NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Now that the preseason is over and teams have made their final cuts, it makes sense to take a look back at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end training camp battles I wrote about earlier this preseason.
It is worth noting that there are still several competitions that aren’t set in stone with the start of the NFL season just a week away. However, we have some level of clarity with all the positional battles. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
Carolina Panthers: Baker Mayfield vs. Sam Darnold
Winner: Baker Mayfield
Even when the original article was written, it was hard to envision a way for Baker Mayfield to lose the Panthers’ starting job given how bad Sam Darnold looked in 2021. It didn’t take Carolina long to establish that Baker was the starting quarterback for the 2022 season. Shortly after they announced that Baker would be the starter, Darnold suffered an ankle injury that will ultimately force him to start the season on the injured reserve. This is now Baker’s team as he looks to revitalize his career and jumpstart an offense that had just 14 total passing touchdowns in 2021.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mitch Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett
Winner: TBD
If the season started today, it seems likely Mitch Trubisky would take the opening snaps for the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Mike Tomlin hasn’t officially named a starting quarterback yet, so we are still in for a potential upset.
For what it’s worth, after a slow start to training camp, both quarterbacks flashed some solid ability when they were on offense. Trubisky has completed 24 of 32 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions this preseason (and moved the ball well down the field). After all of the rumors of Kenny Pickett struggling in training camp, he’s looked like an NFL-caliber quarterback (even though a lot of his snaps have come against backups), completing 29 of 36 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions.
Even though both quarterbacks have looked good this season, I’ll give Trubisky the initial nod given the difficult schedule (games against Cincinnati, New England, Cleveland, Buffalo and Tampa Bay in the first six weeks) to provide a veteran presence. If he (or the team) struggles out of the gate, don’t be surprised to see Pickett take over given his effective preseason performance.
Seattle Seahawks: Drew Lock vs. Geno Smith
Winner: Geno Smith
Most assumed Drew Lock would be the replacement for Russell Wilson after the Seahawks acquired him in the Russell Wilson trade. However, an up-and-down preseason (combined with an unfortunate COVID-19 diagnosis) ultimately led the team to go with Geno Smith after he put together an effective stretch in Seattle last season.
Smith didn’t exactly “wow” during the preseason. In three games, he completed 23 of 39 passes for 256 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions. Lock started the preseason strong (11/15 for 102 yards and two touchdowns) before missing valuable game reps in the second week. The veteran returned for the third game but was pressing to make up for lost time and completed just 13 of 24 passes for 171 yards and one touchdown with three interceptions. Ultimately, the steady play of Smith (and the audition he had in the same offense last season) was enough to win the job.
Running Backs
Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary vs. James Cook
Winner: Devin Singletary
After three preseason games, the “winner” of Buffalo’s backfield job is Devin Singletary. We are likely heading into another season where at least two (and possibly three) running backs all have a role in this offense. At this point, Singletary’s role looks to be most secure after the veteran running back played in just the second game, carrying the ball four times for 39 yards and catching one pass for four yards. Unfortunately for fantasy optimists, even a lack of playing time for Singletary couldn’t get James Cook a featured role in the offense.
Cook and Zack Moss split time throughout two preseason games, with Moss being held out of the final contest against the Panthers. The rookie mustered just 10 carries for 56 yards and three receptions for 27 yards in three preseason games. Moss played ahead of him throughout the preseason (and featured as a goal-line back), which means this backfield is more of a mess than any of us could have hoped. The one takeaway (based on playing time) is the fact that Buffalo seems content letting Singletary prove the hot ending to his preseason wasn’t a fluke.
Denver Broncos: Javonte Williams vs. Melvin Gordon
Winner: ???
Initially, it looked like this backfield could be settled thanks to a foot injury that limited Melvin Gordon throughout the preseason. However, all indications are that the veteran running back is healthy again, which once again makes this backfield a nightmare. While the team (and Gordon himself) admits that Javonte Williams will get the “starting” carries of the game, the likelihood is that both backs will once again split work in the backfield and eat into each other’s fantasy upside.
It will likely take an injury for either back to hit on a massive ceiling for fantasy football, which is also pretty hard to envision given the health of both players last season. In actuality, we are likely on a course to see another season of split carries (although it seems realistic to think that Williams will earn a bigger role than the even 50/50 split he shared last year). Regardless, it’s hard to be on Javonte Williams at his second-round price tag, especially when an equally effective Gordon can be drafted nearly nine rounds later.
Houston Texans: Dameon Pierce vs. Marlon Mack vs. Rex Burkhead
Winner: Dameon Pierce
At the start of the summer, it seemed logical to think that Lovie Smith would want to utilize a veteran running back like Marlon Mack next to the young, developmental Davis Mills. However, reports kept surfacing that the team loved Dameon Pierce and he was earning more and more work with the first team. Those reports were confirmed when the Texans decided to release Mack and tabbed Pierce as their starting running back just months after he was selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft.
Only time will tell how much of a role Pierce has in the offense (is he a two-down grinder of a full-on three-down workhorse?), but it’s clear the team loves the rookie and what he brings to the offense. Burkhead will likely have some sort of role throughout the season, but early fantasy drafters who took a shot on Pierce can’t be disappointed with this outcome.
Kansas City: Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Ronald Jones
Winner: Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
Tracking the Chiefs backfield throughout the preseason has been somewhat of a nightmare. The team frequently rotated Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon and seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco with the first team. For a while, it seemed inevitable Ronald Jones would ultimately be cut. The fantasy industry drumbeat continued to grow louder and louder for Pacheco.
Ultimately, all four of the running backs made the team after Jones showed great rushing ability in the team’s last preseason game. It seems clear that Edwards-Helaire will get the first opportunity to run with the offense, but projecting usage between him, McKinnon, Pacheco and Jones is nearly impossible at this point. All four are draftable in fantasy drafts at the right point considering the team will likely ride whoever the hot hand is on any given week.
Miami Dolphins: Chase Edmonds vs. Raheem Mostert vs. Sony Michel
Winner: Chase Edmonds
All signs indicate that Chase Edmonds will get an opportunity to show that he has what it takes to be a lead running back in the NFL. Reports out of training camp suggest that the team loves his skill set and thinks he’s a perfect fit in Mike McDaniel’s wide zone running scheme. Edmonds is also the most accomplished receiver in the backfield (and is still somehow going in the seventh round of fantasy drafts), which should be a fantasy goldmine as NFL defenses try to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle from breaking off big plays.
Mostert looked healthy at the end of the preseason, but nobody knows how long his body will hold up. Miami cut Sony Michel at the end of the preseason, taking him completely out of the backfield equation. This looks like Edmonds backfield, but a late-round pick on Mostert probably isn’t the worst idea given how much this offense chews up running backs.
New England Patriots: Damien Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson
Winner: Both?
There were rumors throughout the preseason that the Patriots would be open to trading Damien Harris for the right price. That hasn’t happened yet. Given the fact that the team cut the sixth-round running back who flashed in the preseason (Kevin Harris) and Ty Montgomery is working his way back from an injury, it seems unlikely they will move on any time soon. Weirdly, that makes both Patriots running backs winners in their own right.
For Harris, he seems ready to reprise his role as a volume rusher that will likely get goal-line work. Stevenson on the other hand is poised to take on the pass game role until Montgomery can get healthy again. Once Montgomery is back to full strength, it is anyone’s guess as to how the touches will shake out in New England’s run game. This backfield remains better in the best ball dart throw since both players’ ADPs are suppressed due to uncertainty.
Seattle Seahawks: Rashaad Penny vs. Kenneth Walker
Winner: Rashaad Penny
One of the biggest backfield debates of the offseason was ultimately resolved by an injury. Kenneth Walker looked productive during his opportunity in the backfield in the first preseason game but suffered an ambiguous core muscle injury that required surgery. Even with surgery, core injuries are fickle and take time to recover, which should allow Penny a chance to prove his impressive stretch at the end of 2021. As long as Penny is healthy, the Seahawks will have no reason to rush Walker back onto the field. Walker will eventually earn a role, but Pete Carroll has shown a tendency to ride the hot hand in the backfield. Assuming Penny stays on the field, he could be poised to have a massive season in 2022.
Wide Receivers
Buffalo Bills: Jamison Crowder vs. Isaiah McKenzie vs. Khalil Shakir
Winner: Isaiah McKenzie?
The most anticipated training camp battle for Buffalo barely turned into a battle. Isaiah McKenzie took the first reps at slot receiver throughout training camp and was handled like the starter in preseason action, playing sparingly with the first-team offense. Unfortunately, McKenzie has been working through an unknown injury since Saturday and is now at risk of missing the first game of the season. If McKenzie is out, then it seems like Jamison Crowder would be the first person to get the slot snaps even though Khalil Shakir had a very strong preseason. Buffalo’s team is built to win now, so it seems very likely that they will defer to a veteran over a day three rookie to begin the season.
Even with that knowledge, all indications are that Isaiah McKenzie will be the team’s slot receiver when he’s healthy because of his explosive playmaking upside.
Carolina Panthers: Terrace Marshall vs. Rashard Higgins
Winner: Neither?
Terrace Marshall seemed poised to be the team’s starting third receiver throughout the preseason after a wildly disappointing rookie season. Then, the team decided to trade for Laviska Shenault, which throws the team’s third receiver spot in flux. The team has a second-round pick invested in Marshall, so it is somewhat telling that they brought in another highly drafted prospect to try and add to the wide receiver room. Ultimately, this may be a receiving room to just avoid outside of DJ Moore.
Dallas Cowboys: James Washington vs. Jalen Tolbert
Winner: Jalen Tolbert
Jalen Tolbert had a solid preseason, but this competition was settled once James Washington went down with a foot injury. Tolbert will work as Dallas’ WR2 until Michael Gallup (or Washington) returns from injury. If he can start hot, he will earn at least a role as the team’s WR3 when everyone is fully healthy.
Green Bay Packers: Allen Lazard vs. Sammy Watkins vs. Christian Watson
Winner: Take Your Pick
Allen Lazard seems firmly entrenched as the team’s WR1 given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. After that, it is anyone’s guess as to who will emerge from this offense. Rodgers has spent time praising Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson at various times throughout the preseason. Lazard will be the team’s top wide receiver, but this just feels like an offense that is going to spread the ball around to all their different playmakers, making everyone fantasy viable but nobody a consistent lineup piece.
Kansas City Chiefs: Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Skyy Moore
Winner: JuJu Smith-Schuster
JuJu Smith-Schuster looked like himself throughout the preseason until a lower-body injury slowed him down and forced him to miss some practice. However, when healthy, he looked like he was going to be Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite target in the passing game to start the season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling flashed at times and Skyy Moore showed the playmaking ability that got him drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft. But MVS will have boom or bust weeks as a deep threat while Moore will likely need time to develop and acclimate to the NFL game. If JuJu is healthy, expect him to lead the receiver corps in targets.
Tight End
Denver Broncos: Albert Okwuegbunam vs. Greg Dulcich
Winner: Albert Okwuegbunam
It’s been a strange offseason for Albert Okwuegbunam. He saw a huge value spike after the Noah Fant trade. Then he saw his value plummet when he was playing in the fourth quarter of the team’s second preseason game. After that, he was completely held out of the team’s third preseason game with the team’s other starters. We got clarity about his role shortly after that when the team decided to put Greg Dulcich on the injured reserve as he dealt with a hamstring injury. Okwuegbunam will be the starting tight end and is a size-speed specimen. His ADP hasn’t fully recovered, so he’s an excellent value this close to the season.
Indianapolis Colts: Mo Alie-Cox vs. Kylen Granson vs. Jelani Woods
Winner: Mo Alie-Cox
Mo Alie-Cox will go into the season as Indianapolis’ starting tight end. We just don’t know how fantasy relevant that position will be. The veteran tight end will take over Jack Doyle’s role as the inline blocker (which will also mean running some routes on play-action plays), but Granson may carve out a role as a slot tight end thanks to a shaky receiving corp. The one thing we know for sure? Jelani Woods is truly a developmental tight end after looking lost for most of the preseason.
New York Jets: C.J. Uzomah vs. Tyler Conklin
Winner: Uzomah for real football, Conklin for fantasy
The Jets signed both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin this offseason, leading to an ambiguous situation heading into the 2022 season. Based on the preseason, Uzomah will be the inline tight end (and a possible red zone target), but Conklin has been more heavily targeted throughout the preseason. Both players were viable fantasy options last season, but they will likely cannibalize each other’s touches on the same team.
