NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Finally, you can turn your sports knowledge into real cash by investing in an athlete’s entire career. Prices rise and fall with every hit, huddle, and headline — and you can buy and sell instantly or hold for as long as you want. Three times a week, FTN will feature a player and his Mojo value — is it time to buy, sell, hold or short? Click here to get in on the Mojo action.
This century, there have been 19 running backs who have rushed for at least 5.0 yards per carry on 140-plus carries as a rookie. It’s not a guarantee of future success – illustrious names like Ben Tate, Selvin Young and Ryan Grant count among the number – but it’s a pretty solid indicator. Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley all qualify.
Also on that list? Tyler Allgeier.
Allgeier started slow. Through Week 8, he had 84 carries for 324 yards, 3.9 yards per attempt, and only 8.1 PPR points per game, RB49. Things turned in that Week 9 game against the sieve that is the Chargers defense, with Allgeier putting up 99 rushing yards on 10 carries. He’s put up at least 4.9 YPA in five of six games starting with that stretch, garnering 419 yards on 64 carries in that time for 6.6 yards per carry. That peaked in Week 15, when Allgeier ran for 139 yards and a score on 17 carries, the fantasy RB8 for the week.
Mojo Spotlight: Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier, a rookie, was a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft. Despite that relatively low draft stock, this pop didn’t come out of nowhere. I wrote him up as one of the rookies I loved in the offseason. Our Adam Pfeifer, Jeremy Popielarz, Daniel Kelley and Dan Fornek all touted Allgeier as well leading up to his debut. Obviously, a big part of the rationale was a relatively light depth chart in Atlanta, with Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams the only things standing in Allgeier’s way. But even absent the clear path to work, we liked Allgeier’s size and ability to shoulder a heavy workload during his time at BYU.
Going Forward
Every bit of that remains true now (Williams is now gone from Atlanta altogether). And the Falcons could get out of the contract for Patterson, who turns 32 in March, this offseason. Allgeier isn’t ever likely to be a bell cow-type back – he doesn’t forecast to have that sort of receiving chops – but he’s at least set up well to be an early-down grinder with the upside for more on an Atlanta roster that will have more important holes to fill in 2023 than upgrading the backfield. Allgeier’s stock price on Mojo has risen recently, sitting at a peak of $5.59, but for a starting NFL running back capable of 5-plus yards per carry, that’s not much at all.
Summary
Rookies don’t always pop right away. Normally that advice applies to wide receivers, but it’s true for every position, as they grow accustomed to their new surroundings. We were collectively excited about the upside for Allgeier entering the season, but that excitement quieted down after he scuffled early. Now, the scuffles appear to be behind him, and Allgeier is getting plenty of carries and accumulating plenty of yards, with a very good chance at more of both heading into 2023. Invest now and hold for the long term.
