Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The same game parlay for this week’s Thursday game is very logical. It will be avoiding the Los Angeles Rams completely and focusing on a rejuvenated football team in the Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 14 Thursday Slate
The odds on this parlay were better on DraftKings than either of those two books, which is why we are using that to place this bet. Here is what I am calling the “Keep it Simple Parlay of the Day” and riding with all Raiders props.
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Raiders -5.5
Raiders Team Total Over 30.5
This same game parlay is all Las Vegas Raiders and backing their offense to have a massive day and the superstars to show up. The Raiders are red hot right now, and Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs are a massive reason for that. I have zero faith in any bet involving the Los Angeles Rams due to their dysfunction and injuries. They have gone as low as claiming Baker Mayfield to be their QB, and who knows (or cares, to be honest) if he will actually play with it being a short week. The Rams also featured a committee approach at running back, so it is very difficult to even pinpoint who will get the bulk of usage at running back.
The first leg of this parlay will be Josh Jacobs scoring a touchdown. Jacobs is having a career year so far, with over 1,300 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. The Rams defense would be considered the strong part of the team, but even then it isn’t very good. They have given up 27 points each to the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints, two of the worst offenses in the league. This should bode well for Jacobs, who will continue to find the end zone Thursday night.
The second leg will be Davante Adams also scoring. Again, this isn’t rocket science, the Raiders are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and Adams and Jacobs are the best players on the team. Adams is putting up monster games especially as of late with seven touchdowns in the last five games and 12 total on the year. Adams is one the best receivers in the league and the Rams have struggled to cover the pass, especially Jalen Ramsey, who will see a lot of Adams Thursday night.
The last two legs go hand-in-hand. My expectation for this game is a Raiders blowout with a lot of points early and often. Derek Carr has this team going in the right direction, especially offensively. In the past two weeks specifically, the Raiders have put up 40 and 27 points against contending teams in the Chargers and Seahawks. I expect the Raiders to easily put up 31 points against a Rams team that has all but packed it in the season this year.
Overall, my idea on this same game parlay is to keep it simple. The Raiders are the much better team and one of the hottest teams in the league especially offensively. For 100 to win 475 we will certainly take the Raiders, the Raiders offense scoring a ton, and the two best offensive players scoring touchdowns.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
