Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s second topic: The fantasy value of some key No. 2 running backs around the league.
The moment before your favorite band takes the stage a palpable buzz envelops the arena. Energized, you rise to your feet in excitement.
As your rock heroes stand in fixed positions and grip their instruments, the surrounding crowd roars in euphoria. Guitars begin to strum. Cymbals crash. High from the rafters a spotlight shines down as the lead singer belts lyrics everyone in the building, you included, echo in unison.
Remember those days?
Chances are you know everything about each band member — their look, their personality, their sleeping habits — everything. You’re a fan club member after all. However, the more casual devotees enveloping you in Section 8 are probably not nearly as educated. They may know some intricacies about the singer or guitarist, but ask them a specific question about the habits of the bassist and a blank stare adorns the face. …
For every Axl Rose, there’s a Duff McKaggan, the forgotten background guy feverishly working his fingers to create catchy groovy rhythms. Tina Weymouth (Talking Heads), Aston Barrett (Bob Marley and the Wailers), Louis Johnson (Michael Jackson), Jack Bruce (Cream) — across the musical spectrum these are just a few legendary bassists who were constantly overshadowed.
After all, as The Beatles’ Paul McCartney, a bassist himself, once famously said, “None of us wanted to be the bass player. In our minds he was the fat guy who always played at the back.”
Though not tubsters, several running backs hang in the shadows, eclipsed by frontmen higher on the depth chart. Yes, their faces may not grace the album cover or inspire fantasy football team names, but their box score contributions are integral to any flex-crazed format.
Not to be overlooked, here are my favorite second fiddles in fantasy football this season, RBs poised to slap the bass:
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles
(RB49, 129.4 ADP)
Squatty, versatile and equipped with a squirrel-like quick twitch, the Eagles RB is in position to soar as Miles Sanders’ primary flank. Late last year during a four-game stretch working alongside the starter, he ranked RB7 in 0.5 PPR. Using FTN’s slick splits tool, in Weeks 13-17 he averaged 87.5 total yards per game, snagged 23 receptions and tallied four total touchdowns on just over 15 touches per contest. His 11.5 yards after contact per reception and 3.97 YAC per attempt were otherworldly. Topping the ice cream with colorful sprinkles, he was 3-for-3 for the year on carries for TDs inside the 5. In summary, when he touched the rock sparks flew.
Doug Pederson is a running back accumulator who typically deploys his stable in a rotational fashion. But without a veteran threat pushing him, Scott is penned in for 10-12 touches per game. Behind Philly’s inflexible offensive line, he should maximize those opportunities. Think of him as Jordan Howard with hands, a player capable of 800 total yards and 45-55 receptions with 4-6 TDs.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
(RB48, 120.9)
Polished, pulverizing and multidimensional, Pollard owns the necessary characteristics to throttle the competition. Make no mistake, he’s the Donkey to Dallas’ Shrek, Ezekiel Elliott, but the jackass, even in limited doses, packs quite the kick. Last year, no rusher, not even the Football Frankenstein Derrick Henry generated a higher YAC per attempt mark (4.51) than Pollard. He also forced on 25.7% of his touches and ranked No. 11 in yards created per touch.
New Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy mystified the fantasy masses with his steadfast commitment to a committee approach while calling shots in Green Bay. Zeke is undoubtedly the workhorse, but it’s possible he cedes a few touches per game to Pollard. If the latter shapeshifts into Dallas’ version of Kareem Hunt, he would be one of the flexiest, sexiest RBs in the fantasy game. Dak Prescott and Co., operating behind an impenetrable offensive line, will live in the red zone this season.
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Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
(RB45, 105.5)
If Dalvin Cook’s contract demands intensify, the fantasy stud’s tag-team partner is sure to pile drive would-be tacklers. Mattison is by no means a sprinter (4.67 40-yard). His athletic profile comps to “Total Junk” Yeldon for crying out loud. But he makes up for his absent speed with sharp vision and assertive cuts, ideal attributes needed to thrive in Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme. When his 5-foot-11, 221-pound frame plows full steam downhill, he obliterates tacklers.
Admittedly, Mattison disappointed when gifted double-digit touches last year. It’s why Mike Boone zealots continue to obnoxiously scream “FREE HIM!” whenever granted a platform. A deeper dive, however, yields positive results. Last year, he ranked RB16 in YAC per attempt (3.22) and RB15 in yards created per touch. Given Cook’s injury-plagued history and ongoing financial dispute, Mattison’s odds of churning out RB2-level lines at some point are significant.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints
(RB42, 102.5)
Murray is the old trusty high-mileage F-150 your gramps has cruised around in for 40 years. It may have antiquated technology and cosmetic flaws, but it can still reliably tow valuable cargo from Point A to Point B. When thrust into a primary role with Alvin Kamara ailing last season, the veteran left grill marks imprinted on defender torsos. Just look at his performances against Chicago and Arizona. In those contests he reached 150 total yards in each, grabbed 14 total passes and crossed the chalk four times. Mouthwatering.
Under the hood, he ranked No. 18 in yards after contact per attempt (3.18) and forced a missed tackle on 18.9% of his carries in 2019. When called upon, Murray always inflicts damage, especially functioning behind one of the game’s most inflexible offensive lines. If again elevated into a 15- to 20-touch workload, he’s sure to produce RB1-level numbers.
And don’t forget about …
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
(RB30, 60.9)
Molded for the NFL game at 5-foot-10, 209 pounds, the former Buckeye was very efficient last fall in Columbus. In Ohio State’s zone read system, he ranked RB4 in total yards after contact, RB12 in missed tackles forced and accumulated the most carries of 15-plus yards (31). His sharp vision, burst, contact balance and route versatility should stand out in Baltimore’s conservative and well-blocked scheme, a system that ran the rock 37.2 times per game in ‘19. One awkward Mark Ingram knee-bend away from RB1 numbers, he’s a terrific mid-draft target.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
(RB29, 58.4)
Content in Cleveland, the former fantasy megastar still illuminates, though in a secondary role. As his ADP suggests, he commands a premium price, but on pace for 74 receptions from Weeks 10-17 the Brown is certainly capable of getting down in PPR formats. Given Nick Chubb’s pads-cracking power, Hunt’s TD total is likely capped at six. Still, he should again register 10-11 touches per game. Kevin Stefanski has designs to deploy him all over the field. Oh, and most enticing, if Cleveland’s cursed ways sabotage their season early, don’t be shocked if Hunt lands with another team at the trade deadline. With the right suitor he could revert to a workhorse role. Arousing.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
(RB43, 103.7)
Moss is a classic grinder who wins through attrition. Last season with the Utah Utes, he ranked RB8 in total yards after contact, RB2 in total missed tackles forced and No. 14 in carries of 15-plus yards. Stocky and powerfully built at 5-foot-9, 223 pounds, he showcases the elusiveness, contact balance, leg drive and authoritative finishing skill to wear defenses down. Sliding into Frank Gore’s vacated 10-12 touch-per-game role as Devin Singletary’s change of pace, expect roughly 700-plus combined yards and 4-6 TDs this season. Surprised by the TD projection? Don’t be. Gore finished RB23 in red-zone attempts in 2019.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos
(RB39, 94.5)
Lindsay, a Bitter Betsy when the Broncos signed Melvin Gordon this past offseason, was justified in his disgruntledness. Off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons he did nothing, at least on the surface, to deserve a demotion. However, his sub-50 ranking in pass-blocking efficiency and tepid success as a receiver motivated the Broncos to sign a multipurpose veteran. If Drew Lock takes a quantum leap forward in his development and the big uglies continue to create wide lanes, Denver’s offense is sure to hum. Under that scenario, Lindsay would be an occasionally employable flex back in 12-team leagues. Undeniably, this is Gordon’s backfield. Expect Lindsay to handle 30-35% of the opportunity share at most.
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Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers
(RB56, 166.0)
There’s a raging debate at FTN headquarters between rookie Joshua Kelley and Jackson. No, not a soul is questioning the pythons or mythical horsey tattoos of Austin Ekeler. He’s the unrivaled featured back in L.A.’s offense. It’s all about the numero dos. Whoever secures the role in an offense featuring a plus run-blocking line should handle 9-12 grips per game, occasional red-zone work included. Jackson has to be the odds-on favorite. He’s more experienced — important in these COVID-19 times — and flat-out better. On 82 career carries, he tallied a divine 3.22 YAC per attempt and 21.9 missed tackle rate. Impressive.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
(RB52, 145.4)
Your teenager untethered by the impending TikTok banishment. That’s how Jonathan Taylor investors will respond to every Marlon Mack and Hines touch early on this season. The pint-sized pass catcher and Mack should have defined roles in a crowded Indy backfield, with the former operating as the club’s version of James White. Philip Rivers leans heavily on his RBs as safety valves. Chargers rushers ranked No. 11 over higher each of the past three years in vertical production. Toss in Frank Reich’s admission Hines could be utilized on all three downs and he’s a near lock for 60-plus receptions.
DeAndre Washington, Kansas City Chiefs
(RB62, 194.1)
Washington is the four-bottle equivalent boxed red wine available at any liquor store. Easy-drinking, surprisingly tolerable and downright cheap — he’ll get you and your thrifty grandma drunk without breaking the bank. He’s a budget back who, thanks to Damien Williams opting out, becomes super fascinating. Promoted first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire will shoulder the bulk, but Washington may log a solid 6-8 touches per game, in the league’s most prolific offense. Sure-handed and impactful in a pinch — with the Raiders he totaled 238 combined yards and a TD versus the Chargers and Broncos Weeks 16-17 last year — Patrick Mahomes’ former college teammate is a prize-worthy pick in the eleventh hour.
