Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Football is back folks! As all the teams are reporting to training camp, it’s only a matter of time before we are setting those Week 1 lineups. With that also comes a draft season, and soon enough all of us will be on the clock somewhere. With that in mind, this week’s Pope’s Pick Six is dedicated to wide receivers I am keeping a close eye on this training camp, whether they are coming off an injury or just have a new situation to navigate.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last season, in a second straight year with Tom Brady at the helm, Chris Godwin was on a tear. Through Week 15, he was WR6 in PPR scoring (242.4). This was made possible by his 128 targets, which he turned into 98 receptions, 1,103 yards and five touchdowns. It was pretty clear that Godwin was Brady’s go-to guy, as he led the Bucs with 111 first-read targets, according to FTN’s Advanced Receiving Data. Unfortunately, early on into the Buccaneers’ Week 15 matchup, Godwin tore his ACL which ended this torrid season. Even though he missed the final three games, he still led the Bucs in first-read targets (111), yards after the catch (623), yards (1,103) and red-zone targets (26).
As a result of his late-season ACL injury, many people believed he would miss significant time in the 2022 season. This seems unlikely now, as the Buccaneers released a statement last week stating Godwin was cleared to start camp off the PUP list. With this, new questions arise on whether he is fully healthy or not. For me, I am monitoring this closely, because if Godwin makes it through the preseason and training camp with no setbacks, it’s likely he starts Week 1. If this is the case, he is going to be one of Brady’s favorite targets once again – leading to high-end fantasy production.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
It has been two full years since Michael Thomas finished his historic WR1 finish. Since then, he has only played in a handful of games and missed the entire 2021 campaign. In 2020, he did play in seven games and saw 55 targets, which he turned into 45 receptions for 438 yards. In these games, he saw 36 first-read targets, won all four of his contested targets and only dropped one ball, according to FTN’s Advanced Receiving Data. This ultimately showed us he can still be a dominant force when healthy. Although we have seen what Michael Thomas can do when on the field, it’s hard to know exactly what condition he is in currently at 29 years old.
This August, he is reportedly fully healthy for the first time in a long time, and with this, I am interested to see what he looks like on the field. A lot has changed with the Saints since the last time Thomas stepped foot on the football field. Jameis Winston is now the quarterback, they also have a new coaching staff and a few new wide receivers in Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. Due to his immense upside, I will be watching to see if Thomas has regained his form and how he meshes into this new offense. If this all goes well, Thomas will likely become a premier fantasy asset once again this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
At the ripe old age of 25, JuJu Smith-Schuster has already accomplished so much as a fantasy asset, finishing as a top-24 wide receiver three times. His best finish came in 2018 when he finished as WR7 in PPR scoring (296.9 points). This past season, he only played in five games before a shoulder injury derailed his campaign. This offseason, he left Pittsburgh and headed to Kansas City, which was no surprise, considering the Chiefs reportedly tried to land him last year. In his new home, he is set to be the lead target on one of the most potent offenses in the league, which has finished top 3 in passing yards per game the past two seasons. Within this, they have produced a top-12 fantasy wide receiver and tight end each season.
With a lead role up for grabs, I am monitoring Smith-Schuster, as he is the favorite to land this role. However, he is not the only one fighting for a shot. The Chiefs have rookie Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman and new addition Marquez Valdes-Scantling also vying for the same role. So I will be watching to see if Smith-Schuster can regain his old form and carve out a significant role in this passing offense. If he does, he’ll likely become the second target behind Travis Kelce, which makes it easy to see how he could finish as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver this year. This would make him one of the best values in fantasy drafts, as he currently carries an ADP of WR33.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Garrett Wilson was one of the best wide receivers in college football throughout his career, producing 2,213 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns on 143 receptions. He wreaked havoc on the Big Ten with his aggressive route-running and physicality – winning 52.0% of his contested targets over his career. Additionally, he was even better after the catch, producing 739 yards with 29 missed tackles. This helped him become a top-10 pick this spring, landing with the New York Jets. This has led to a significant number of people doubting his ability to make an immediate impact, largely due to a crowded depth chart that already contains Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims.
This is why I am keeping a close eye on Wilson this preseason and at camp. He has produced in crowded rooms before at Ohio State, and this is likely one of those false Twitter narratives. He is arguably the most complete and talented wide receiver in the room, and normally this type of player rises to the top quickly. This is what I am looking for, especially with a majority of the players having little chemistry with Zach Wilson due to an injury-plagued season last year. As a result, there is an opening to carve out a significant role on a rising offense. If this happens, it’s likely he outproduces his WR51 ADP dramatically, and he even has a chance to finish as the top Jets fantasy wide receiver.
DJ Chark, Detroit Lions
It feels like ages ago that we were talking about DJ Chark‘s breakout season when he posted 1,000 yards and scored a career-high eight touchdowns en route to a WR17 PPR finish in 2019. Since then, he has totaled only 860 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, he produced 154 yards and two touchdowns on only seven receptions before suffering an ankle injury that ended his season. His 22 yards per reception, however, solidified that he is one of the best depth threats in the game. Off this injury, he landed a one-year, $10 million prove-it deal in Detroit, which is an upgrade this season, as last season the Jaguars only scored 14.9 points per game, compared to the Lions’ 19.1.
The main concern for Chark this season, aside from the injury recovery, is that he is joining an offense full of playmakers like D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Jameson Williams. This is where my biggest concern lies. What is his role: a field stretcher or primary target? Pay attention to this in the preseason and at camp, because his big-play ability is something the Lions offense has lacked. Additionally, if the Lions take another step forward this year, and Chark becomes a focal point of their passing game, he could return to fantasy relevance and carry WR2 upside.
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
Yet again, we are coming off a season in which Parris Campbell was injured. In his three-year career, he has not played in more than seven games in a single season and has only played in 15 total games. However, in these games he has flashed immense talent, totaling 360 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Last season, 17 of his 20 targets were first-read targets, which helped display his ability to create quick separation. This ability was only magnified by the fact that he also was credited with only one drop on his 20 targets and averaged a QBR of 94.2 when targeted. All of this shows us that he has all the talent to become a productive fantasy asset in this league.
This offseason, the Colts upgraded from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, who is a much more accurate quarterback. Ryan’s ability to put the ball in the correct spots will only amplify Campbell’s abilities while allowing him to improve his 2.0 yards after the catch per reception numbers from last year. Although the Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor heavily, they did throw the ball 500 times last year, and this number could increase with the improvement at the quarterback position and the evolving AFC. This is why Campbell is on my must-watch list. If he can build solid chemistry with Ryan, it’s likely he’ll carve out a solid role behind Michael Pittman Jr. As a result, he will see plenty of opportunities to be a weekly producer if he can stay healthy all season.
