.9x, 52.06 FP). No offensive player from the Chargers to balance out a mini-stack of Kirk Cousins and Tyler Conklin (two touchdowns on 1.7x).

I built 49 lineups by hand, going mainly off players my article last week. I pivoted to Rhamondre Stevenson on just six of those lineups an hour before lock once the Damien Harris inactive news was confirmed, and he was the key to my 12th-place finish. I was heavily exposed to CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs, both of whom helped me tremendously. But had about 25% of my entries invested in the Tom Brady/Mike Evans combo. They combined for just 33.75 points in a surprise defeat at the hands of the Washington Football Team. None of my Brady lineups cashed though all six of my Trevor Siemian (1.75x) and Mason Rudolph (2x) teams did. On to the next one.

Week 11 Preview

Here are the primary GPP entries to consider multi-entering this week:

Our Week 11 slate has 12 games, with three in the late window — most notably, the showdown between two offensive powerhouses in the Dallas Cowboys/Kansas City Chiefs game. It is the only game this Sunday with a betting total greater than 50, at a whopping 56 as of late Thursday evening. Another game we should expect to be heavily stacked is the Cincinnati Bengals/Las Vegas Raiders tilt – a 50-point total where the Bengals are one-point road favorites. 

The Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears (45 total, Ravens -2) will see reasonable exposure as well. Especially with Bears’ rookie Justin Fields whose multiplier is set at a generous 1.7x. The Green Bay Packers/Minnesota Vikings intradivisional tilt (47.5, GB -1.5) should get a bit of love as well. Finally, expect the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets (45, MIA -3.5) to get some stack action too. The seven primary non-quarterbacks in this game are reasonably multiplied between 1.5x and 1.8x. Mike Gesicki (1.5x), Jaylen Waddle (1.55x) and Myles Gaskin (1.5x) for Miami. Michael Carter (1.55x), Corey Davis (1.5x), Jamison Crowder (1.55x) and rookie Elijah Moore (1.75x) for the Jets. Miami’s side will be the more heavily utilized one since Tua Tagovailoa boasts a 1.55x multiplier and no one outside of 150-maxers will touch Joe Flacco at 1.75x.

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Quarterbacks

Cash

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

The only man standing in the way of Prescott leading all quarterbacks in raw fantasy points is his running back, Ezekiel Elliott, who is always a threat to walk in for a touchdown or two. It’s a pivotal matchup for Dak, who can become a strong contender in the MVP race if the Cowboys can pull this one off. The Chiefs have been abysmal on defense this season and rank 31st in DVOA to quarterbacks. Prescott averages nearly 295 passing yards per game and is second in completion percentage (70.3%). It would be shocking if this game didn’t turn into a full aerial affair where Prescott approached 40 base points.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Top raw points play on the slate against a Bears’ defense that ranks 24th in DVOA pass defense. We may see “Angry Lamar” fresh off 10 days’ rest coming off a disappointing performance in a loss to the Dolphins. Jackson is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards (639, 71 per game) and has topped 30 SD base points three times this season.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

A friendly 1.55x multiplier and matchup against a porous Jets’ defense will lean many GPP players in Tua’s direction this week. His running back (Myles Gaskin) will be a popular play since the Jets allow the most SuperDraft points per game to the position (36.7) but we should still expect to see plenty of Tagovailoa and Waddle or Gesicki builds. This doesn’t quite feel like a ceiling game (300-plus pass yards, 3-plus TDs) though, and I don’t plan on being overexposed to Tua given the depth of the position and alternative options this week. Fine for cash games though because of his expected floor due to the multiplier.

GPP and MME

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears 

Fields has looked sharper in his last couple of outings against tough opponents (49ers, Steelers), throwing for a career-high 291 yards last week and averaging seven rush attempts for 74 rushing yards in those outings. The multiplier makes it difficult to stay away from him and he will easily be one of the three most popular on the slate. Though I have strong doubts that he ends up on optimal lineup, I may not fight against his high multiplier and mix him into some lineups.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans 

A contrarian and possibly sneaky play as he won’t be rostered by more than 5% of SuperDraft lineups. A strong matchup against a Houston defense allowing the sixth-most SuperDraft points to QBs (22). The Texans are 10-point underdogs but with Derrick Henry out, this may end up closer than most think. Last season, the two teams averaged nearly 80 combined points in their two matchups and Tannehill threw four TD passes in one of them. Obviously, two completely different offenses so we’re not expecting a massive shootout, but it still may be a competitive affair. Something has to give with Tennessee’s offense that’s been dead last in explosive play rate since Henry went down. I’ll be pairing him with potential slate-breaker A.J. Brown on a few lineups with a Brandin Cooks bring-back and mixing them in with some strong, chalky correlations.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 

Fresh off a bye week where the Bengals should lean on their pass in what is expected to be a fast-paced and competitive matchup. The Joe Mixon factor looms as he is always capable of wiping off a bit of luster from Burrow’s stat line. Mixon has caught two TD receptions from Burrow and has baselined a 4-for-45 receiving line in three of his last four games. If stacking this game, Burrow with Mixon and a Bengals’ wideout is in play.

Jalen Hurts at a 1.4 multiplier is tempting but he’s not a priority against the Saints’ strong defense. Aaron Rodgers might be in for a bounceback performance in a game where most will be focusing on young running back AJ Dillon.

Chalkiest Plays:

• Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Favorite Play: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Running Backs

Cash

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers 

McCaffrey was on his way to a monster outing last week but didn’t get the opportunity to finish the game as his right hamstring acted up. All in all, 161 yards from scrimmage and 10 catches in their 34-10 trouncing of the Cardinals. The Washington Football Team has served up a league-high seven receiving touchdowns to enemy backs and the likely insertion of Cam Newton should serve CMC well. 

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Cook tilted those who rostered him against the Chargers last week. Though he finished the game with a tick under 20 base points, he was stuffed from inside the 5-yard line four times. What’s amazing is the amount of high-value touches he has seen lately – nine carries inside the 5 and 18 in the red zone, overall, in his last two games. Cook shockingly has just three rushing touchdowns this season but loves playing the Packers. He scored five rushing touchdowns in two games against them last season. 

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

Both will be chalky in Week 11, but there’s a high possibility of chalk getting busted. We can play them together in cash game builds, but I’d be weary of doing so in GPPs. The good news for Gaskin is that the Jets have allowed a league-high 19 rushing scores and their differential in SD points allowed to backs from the next worst teams is massive (Jets – 36.7, Jets/Seahawks – 27.9). Gaskin’s stat lines have been incredibly inconsistent from week-to-week, but this matchup sets up for him to clear 70 yards on the ground for the first time this season and hopefully catch a few balls. Kansas City’s Williams will be incredibly popular after his 9-101-1 receiving line last Sunday night but the Cowboys’ run defense is no sieve. They allow the sixth-least SD PPG to running backs (19.1) and only two backs have topped 100 yards on the ground against them (Damien Harris, Javonte Williams). Williams’ monster receiving line last week was a massive outlier that DFS’ers will overvalue and if he doesn’t get into the end zone on Sunday, he’ll be a fabulous fade.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

I’m a huge fan of Conner this week where he might be a touch overlooked after a middling performance where he carried the ball just 10 times because of the negative game flow. Conner has found paydirt six times in his last three games and now leads the league with 11 rushing scores. Chase Edmonds is still on IR, Eno Benjamin is limited in practice this week with a groin issue and Jonathan Ward has a concussion. Edmonds should be in for a massive workload against a Seahawks’ squad that allows the second most SD points (27.9) and most receiving yards per game (74) to running backs.

GPP and MME

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

He should be added to the player pool at 1.15x Friday as he comes off the Reserve/COVID-10 List. The matchup against the Lions’ bottom-three run defense could lead to a ceiling game for Chubb, but we do have to be mindful of D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson has been excellent in games without Chubb and it’s quite possible that the two split snaps more evenly than those playing Chubb would want. For this reason, GPP only.

D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans

Intriguing at his 1.8x multiplier in what will be likely positive game flow for the Titans and plenty of red-zone opportunities. He slightly outsnapped and outcarried both Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols last week and was the dominant runner of the trio which could give coach Mike Vrabel confidence in utilizing him more this week. Not to mention, the matchup is against his former squad. One of my favorite plays of the weekend, especially with Jeremy McNichols still not practicing because of a concussion he sustained on Sunday.

Jeffery Wilson, San Francisco 49ers

No interest in Wilson whatsoever if Elijah Mitchell plays. If Mitchell doesn’t, I’ll be including Wilson in at least 15% of GPP lineups in a game the Niners should dominate and provide him with scoring opportunities. 

D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon are all dominant forces on their respective teams and deserve consideration for our lineups this week. The question surrounding Swift is who the quarterback will be. With veteran backup Tim Boyle trending toward starting, we have to ask ourselves: Is this really a downgrade from Jared Goff? We saw Steelers’ QB fill-in Mason Rudolph put up enough fantasy points to land on the winning Gunslinger lineup last week, which may tempt a few to roll with Boyle if he gets added to the player pool at a 2x multiplier.

Chalkiest Plays: 

• Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
• Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
• Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Favorite Plays: 

• James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
• Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
• Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
• Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
• D’Onta Foreman, Tennessee Titans

Low-Percentage Gut Play: Jeffery Wilson, San Francisco 49ers (if Mitchell is out)

Wide Receivers

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE:

Amari Cooper (DAL) is out. CeeDee Lamb pops up into the top three and becomes a strong (and popular) cash play. Expect TE Dalton Schultz’s roster rate to jump from the 10% range to over 20%. Dallas wideout Michael Gallup (1.55x) will pop up into the 13-18% rate now in the Red Zone now.

Cash

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

He’s my CeeDee Lamb of this week — aka, my most rostered wideout this week. Back-to-back difficult matchups with the Rams and Saints, the latter shut him down for a 1-16-0 line on four targets. Well, it is time for one of the game’s top Alpha’s to throw a plate of glass at this slate and break it. So long as he doesn’t give in to his Chipotle urges. Texans’ perimeter defenders Desmond King and Terrance Mitchell will be decimated by AJB in what should be a magical bounceback performance.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Most importantly, let’s monitor his practice participation the rest of this week and confirm that his shoulder injury doesn’t limit him. Otherwise, we’re looking at a spot Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams usually get in sync and go on hyperdrive. Adams compiled massive numbers against the Vikings last season (14-156-1 in Week 1 of 2020, 7-53-3 in Week 8) and offers immense upside even at his flat multiplier.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs

We’re going to want hefty exposure to this game, especially in game stack form. It will be uncomfortable to do so without ‘TyFreak,’ who ranks second at the position in targets (111), fourth in receiving yards (855) and 40.6 percent of his team’s air yards. Hill is averaging 13 targets per game over his last three and is expected to be an integral part of this fast-paced, high-flying aerial battle.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Samuel had his second two-touchdown performance in Week 10, leads the league in YAC (519) and already has three 150+ yard outings this season. He should be able to avoid the Jags’ only decent CB (Shaquill Griffin) on the majority of his routes and feast on rookie corner Tyson Campbell and slot man Rudy Ford.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Better suited for full PPR given his low aDOT (6.9 yards) and heavy target volume but this is balanced out positively here on SuperDraft with his 1.55x multiplier. He is who I’d prefer pairing with Tagovailoa this week against the Jets secondary.

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GPP and MME

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Expect a light roster rate for the beastly pass-catcher who just had his worst performance of the season (3-for-26 on eight targets). QB Russell Wilson was even rustier in his return than expected and we should expect a better outing this week. Pete Carroll reiterated his desire to run, run, run, but his wishes may not come to fruition in potential negative gamescript and no true running backs to rely on (Chris Carson is still on IR, Alex Collins didn’t practice Friday). Metcalf will run many of his routes against CB Marco Wilson and his gruesome 75% catches allowed rate. 

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

An advantageous matchup for the speedy wideout facing a Titans’ secondary allowing the most SD points to the position (38.9) by a wide margin (WAS next worst: 35.2). Cooks is responsible for 30% of team targets and 45% of air yards. With a bye week under their belt and extra practice time with Tyrod Taylor, it’s a good spot for Cooks to find his way onto optimal builds at a roster percentage under 10.

High Multiplier Options

• Rashod Bateman (1.75x), Baltimore Ravens
• Tre’Quan Smith (1.75x), New Orleans Saints
• Marcus Johnson (2x), Tennessee Titans
• Emmanuel Sanders (1.65x), Buffalo Bills
• Elijah Moore (1.75x), New York Jets

Favorite Plays: 

• A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
• Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
• Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Low-Percentage Gut Play: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Tight Ends

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE: Dalton Schultz (1.65x) launches into the top five tight ends with the news of Cooper being out. Schultz can be used in both cash and with your Cowboys’ stacks. Projecting him right around Hockenson now.

Cash

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Easily the highest rostered at the position given the generous 1.35x multiplier coming off back-to-back strong outings (6-101-1, 5-50-1). The Jaguars allow the 10th-most SuperDraft points to TEs (11.5), but Kittle is no ordinary tight end. Of course, there’s always an opportunity to beat the field with another tight end if this turns into a Deebo Samuel or 49ers’ RB game, so don’t lock yourself in on him. 

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

Plenty of SuperDrafters are going to balk on Hock despite a ridiculous 1.5x multiplier, and that would be a mistake. The Cleveland Browns are tough on opposing runners but get beat with ease through the air. They have faced a string of subpar tight ends for the most part but let Hunter Henry score twice on them last week and allowed Travis Kelce to drop a 6-76-2 line on them in Week 1. No matter whether it’s Goff, Tim Boyle or David Blough starting, expect an overcorrection from last week’s embarrassing goose egg where Hockenson only saw one target. Over the three previous three weeks, Hockenson saw 11, 9 and 11 targets. Hockenson hasn’t scored since Week 2 and is long overdue to find paydirt.

GPP and MME

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Knox was in the midst of a major breakout season until fracturing his hand in Week 6. He returned last week to a paltry 17-yard reception on just one target but should be more heavily involved against the Colts Sunday. Speaking of the Colts, they allow 10 receptions per game to the position, which is fourth most in the NFL. I’ll happily give him a spin over a much higher rostered Dan Arnold (1.75x) who has yet to find the end zone this season. Arnold has been heavily target and very efficient, averaging 5.6 receptions and 65 receiving yards in his last three but the Niners have been stingy to tight ends – bottom-four in receptions and yards allowed.

Chalky Plays:

• George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
• Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
• Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Favorite Play: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Favorite Game Stacks, and Secondary Correlations

• Dallas Cowboys/Kansas City Chiefs

Dak Prescott + 2 of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz + Tyreek Hill

• Baltimore Ravens/Chicago Bears

Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson + Cole Kmet + Rashod Bateman and/or Marquise Brown

• Tennessee Titans/Houston Texans

Ryan Tannehill + A.J. Brown + D’Onta Foreman + Brandin Cooks

• New York Jets/Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa + Myles Gaskin + 1 of Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki + 1 Jets WR (Jamison Crowder preferred)

• Cincinnati Bengals/Las Vegas Raiders

Joe Burrow + Joe Mixon + Tee Higgins + 1 of Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Secondary Correlations

1. Marquise Brown or Rashod Bateman (BAL) + Cole Kmet (CHI)
2. James Conner (ARI) + DK Metcalf (SEA)
3. A.J. Brown (TEN) + Brandin Cooks (HOU)
4. Davante Adams (GB) + Dalvin Cook (MIN)
5. Myles Gaskin (MIA) + Jamison Crowder (NYJ)
6. Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb (DAL) + Tyreek Hill or Darrel Williams (KC), Hill preferred
7. Nick Chubb (CLE) + T.J. Hockenson (DET)
8. D’Onta Foreman (TEN) + Brandin Cooks (HOU)

See you all Sunday at 11 a.m. ET for the SuperDraft super show with me, host Zac Graham and Javi Prellezo.