Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week, I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Running backs to target now in dynasty leagues.
When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, it is always important to have plenty of depth, especially at the running back position. Even if they aren’t the most popular names, having a few potential players who could break out is a huge advantage.
Here are a few players who may be available on the waiver wire and/or have lower trade value who could emerge this year or beyond.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
As a rookie, Kenneth Gainwell produced 291 yards and 5 touchdowns on 68 attempts. He also added 33 receptions, 253 yards and a lone touchdown on 50 targets. According to FTN’s Advanced Rushing Stats, we can see that Gainwell also created 2.67 yards after contact per attempt, which was second most among the Eagles running backs. Additionally, he forced 20 missed tackles en route to a 50.6 Elusive Rate via FTN fantasy. He is the hardest player to acquire on this list, but perhaps the most important.
As we head into 2022, the Eagles are without the services of Jordan Howard, who out-touched Gainwell in the run game last season. It’s likely a portion of these touches go to Gainwell now, especially in the red zone, where Gainwell saw 12 attempts and scored five times last season. This was much better than Miles Sanders, who failed to find the end zone at all on 33 touches. With an increased passing offense, it’s likely Gainwell sees a boost in the passing game as well. Gainwell is in store for a huge year, but this current value would not suggest that. It’s wise to buy into Gainwell now before he is untouchable on the trade market.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Regarding handcuff running backs, Khalil Herbert is among the best of them, which he proved last year as a rookie. For most of the season, Herbert saw limited usage playing behind lead back David Montgomery, but he saw the lion’s share of work in a three-week span with Montgomery sidelined. During this span, he was the RB12 in PPR scoring while averaging 15.4 PPR points per week. His 269 yards on the ground was the most by a Bears running back in any three-game span all year. On the flip side, this was 62% of his season total, as he finished with only 433 yards.
This season, the Bears have voiced they want to use a multi-back attack. That means Herbert is in line to see an increased role, especially when you look at his advanced stats from last year where he averaged .19 missed tackles and 2.67 yards after contact per attempt. This gave him a 59.4 elusive rating from FTN, helping him build a strong case to see an increased role in 2022. His value will never be lower than it is now.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
As one of the more polarizing rookie running backs this year, Zamir White has great dynasty value. White steps into a crowded depth chart this year, but all the players ahead of him have an average age of 27.4. Josh Jacobs is the only player under 27, and he had his fifth-year option declined. This year, White has a chance to carve out a significant role that could extend to next season and beyond. As a former five-star recruit, White is extremely talented, which was on full display in his three years at Georgia, en route to 2,083 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns. He also forced 65 missed tackles and averaged 3.31 yards after contact per attempt, en route to over 1,050 yards after contact.
Unfortunately, he is entering the league with two prior ACL tears, one on each knee – this significantly affects the long-term durability outlook. On the flip side, his extreme athleticism ( 4.40 40-yard dash and 128’ broad jump both in the 96th percentile via player profiler) helps counteract his long-term injury outlook. Additionally, this athleticism creates a huge upside when it comes to his fantasy outlook. This makes him a player to acquire before the season starts before his value skyrockets!
Chris Evans, Cincinnati Bengals
After a rookie season where he was used minimally, it may seem unusual to see Chris Evans on this list. Last season, he only saw 32 touches but was productive with them, creating 228 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. His 137.5 elusive rating was also the highest on the Bengals among players with five or more touches, via FTN fantasy. During this training camp, there have been reports that he is making a push for the secondary role over Samaje Perine. If so, his value instantly increases, as last season Perine saw 82 touches behind Mixon. Ultimately, he would be an injury away from a significant role in one of the most potent offenses in the league.
Evans has proven to be a great receiving option, as he created 10.1 yards per reception and scored his only two touchdowns in the receiving game. Additionally, nine of his 17 targets were first-read targets, and he led all Bengals running backs with a 142.9 passer rating when targeted. All of this only helps cement him as the best option behind Mixon this season and moving forward. He becomes a must-roster handcuff. If you can get him now while people are still doubting him, you will be ahead of the curve.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
After being selected in the third round of the 2021 draft by the 49ers, many people were optimistic that Trey Sermon was going to emerge as a top-tier fantasy asset. Sadly, this never happened, as he struggled to get onto the field last year. Early on, he was beaten out by Elijah Mitchell, and then when an opportunity arose, he suffered a concussion. As a result, he only saw 44 touches for 193 yards and no touchdowns in nine games. As we look past the surface-level stats, we can see that 95 rushing yards came after contact, which was 56% of his total yardage.
As we head into 2022 and beyond, Sermon is stuck in a crowded running back room, but Kyle Shanahan has already voiced he would like to use a committee this year. Sermon can easily carve out a significant role in this offense. He came to training camp in the best shape of his life and has turned in some great practices, according to the 49ers beat reporters. It seems like all may not be lost when it comes to Sermon. Even though the long-term outlook may be blurry, there is a path to significant success.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford was a hot name among many fantasy managers pre-NFL Draft, which was no surprise after producing over 1,000 yards last season in Cincinnati. He scored 17 rushing touchdowns and created 551 yards after contact. On top of this, he created 48 missed tackles en route to 27 runs of 10+ yards and 12 runs of 15+ yards. Even with all this production, he fell into the fifth round of the draft to Cleveland. As a result of joining this robust running back room, his fantasy outlook tanked.
Since draft day, multiple things have changed, though. Kareem Hunt asked for a trade, which could change Ford’s role significantly. Currently, he is battling with D’Ernest Johnson for the third running back on the depth chart, which will not lead to much success as a rookie. Conversely, Ford’s talent has shined through in limited opportunities this preseason, producing 57 yards and a touchdown on only 10 attempts. This talent is the main reason you should be looking to acquire him before he sees an increased role and his value rises.
