Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It is time. The 2024 NFL Draft is less than one month away, and we continue to analyze team needs and potential landing spots for players. Gathering information and trying to predict the first round is one of my favorite exercises of the sports year. This season brings even more uncertainty, as there are as many as six quarterbacks that could be drafted in the first round, including at the first overall pick.
April 25, all of the rumors and predictions will become crystal clear as each NFL team will declare their intentions through actions, not words. After analyzing information from beat reporters, coach interviews, and reviewing a myriad of mock drafts, here is my second projection of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. As usual, I will not include trades as part of this mock draft.
2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 — First Round
1. Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Previous mock pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Easy. It is a fait accompli that Williams joins the Bears as their franchise quarterback.
2. Washington Commanders — J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Previous: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Full disclosure, I have been monetarily invested in this pick since February, but I have always believed there is a reasonable chance McCarthy rises up draft boards.
McCarthy’s odds plummeted this week (now +275 on DraftKings) on a report that Washington is considering the former Michigan signal-caller at No. 2 overall. I think Drake Maye drops and J.J. McCarthy rises. The chance of this happening increases each day.
3. New England Patriots — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Previous: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
It’s a changing of the guard in New England, as the Patriots anchor their future to the dual-threat Heisman trophy winner. They cannot afford to pass on a quarterback in a draft this deep at the position.
4. Arizona Cardinals — Marvin Harrison, WR, Ohio State
Previous: Marvin Harrison, WR, Ohio State
Logical landing spot for the best non-quarterback available in this draft. Superb route-runner, blocker, and contested-catch receiver. They could definitely trade this pick for a team desperate to draft Drake Maye, but since we don’t project trades, Harrison goes No. 4.
5. Los Angeles Chargers — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Previous: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Jim Harbaugh prioritizes protecting his quarterback while featuring a strong running game. Alt is 6-foot-8 and 315 pounds, and could easily move to right tackle serving as a bookend to left tackle Rashawn Slater. The odds on Alt plummeted from +750 to +250 after this video was posted. I do not believe Jim Harbaugh spends the fifth overall pick, his first pick with the team, on a wide receiver.
6. New York Giants — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Previous: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers’ size and explosiveness separate him from other options at No. 6 overall. His performance at LSU’s pro day has momentum building that he could replace Harrison as the WR1 in this draft. There are rumors of the Giants wanting a quarterback, but they would need to move up to grab one of the top four QBs, making Nabers the logical choice is they stay at No. 6.
7. Tennessee Titans — Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Previous: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Everything points to Tennessee selecting an offensive lineman here. The Titans have a young franchise quarterback in Will Levis and will feature a new rushing attack with Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. They need an offensive tackle and Fashanu is the second-best tackle in the draft behind Joe Alt.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Previous: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
New head coach Raheem Morris stays true to his defensive coordinator pedigree with Atlanta’s first overall pick. Verse’s draft stock has skyrocketed over the past two seasons after he transferred from Albany to Florida State. Strength and speed make Verse the first pass rusher off the board.
9. Chicago Bears — Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Previous: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Chicago needs another pass rusher to put across the field from Montez Sweat, and they grab the athletic Alabama product.
10. New York Jets — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Previous: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Jets have tethered their immediate success to a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, making offensive line and wide receiver a clear priority at No. 10 overall. I previously mocked an offensive tackle to the Jets but they now land Odunze when he surprisingly falls to No. 10.
11. Minnesota Vikings — Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Previous: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Maye was a five-star recruit out of high school with the ability to throw a 100 mph fastball. His rocket arm and prototypical size (6-foot-4) are too tempting to pass up for a team with Sam Darnold as their projected starting quarterback. This is much later than most mocks have Maye, but this is the most likely destination (Vikings could trade up) if he falls.
12. Denver Broncos — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Previous: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I don’t see Sean Payton using his first-round pick on a quarterback if the top four options are off the board. Denver could possibly grab Bo Nix in Round 2. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos pair the explosive Mitchell with Patrick Surtain.
13. Las Vegas Raiders — Michael Penix, QB, Washington
Previous: Michael Penix, QB, Washington
The Raiders need a quarterback, especially in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Assuming the Broncos take McCarthy, how can the Raiders pass on Penix here? Can the Raiders really pass on a great deep ball thrower that led Washington to the National Championship game?
14. New Orleans Saints — JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Previous: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon
The Saints still have a serviceable quarterback in 32-year-old Derek Carr, but as a result of Odunze going to the Jets at No. 10, New Orleans takes an elite offensive tackle in Alabama’s JC Lathan.
15. Indianapolis Colts — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Previous: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts have a franchise quarterback, solid offensive line, elite running back and solid receiving weapons. Time to bolster their secondary with one of the best defensive backs in this draft class.
16. Seattle Seahawks — Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Previous: Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
The temptation is there for new head coach Mike Macdonald to use his first draft pick on defense, but the Seahawks need to solidify the interior of their offensive line. Seattle will need to establish a strong ground game similar to Baltimore’s success with Macdonald now on staff. They stay regional with the 6-foot-6, 334-pound Oregon State tackle.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars — Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Previous: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Thomas put on a show at the combine and LSU’s pro day. The speedy wideout becomes the Calvin Ridley replacement in Jacksonville.
18. Cincinnati Bengals — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Previous: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
This seems like a more realistic spot for Bowers, who many project as a top-10 overall draft pick. He is a great receiving tight end, but teams should have learned from the Kyle Pitts selection that reaching at this position is a huge mistake. Joe Burrow adds another weapon to a loaded offense.
19. Los Angeles Rams — Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
Previous: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Rams have a first-round draft pick for the first time since 2017, and select the 6-foot-3, 320-pound center from Oregon.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Previous: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Pittsburgh hit on Joey Porter last year, so they pair the long and explosive Wiggins on the opposite side of the field. With Justin Fields on the roster, this is a legit AFC Championship contender. Stopping the pass remains the primary need in a conference with Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
21. Miami Dolphins — Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Previous: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The 6-foot-4, 319-pound Washington-product is a projected left tackle anchor for any NFL team. Either Fautanu or Guyton is a great fit here with prioritized protection for Tua Tagovailoa. How many years does 32-year-old Terron Armstead have left?
22. Philadelphia Eagles — Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Previous: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean can play both cornerback or safety and is also an accomplished punt returner. The Eagles secondary struggled all season, and Philadelphia drafted DT, LB and OL with the first three picks last season.
23. Minnesota Vikings — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Previous: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (to Houston)
The Vikings need to improve their defensive line, so after securing their franchise quarterback, they get an elite interior defensive lineman.
24. Dallas Cowboys — Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Previous: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The textbook Dallas pick is offensive line. At 6-foot-7, 340-pounds, Mims profiles very close to his former teammate Broderick Jones, who went 14th to Pittsburgh in last year’s draft.
25. Green Bay Packers — Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
Previous: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
Completely agree with Jeff Ratcliffe on this pick. Green Bay’s offensive line foundation is built around David Bakhtiari, who has played just 13 total games the last three seasons. Paul stands 6-foot-7, 315-pounds with 36-inch arms.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Previous: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Tampa Bay doesn’t reach for a quarterback, taking elite Alabama cornerback McKinstry with their first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
27. Arizona Cardinals — Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Previous: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Arizona needs defensive help everywhere, and with Murphy they get an elite interior defensive lineman to bolster their front line.
28. Buffalo Bills — Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan
Previous: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan
Teams attacked the Bills on the ground, as Buffalo ranked just 17th in run defense DVOA. Jenkins fills the biggest need.
29. Detroit Lions — Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Previous: Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
In a bit of a surprise move, the Lions select the best player available instead of addressing their defensive needs. The offensive line needs to remain strong, and Barton is a great replacement option with Jonah Jackson and Graham Glasgow on expiring deals.
30. Baltimore Ravens — Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
Previous: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The Ravens continue to solidify their secondary with the long and explosive Missouri product.
31. San Francisco 49ers — Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Previous: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
As a result of the volume of offensive linemen selected before this pick, San Francisco takes a pass rusher in Chop Robinson after potentially moving on from Chase Young.
32. Kansas City Chiefs — Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Previous: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
The more I watched Franklin at Oregon, the more I was impressed. Franklin stands 6-foot-2 with 4.4 speed, serving as the perfect addition to second-year wideout Rashee Rice and newly acquired Marquise Brown.
