Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It was a great opening week for our NFL staff picks, with five wins, including this superb +550 cash from Sam Choudhury.
We now turn our attention to a robust 13-game Sunday slate and our favorite betting values. I already provided my three favorite moneyline underdogs as well as my favorite sides for today’s matchups.
I surveyed our entire FTN Bets staff and asked them for their one favorite side, total or prop bet for Week 2. Here’s hoping for another great week!
Here is our favorite FTN Staff Bets for Week 2!
Pick: San Francisco -7 at Los Angeles Rams
(-110, FanDuel)
FTN Selection: Aaron Schatz
It’s likely that there was some overreaction to the Rams’ Week 1 victory compared to what we knew about them going into the season. The 49ers are a much superior team.
Pick: Joshua Kelley Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, DraftKings)
FTN Selection: Marshall Gershon
Despite Austin Ekeler being ruled out, I don’t think this is a good week for Joshua Kelley. The Titans have an excellent run defense, shutting down Jamaal Williams in Week 1 after finishing as the No. 1 run defense in DVOA last year. I also don’t think Kelley gets a dominant amount of carries, with guys like Elijah Dotson and Isaiah Spiller behind him on the depth chart.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel)
FTN Selection: Chris Meaney
You couldn’t have asked for a better debut for Calvin Ridley, as he racked up 11 targets, eight grabs, 101 yards and a touchdown. I have the same concerns about Christian Kirk heading into Week 2 as I did during the preseason – he isn’t getting on the field in 2WR sets. We have a high game total, and although this is a tougher matchup, we project him for 74.6 receiving yards.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
(-114, BetMGM)
FTN Selection: Josh Gross
Aside from the fact that the Bengals played man coverage right around 45% of the time last season (which still ranked inside the top half of the league), the Ravens just lost J.K. Dobbins for the season. While they still have Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, Lamar Jackson figures to have an even greater presence in their run game. In seven games as starting quarterback in this matchup, dating back to 2018, Jackson has averaged 83.1 rushing yards per game on 12.7 attempts per game and has gone over this number in six of those seven games. 43.5 is quite low for someone who averaged at least 63 rushing yards per game over each of the last four seasons as well as 69.9 rushing yards per game as a starter throughout his career.
Pick: Jahan Dotson Over 3.5 Receptions
(-115, Bet365)
FTN Selection: Kevin Adams
Jahan Dotson gets a great Week 2 matchup against Denver cornerbacks Damarri Mathis and Essang Bassey in the slot. Dotson lined up for 58.9% of his routes inside in Week 1, and I project shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain to shadow Washington wideout Terry McLaurin on about 60% of his routes. If Dotson avoids the league’s best cover cornerback, he has a great opportunity to crest this number.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, BetMGM)
FTN Selection: Daniel Kelley
Rhamondre Stevenson got off to a slow start on the ground in Week 1, with only 25 yards on 12 carries. But the context is important – he came into the game battling a stomach bug, and the Patriots fell behind 14-0 before Pats fans even had time to tweet sad tweets about the first seven points. Now, Stevenson should be healthy, and the best way to combat this electric Dolphins offense is keeping them from even touching the ball as much as possible. The Dolphins gave up 90-plus yards to two different running backs last week. Stevenson could double this line.
Pick: Miami at New England Under 46.5 Points
(-110, DraftKings)
FTN Selection: Dane Martinez
This is a critical divisional matchup for the Patriots, who cannot fall to 0-2 at home. New England likely won’t play man defense, making Miami work for their points via long drives. This game projects to be close, and I’m backing the under between these divisional rivals.
