Week 2 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was a good Week 1 start for the moneyline underdogs column, with a one-point loss keeping us from profitability. 

The Browns dominated the Bengals, giving us a nice +120 win, which covered a rough loss with the Steelers at home. The Titans carried our longest odds at +160 and lost a valiant 16-15 battle at New Orleans. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason, they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. We enter Week 2 down just 0.8 units. 

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the week.

After a solid Week 1, let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 2 of the 2023 season!

Week 2 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Houston +1.5 vs. Indianapolis 

+106, FanDuel Sportsbook

Houston stayed competitive in the game against Baltimore, despite opening with a rookie quarterback on the road. Now, it’s Anthony Richardson’s turn to enjoy his first road start as a rookie quarterback. 

Per VSIN’s Steve Makinen, rookie QBs on the road have been a shaky bet, especially recently. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 100-105 ATS (48.8%) in home games but just 90-112 ATS (44.5%) in road/neutral games. Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a shocking 22-230 SU and 49-199-4 ATS (19.8%). With a game total of 40 points against a defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans, the Colts project for a total right around that 17-point mark. 

It’s hard to think of better preparation against the mobile Richardson than facing the NFL’s elite dual-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Despite the reports of offensive coordinator Todd Monken bringing a fast-paced and explosive style to Baltimore, Houston limited Jackson to just 169 passing yards and 38 yards on the ground. The Texans sacked Jackson four times and forced a fumble and interception. This is bad news for Richardson who, besides this 39-yard screen pass touchdown to Michael Pittman, averaged a “robust” 5.1 yards per attempt. 

The Texans Week 1 DVOA ranking wasn’t great, finishing as 22nd overall, but the Colts’ offense finished 26th including 32nd in rushing offense DVOA. With two new head coaches, there isn’t much historical data upon which to draw a conclusion, but I like the Texans to win this game outright. The Texans defense will disrupt Richardson in his first road start, and Houston’s rushing game behind Dameon Pierce should be enough to offset the inexperience of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.06 Units

Jacksonville +3 vs. Kansas City 

+144, FanDuel Sportsbook

The Chiefs can’t lose two in a row to start the season, can they? 

I am concerned about how this Chiefs offense looked in the home opener against the Lions. Kansas City only posted 21 points despite Detroit failing to sack Mahomes even once. The Jaguars pass rush struggled last season but did average 2.5 sacks per game at home. In Week 1, they registered four sacks against mobile Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

While the overwhelming majority of public bettors will assume a Chiefs bounceback, a dive into the historical ATS numbers reveals uncertainty. As a 3-point or higher road favorite with Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are just 14-14 (48.3%) ATS per BetLabs. That includes a skewed Week 18 road win against a Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders team last year. Prior to that game, Kansas City had failed to cover six of the prior seven times as a road favorite in that scenario. The return of pass rusher Chris Jones should bolster the Chiefs defense and could push this line to 3.5 points. In that scenario, the Chiefs cover rate ATS drops to just 11-5 (42.3%). 

There is also a feeling that tight end Travis Kelce will definitely play against the Jaguars, but is that accurate? 

Even if Kelce plays, I am skeptical of his effectiveness against a Jaguars defense that ranked third-overall in DVOA after Week 1. 

Jacksonville is very familiar with the Chiefs, playing them twice last season Both games were at Kansas City, including a very close 27-20 loss in last year’s playoffs. In that game, the Jaguars trailed by just three points (20-17) in the fourth quarter. 

I love the Jaguars in their home opener as a massive public underdog to the Chiefs. Can Kansas City lose two in a row to start the season? 

Yes, I think they will. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.20 Units

Baltimore +3 at Cincinnati 

+160, Bet365

I’m worried about the Bengals. 

There were several concerning signs from Cincinnati’s Week 1 loss at Cleveland, many of which are being dismissed because of the rainy weather. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow did not look fully recovered from this calf injury suffered in the preseason, producing a horrific 2.6 yards per attempt on 31 opportunities. Wide receiver Tee Higgins was invisible, registered zero catches on eight targets. 

The Bengals running game wasn’t much better, finishing 26th in DVOA. Joe Mixon tallied just 56 rushing yards on 13 attempts. If you remove his 22-yard run, he averaged just 2.83 YPC. Is a return home going to magically jumpstart this offense? 

Cincinnati will be facing a Todd Monken-designed offense for the first time, eliminating the familiarity advantage. Even though Baltimore lost running back J.K. Dobbins for the season (Achilles), the Ravens have a full cadre of replacements in Justice Hill and Gus Edwards, and the now promoted Melvin Gordon. Their passing offense should also see a boost with the potential return of tight end Mark Andrews, along with the fantastic debut of rookie wideout Zay Flowers. 

Because of the multiple injuries Lamar Jackson has battled, it’s easy to overlook his success as a road underdog. Per BetLabs, the Ravens are an incredible 7-1 as a road underdog with Jackson as quarterback. That includes three outright wins in Baltimore’s last four matchups in that context. 

I’m fading the public again in a “no way they’ll lose the first two games” scenario with the Bengals. Cincinnati started 0-2 last season, and I think they do the same again in 2023. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.60 Units