Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers game for Week 13.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers
8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC (announcers: Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth)
KC -6.5, O/U 42.0
Pace: KC: 27.3 sec/snap (16th), GB: 27.3 sec/snap (16th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Green Bay is allowing 2.38 yards after contact per rush this year, the sixth most in football.
- Jayden Reed leads Green Bay in target share against the blitz (19.6%).
- He has a 22% target share against man coverage this season.
- Kansas City is blitzing 34.4% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in football.
- Rashee Rice ran a route on a career-high 68% of dropbacks last week.
Quarterback
After a slow start last week, Patrick Mahomes picked things up in Las Vegas, ultimately finishing the game with 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was Mahomes’ first game as a QB1 in fantasy since Week 8, as he hasn’t quite demonstrated the same weekly upside this season, ranking 13th among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.48). The last time we saw this Green Bay defense, they were pressuring Jared Goff on over 50% of his dropbacks. And over the course of the season, the Packers are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Of course, Mahomes is still a must-start fantasy quarterback.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 15 times for 55 yards and two touchdowns Sunday. Since Week 4, Pacheco is averaging 18.3 touches and 15 PPR points per game. And with Jerick McKinnon sidelined last week, Pacheco actually played 79% of the snaps, a season-high, while his 22% snap rate on long down and distances was also a season-high. This is a good spot for Pacheco, facing Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense. The Packers are coughing up 2.38 yards after contact per rush, sixth most. They are also allowing 105 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, good for the seventh most in the league.
Wide Receiver
Finally, Kansas City expanded Rashee Rice’s role last week. The rookie ran a route on a career-high 68% of dropbacks Sunday, catching 8-of-10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. This is the kind of upside Rice can give us when he’s running more routes, as he’s seen a target on 25% of his routes over the course of the season. Kansas City dialed up plenty of designed touches for Rice, as three of his 10 targets came off screens Sunday. It is worth pointing out that Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman were out last week, but I really don’t see how Kansas City can get away from playing Rice more and more going forward. He’s a high-end WR3 with top-24 upside each week.
Tight End
Travis Kelce caught 6-of-7 targets for 91 yards Sunday. Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy, leading the position in both targets (27%) and yards (2.26) per route run over the course of the season. You should probably keep him in your starting lineup.
Quarterback
Jordan Love is playing some damn good football right now. He was almost perfect on Thanksgiving against the Lions, completing 22-of-32 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 39 rushing yards. Love now has three consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes, and over the last four weeks, ranks fourth in passing yards (1,106), third in touchdown passes (8), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0) and seventh in fantasy points per dropback (0.53). This is going to be a huge test for Love, as Kansas City has been an elite pass defense. We know Steve Spagnuolo is going to send pressure and play plenty of man coverage. Against man coverage this season, Love is completing just 53.5% of his passes. And when blitzed, Love is completing 59.6% of his passes with 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Love is on the QB1/QB2 borderline for this weekend.
Running Back
It seems unlikely that Aaron Jones plays this week, which means we’ll once again see AJ Dillon operate as the lead running back in Green Bay. Last week, Dillon played 52% of the snaps, while handling 67% of the rush attempts and recording 17 touches. Dillon has started four games this season and the results are pretty disappointing, averaging 16 touches, under 65 total yards and 8.8 PPR points per contest. He only has a 4.6% explosive run rate on the season so don’t expect Dillon to rush for 100 yards or anything. However, the volume should be solid if Jones is out and you can run on Kansas City, as the Chiefs are coughing up 4.6 yards per carry on the year. He’s a high-end flex/low-end RB2 with six teams on bye.
Wide Receiver
Christian Watson has now scored in consecutive games, though his ceiling for targets has been 6-7. While the talent is there, I do have concerns about Watson in this matchup. Kansas City has absolutely erased opposing No. 1 wide receivers, surrendering 48.8 yards per game to lead wideouts, the fewest in all of football. Against man coverage this season, Watson has a target share of 18.6%, while averaging 1.39 fantasy points per target. And when blitzed this season, Watson is third among Green Bay’s wideouts in target share (13.1%). Kansas City, meanwhile, is blitzing 34.4% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league. I’m very worried about Watson in this spot.
Jayden Reed will be my favorite wideout from this team as long as he is active. Reed has been missing practice with a chest injury so hopefully he can return on Friday. The rookie leads the Packers with a 19.6% target share against the blitz this season, while also sporting a 22% target share against man coverage. Reed continues to see a lot of the schemed targets in this offense, moving in motion pre-snap nearly 15% of the time. The slot is the area to attack this Kansas City pass defense, as the Chiefs are allowing the seventh-most receptions (5.2), fourth-most targets (7.8) and ninth-most fantasy points (12.8) per game to opposing pass-catchers from the slot, which is where Reed has lined up 78% of the time on the year.
Tight End
No thank you.
