NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Colts -1, O/U 41.5
Colts
The Colts have quietly emerged as a legit playoff contender, winning three games in a row, and currently holding the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Gardner Minshew has played well in relief of Anthony Richardson, but the offense has leaned heavily on the run with arguably the best duo of running backs in the NFL. After missing the first four weeks due to an ankle injury, and playing on a pitch count early on, Jonathan Taylor had started to separate as the clear lead back over the last four games, averaging 90-plus yards from scrimmage (90.4). He handled 15 carries for 91 yards and two touchdowns in his last outing, but saw his snap share decline to 57%. Postgame, the team announced that Taylor had suffered a thumb injury that will require surgery, likely sidelining the All-Pro back for at least two weeks.
Head coach Shane Steichen stated that there is no timeline for Taylor’s return, but a second stint on the injured reserve list is not in consideration. Until Taylor is back, Zack Moss should dominate all the work in the backfield, posting an 85% snap share and 79% share without his running mate. In three games without Taylor, Moss averaged 24 touches, 107 scrimmage yards and 16.6 PPR points per game.
The last time Moss faced the Titans, he had a career game, rushing for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Taylor was active in the game but played just 10 snaps in his first game back.
Titans
Will Levis secured his second career win in Week 12, defeating fellow rookie Bryce Young on the other side. Levis wasn’t asked to do much, playing from ahead, failing to surpass 200 passing yards for a third consecutive game. Derrick Henry on the other hand put together one of his better games of the season, handling 18 carries for 76 rushing yards and a pair of scores. Henry isn’t the same player he once was, but should have another productive day on the ground, facing a Colts defense ranked bottom 10 in DVOA against the rush, allowing the eighth most rushing yards (100.2) and second-most fantasy points (24.6 PPR) to opposing running backs. If the Titans can’t get the run game going, the offense could be in line for a long day, without a reliable pass catcher outside of DeAndre Hopkins. However, they should get Treylon Burks this week, after he missed the last two games due to a concussion but returned to practice Wednesday.
Game Prop
Tyjae Spears Under 40.5 Rushing & Receiving yards
(-115, Bet365)
Tyjae Spears has seen his role diminish over the last two weeks, with no more than six touches in back-to-back games, averaging 16.5 yards from scrimmage. In Week 12, Spears posted season-low marks in carries (2) and scrimmage yards (7), taking a clear back seat to the big dog and getting out-touched by Derrick Henry 19-3. Henry’s production has been volatile this season, but his usage has been significantly better at home and/or in positive to competitive gamescripts. The opposite has been true for Spears who is averaging less than seven touches at home (6.4), held below 40 rushing and receiving yards in his last two games in Tennessee where the Titans came out victorious. The one-point spread against the Colts calls for a close game which should mean more work for Henry who has historically played his best ball late in the season.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers -5.5, O/U 41.5
Cardinals
The Cardinals were embarrassed in Week 12, defeated 37-14 by the Rams. The offense struggled to put up points but found success through the air behind Kyler Murray who posted season-high marks in dropbacks (45) and passing yards (456). The gamescript helped Marquise Brown finally put together a useable day for fantasy, leading the team in targets (12) and receiving yards (88). Brown has been one of the better values relative to his preseason average draft position but has not been the same player with Murray under center, averaging less than 45 receiving yards per game on a 17% target share.
Brown’s production should improve down the stretch, but his status should be monitored, logging back-to-back DNPs with a heel injury.
Trey McBride was also held out of the first two days of practice, popping up on the injury report with a groin injury.
Steelers
The Steelers’ offense finally looked competent in their first game without Matt Canada, surpassing 400 yards for the first time since Week 2 of the 2020 season. Kenny Pickett thrived with a new play-caller, throwing for more than 235 yards for the first time all season (278). The new scheme also helped Najee Harris, who led the backfield in snaps, posting a season-high in rushing yards (99). Despite getting out-snapped by Harris, Jaylen Warren still led the backfield in touches (16), logging 62 yards from scrimmage. It’s hard to predict what the split will look like going forward, however, both running backs can be trusted this upcoming week, facing a Cardinals defense ranked 30th in DVOA against the rush, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (28.8 PPR).
Game Prop
Pat Freiermuth 3+ Receptions, Jaylen Warren 2+ Receptions
(-130, Bet365)
The change at offensive coordinator had a significant impact on Pat Freiermuth’s usage. Freiermuth put together his best game of the season, leading the Steelers in targets (11), receptions (9) and receiving yards (120), eclipsing the century mark for the first time in his career. It’s unlikely he sees double-digit targets for a second consecutive game, however coming down with three grabs seems like a near lock for Freiermuth, who has cleared that mark in three of his last four games. He caught just one ball in his first game back but was limited in his return, running a route on less than 40% of Kenny Pickett’s dropbacks. As for Jaylen Warren, despite playing second fiddle to Najee Harris in terms of snaps, he was still the preferred option in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for 13 yards. On the season, Warren has a 14% target share, compared to 8% for Harris, catching at least two passes in 10 out of 12 games.
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The Eagles enter Week 13 as 3-point underdogs, becoming the first team to win ten of their first 11 games and not be a favorite at home. As great as Philly has been, their defense has been a problem this season, especially in the secondary, ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass. The matchup sets up well for the 49ers who are No. 1 in DVOA on offense and first in passing. Jalen Hurts has also been no stranger to playing in shootouts, but his production through the air has been concerning, held below 210 passing yards in three consecutive games. Will the 49ers finally get their redemption and defeat the Eagles on their home turf? Which team is healthier, and better suited to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl? Find out for yourself using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!
