Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week, I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Wide receivers to target before the season in dynasty leagues.
When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, wide receiver depth is a big deal. Having a few potential breakouts can be a huge advantage. Below, I’m looking at a few receiver options who may be available on the waiver wire and/or have a lower trade value who could emerge as key players at some point this year or beyond.
KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos
KJ Hamler has flashed enticing talent in his two seasons in the league led by his game-breaking speed. He has also missed 17 games (including most of last season to an ACL tear). As a rookie in 2020, he tallied 381 yards and 3 receptions on 30 receptions, including 127 yards after the catch. That earned him what was meant to be a more significant role in 2021, but he tore his ACL (and injured his hip) in Week 3, costing him the rest of the season.
This season, the Broncos added Russell Wilson in hopes to improve their passing attack, and they have already lost Tim Patrick to a torn ACL of his own. That creates an opening for Hamler to seize the WR3 slot in Denver, and his speed and route-running could thrive in that role. That’s enough for some occasional flex value on its own, but if anything were to happen to Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy, Hamler could jump into borderline weekly starter territory.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Khalil Shakir may only be a rookie, but already this offseason he has seemed to carve out a role in the Bills’ offense. After the draft, Shakir appeared buried in a deep depth chart that contained Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie. Although he is not going to out-target either Diggs or Davis, there are plenty of targets to go around on a team that passed the ball 59% of the time in 2021. It seems Shakir has already passed Crowder already for the fourth role in this room and has a legitimate shot for the top slot role as he battles McKenzie.
Shakir’s body control and ball-tracking ability have shined throughout camp and the preseason. Additionally, he has displayed an ability to create some after the catch even though he is not known for his speed, amplified by his strong route-running ability. As a result, there is a good shot that at some point this season Shakir carves out a significant role in this offense. Worst case, it may take a year to emerge, but by next year there’s a good shot he’ll be a player everyone will want on their roster.
Danny Gray, San Francisco 49ers
After two productive seasons at SMU, Danny Gray was drafted by the 49ers in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In his college career, he produced 1,251 yards and 13 touchdowns on only 82 receptions, adding two more scored on the ground. Additionally, he forced 16 missed tackles en route to creating 738 yards after the catch (via PFF). This creativity earned him some usage in the run game at times seeing six attempts and averaging over 11 yards an attempt. With this versatility, it is no surprise he caught the eye of Kyle Shanahan and the coaching staff.
It’s unlikely Gray carves out a significant role in a limited passing game this season, but if Trey Lance develops into a good passer, the offense could look drastically different. The 49ers have leaned on the run game for years now, which is attributable to the limitation of their quarterbacks. With a clear opening at the third wide receiver slot, Gray can easily carve out a significant role in the future. If so, he will become a significant fantasy contributor, especially if the passing attack improves.
Kyle Philips, Tennessee Titans
Kyle Philips is already making waves in camp as a technician when it comes to route running and his ability to learn the game. This success is no surprise — on a limited passing attack at UCLA he produced 1,821 yards and 17 touchdowns. As a senior last year, he forced 8 missed tackles en route to 355 yards after the catch. All of this contributed to his impressive 2.11 yards per route run, according to PFF.
As the second wide receiver drafted this season by the Titans he became the forgotten man this offseason. That makes sense, as he is currently buried in a room that contains Robert Woods and potentially electric rookie Treylon Burks. It is likely Philips could carve out a role as the third wide receiver in this offense, though on a run-first team that might not be that productive a role — the Titans passed at the third-lowest rate in the league last year even without the services of Derrick Henry for nine games. On the flip side, Robert Woods is 30 years old and could be replaced next season if Philips counties to impress, making him a nice sleeper stash this year.
James Proche, Baltimore Ravens
After four extremely productive seasons at SMU, James Proche was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft in 2019. At SMU as a junior and senior, he posted back-to-back seasons of 1,100-plus receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns. A majority of this damage was done out of the slot — he lined up in the slot 58.4% of the time in 2018-2019. That helped him to an impressive 2.59 yards per route run, per PFF. In the NFL, he landed in a limited passing attack, limiting him to 23 targets in limited use in his first two seasons. He’s caught 17 of his 23 targets in two years for an impressive 12.7 yards per reception.
Moving forward, the Ravens have a very shallow wide receiver depth chart. That gives Proche the opportunity to potentially carve out a significant role behind lead wide receiver Rashod Bateman. That wouldn’t make him a top asset — not in this offense and with Mark Andrews still around — but he could carve out flex value. Currently, he is likely very acquirable and possibly even on your dynasty waiver wire, making him a perfect risk-reward type asset.
Cam Sims, Washington Commanders
Cam Sims is an extremely deep name, even in dynasty formats. That said, he has flashed whenever given the opportunity. Over his career, Sims has produced 715 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 49 receptions. Currently, this four-year pro finds himself buried in the Commander wide receiver room. On the flip side, he possesses something the players ahead of him do not – size. Sims stands 6-foot-5, five inches taller than the next-closest Commanders receiver. Although this size does not guarantee him a large role in the offense, it could give him an advantage in the red zone.
It’s not likely Sims carves out a significant role for the Commanders. But if he can even grab the red zone targets, that could lead to touchdowns. Or there’s the chance he doesn’t make this roster behind Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, and then he could end up in a better situation elsewhere. Although the percentages lean against Sims, at his cost of free on the waiver wire he is an interesting stash if you play in deeper leagues.
