Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL spoils us in Week 12 with a standalone Black Friday game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. This rivalry continues the exciting matchups from Thanksgiving, which saw the Packers defeat the Lions, Cowboys crush the Commanders, and 49ers earn a comfortable victory over the Seahawks.
I found two values on two props today, one for each team. Let’s take a look at my favorite plays for this Black Friday matchup.
Week 12 Player Props
Tim Boyle Over 165.5 Passing Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tim Boyle is a 29-year-old journeyman who is playing for his fourth NFL team. Without a ton of experience to project his performance upon, this play comes down to the opponent and game flow.
Miami allows 220.6 passing yards per game and 228.0 passing yards on the road. This game carries a 9.5-point spread, which projects the Jets to experience a majority of negative gamescript. While Boyle has limited experience, he does have enough passing game weapons to beat this prop. Running back Breece Hall, wideout Garrett Wilson, tight end Tyler Conklin and wide receiver Allen Lazard are enough options to get Boyle to at least 170 passing yards.
Our FTN Bets Model projects Boyle for 209.9 passing yards, equating to a 29.9% edge. This is simply a play based on an NFL veteran against a pass defense that ranks 21st overall in defensive DVOA.
Raheem Mostert Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
(-114, BetRivers)
The most reliable part of the Jets defense has been their pass defense, ranking third overall in DVOA per FTN Fantasy. They are allowing a stout 178.7 passing yards per game, including just 165.3 passing yards per game in their last three contests. With teammate De’Von Achane not expected to play, look for Raheem Mostert to receive the necessary volume to beat this low total.
While Mostert was listed as questionable earlier this week, I expect him to play and carry a massive rushing share for Miami. He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season, second highest for all running backs. With Achane leaving last week’s game against the Raiders in the first quarter, Mostert saw a season-high 22 carries for 86 rushing yards.
The Jets defense is a true run funnel, ranking just 18th in DVOA against the run. They have allowed big rushing performances on the ground all season, including 116 yards to Josh Jacobs, 128 yards to Saquon Barkley and 115 yards to Isiah Pacheco. They even allowed 68 rushing yards to Denver rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin.
I’m taking the over on Mostert rushing yardage prop in a game I think Miami wins comfortably. The Dolphins are just a half-game behind Baltimore for best record in the AFC and are currently in a three-way tie at 7-3 with Jacksonville and Kansas City. I don’t see a letdown against their divisional rivals, and Mostert should lead the way on the ground against the weak spot in the Jets defense.
