NFL Splits Tool, Week 13: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Colts -1, O/U 41.5

Colts

The Colts have quietly emerged as a legit playoff contender, winning three games in a row, and currently holding the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Gardner Minshew has played well in relief of Anthony Richardson, but the offense has leaned heavily on the run with arguably the best duo of running backs in the NFL. After missing the first four weeks due to an ankle injury, and playing on a pitch count early on, Jonathan Taylor had started to separate as the clear lead back over the last four games, averaging 90-plus yards from scrimmage (90.4). He handled 15 carries for 91 yards and two touchdowns in his last outing, but saw his snap share decline to 57%. Postgame, the team announced that Taylor had suffered a thumb injury that will require surgery, likely sidelining the All-Pro back for at least two weeks.

Head coach Shane Steichen stated that there is no timeline for Taylor’s return, but a second stint on the injured reserve list is not in consideration. Until Taylor is back, Zack Moss should dominate all the work in the backfield, posting an 85% snap share and 79% share without his running mate. In three games without Taylor, Moss averaged 24 touches, 107 scrimmage yards and 16.6 PPR points per game.