Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (+110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.
- Among all running backs, Devin Singletary ranks in the 77th percentile for carries this year, making up 41.7% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to run on 40.4% of their chances: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- The Houston O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 90.0 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Jacksonville’s group of DEs has been very good this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
