MagicSportsBreakdown: Super Bowl LVII — Chiefs vs. Eagles

We’re a week away from the Super Bowl, so as we prepare for the game from a betting perspective, I took a deep dive into Super Bowl betting and statistical trends. All stats and data are courtesy FTNData.com unless stated otherwise.

For more of my SB content, be sure to read the pace and playcalling article as well.

Super Bowl LVII Betting Trends

• Kansas City opened as a 1-point favorite, but that quickly shifted to PHI with approximately 62% of public bets coming in on the Birds. It went as high as -2.5 before settling at the current number, PHI -1. 
• The total has less movement, opening at 49.5 and moving to 50.5 despite the public favoring the UNDER. 
• Favorites are 36-20 in the Super Bowl, but with CIN covering last season, eight of the last 11 underdogs have covered.
• Five of the last seven Super Bowls have gone UNDER, including four straight. 

• Both teams averaged 28.7 points per game this season. 
• PHI had one of the easiest schedules to get here (fourth in points per game allowed, 18.7), beating Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson while KC had to go through two No. 1 picks in Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.
• PHI only played four playoff teams, with four intraconference games against the Giants (not a good team) and Dallas. They also had matchups against Jacksonville and Minnesota. They went 5-1, with the loss coming against Dallas.

• PHI allowed 30-plus points four times (DAL, DET, GB, WAS). DAL and DET were their only opponents with top-five offenses (tossing out the SF game due to the early injury). 
• PHI led most pass rush stats — first in pressure rate, first in sacks, third in QB hurries.
• KC played seven playoff teams this season, going 6-2 (two wins vs. LAC). They beat SF, JAX, TB and SEA. There losses were to BUF and CIN. 
• PHI finished 11th in points per drive allowed. They allowed 21.6 PPG away (11th), which was +6.6 points per game more than they did at Lincoln Financial Stadium (including the playoffs). 

• Patrick Mahomes has appeared in three of the last four Super Bowls. Tom Brady also appeared in three Super Bowls in his first six years in the league. 
• Brady appeared in 10 of the last 21 Super Bowls, winning seven times. 

• The 2021 Rams, 2016 Patriots and 2008 Steelers teams are the only three teams in the last 18 years who had a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game. That trend will have to wait at least another year with PHI and KC going 14-3 in the regular season. 
• Per Football Outsiders, KC finished first in offensive pass DVOA. Excluding SF last week who lost their third-string QB on the opening drive, PHI has only faced one other top-five pass DVOA, at DET in Week 1 (38-35 PHI win).
• PHI allowed the second-fewest field goals per game (KC seventh fewest) 
• PHI was good against TEs per Football Outsiders DVOA (sixth), but with their CBs funneling targets inside they saw the 10^th-most TE targets against. 
• KC TEs (aka Travis Kelce) saw the second-highest combined target share (32.7%). 

• PHI targeted TEs at a 18.3% rate after 25.6% in 2021 and 30.3% in 2020. That dropoff is thanks to the arrival of A.J. Brown, who combined with DeVonta Smith for a 55.95% target share. PHI WRs combined for a league-high 69.6% target share. 
• KC targeted WRs on just 48.9% of pass attempts (31st). 
• PHI targeted their RBs at a 12.1 rate (32nd). KC was 20th (18.6%) 
• KC was a good matchup for fantasy purposes, allowing the second-most FP to QBs, 12th to RBs, eighth to WRs and 13th to TEs. For those planning on playing showdown, they were 21st in points allowed to kickers and the fewest FPPG to DSTs.
• With all the injuries to KC WRs last week it is important to look at the utilization. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led all WRs with a 69% route participation (25% target rate), Skyy Moore was second (54% route participation, 28% target rate). What really stood out is Isiah Pacheco coming in third (45% route participation, 28% target rate), ahead of Jerick McKinnon (30% route participation, 28% target rate). Noah Gray was out there (47% route participation) but only saw a 4% target rate with Travis Kelce doing his thing (82% route participation, 21% target rate). 
• The PHI RB usage has been something to monitor as well. Miles Sanders led PHI RBs with a 47% rush share this season but has seen 38% and 25% in their two playoff games. Kenneth Gainwell has benefited, going from 9% this season to 30% in the playoffs. Gainwell also leads in routes run 18-9 in the two playoff games. 

For more utilization stats, check out the Player Utilization tool.