Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Earlier this week, I looked at the training camp battles that will be happening this summer between the different quarterbacks and running backs in the NFL. In this edition, we will be diving into the different wide receiver and tight end battles that will be taking place at the same time.
Understanding wide receiver and tight end depth charts can be an edge when it comes to drafting. Knowing the third and fourth options in a high-volume team’s passing attack allows fantasy managers an opportunity to grab high upside picks that can become fantasy starters. Below are the most notable training camp battles to monitor during the offseason.
Wide Receiver
Buffalo Bills: Jamison Crowder vs. Isaiah McKenzie vs. Khalil Shakir
The outside receivers for the Buffalo Bills are locked and loaded, but there is potential for a three-way battle to determine who the primary slot receiver will be in a high-volume passing offense after Buffalo decided to let Cole Beasley walk in free agency. Instead, Buffalo chose to re-sign Isaiah McKenzie (two years, $4.4 million), signed Jamison Crowder (one year, $2 million), and drafted Khalil Shakir in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. All three players have different strengths and some glaring weaknesses, which are suppressing their fantasy ADP and making them interesting values.
McKenzie has spent the last three years in Buffalo and has the most explosiveness of any of the players, but he has struggled to carve out significant playing time. Over half of his production last season came in a Week 16 matchup against the New England Patriots (12 targets, 11 receptions, 125 yards, one touchdown), the only game he had a snap share greater than 32%.
After a strong first season with the Jets in 2019 (78 receptions, 833 yards, six touchdowns), Jamison Crowder has struggled to stay healthy. Crowder has missed at least four games in each of the last two seasons, but he was able to still earn targets when he was healthy in 2021 despite the additions of Corey Davis and Elijah Moore to the Jets offense. The veteran receiver averaged 5.9 targets, 4.3 receptions and 37.3 yards per game despite playing with Zach Wilson, Mike White, Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco at quarterback throughout the season.
Shakir had his most productive season with Boise State in 2021, catching 77 passes for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns. The rookie had a very productive college career but measured in smaller than expected at the combine (6’0, 196 pounds), which ultimately caused him to slide to Day 3 of the draft. Shakir will have an uphill battle to earn snaps in his first season as he navigates the jump from a mid-major conference to the NFL.
Of the three players, Crowder is the best bet to win the starting slot position and has shown in his career that he can provide strong play and has an extended history of being a starter in three-receiver sets. In deeper fantasy leagues (or best ball leagues), McKenzie is worth a dart throw in the last two rounds of the draft. If Crowder gets injured, his role will increase, and we have seen him be productive when the team feeds him targets. Shakir is a nice bet in dynasty leagues but has a tough road to targets in 2022 as he acclimates to the NFL.
Carolina Panthers: Terrace Marshall vs. Rashard Higgins
The Baker Mayfield signing gives us the ability to dream about a Carolina offense that supports more than DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey in fantasy football. Both Moore and Robbie Anderson seem entrenched as the teams outside wide receivers, leaving the WR3 role up for grabs between Terrace Marshall and Rashard Higgins.
Marshall had a somewhat promising start to his career over his first three games (14 targets, 10 receptions, 91 yards) before a series of injuries ultimately pushed him to the sideline. The LSU-product would finish his first season with just 30 targets, 17 receptions and 138 receiving yards and finishing behind players like Ameer Abdullah, Chuba Hubbard, Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas in targets.
The Panthers signed Higgins in free agency to provide quality depth and compete for a receiving role after six seasons with the Cleveland Browns. Despite being a fifth-round pick in 2016, Higgins has provided solid play throughout his career, averaging 37.5 targets, 22.8 receptions, 315 receiving yards, and two touchdowns per season.
At this point, both players are dart-throw late-round picks in fantasy drafts. People will naturally want to make a connection between Mayfield and Higgins due to their rapport working together with the Browns. However, Marshall is a former second-round pick and has a five-star pedigree while being productive on one of the most historic offenses in college football history. Marshall will get an opportunity to show his rookie season was an injury-riddled fluke given his pedigree and the investment the team made during the draft last season. In the late rounds of fantasy drafts, he offers immense upside for virtually zero cost.
Dallas Cowboys: James Washington vs. Jalen Tolbert
With Michael Gallup working his way back from a late-season ACL tear, both James Washington and Jalen Tolbert will likely have roles in the Dallas Cowboys offense to start the 2022 season, especially after the departure of Amari Cooper. However, once Gallup is ready to return, one of these players will secure a role in three-receiver sets and the other will be relegated to a depth piece on offense, which is why they are on this list.
The Cowboys signed Washington to a deal in free agency after he spent four seasons in Pittsburgh. Despite ceding playing time and touches to players like Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, Washington found a way to average 54.5 targets, 28.5 receptions, 407.3 receiving yards and 2.8 touchdowns per season. Washington signed just a one-year, $1.18 million deal during free agency.
The Cowboys also added Tolbert in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft after a stellar career at South Alabama. During the last two seasons in college, Tolbert had 146 receptions, 2,559 yards and 16 touchdowns. He was also able to put concerns about small school competition aside by having a fantastic Senior Bowl against tougher competition. He should also have a smoother transition to the NFL after four seasons in college.
Tolbert is the best bet to carve out a more concrete role in the Dallas offense this season. While Washington has four years of NFL experience, he’s on a one-year prove it deal and has struggled to beat out talented receivers his entire career. Additionally, Washington already missed mandatory mini-camp due to a foot injury, giving Tolbert valuable time to work with Dak Prescott during the late spring. Look for Tolbert to earn targets early in the season and maintain a role in the offense once Gallup returns, giving him an excellent chance to his WR70 ADP.
Green Bay Packers: Allen Lazard vs. Sammy Watkins vs. Christian Watson
One of the truest ideas in football is the fact that targets are earned. It is part of the reason why Davante Adams has averaged 142 targets a season over the past six seasons tied to Aaron Rodgers. However, Adams is now a Las Vegas Raider, seemingly opening up a high-volume role in the Packers’ offense. Social media will tell you with conviction that the trade of Adams has opened up an opportunity for Allen Lazard to step in and become a target funnel for Rodgers and the Packers. As fun as that is to imagine, I am a bit more skeptical.
The Packers searched for a WR2 to complement Adams for years. Lazard was signed to the team as an undrafted free agent in 2018 and was able to earn a consistent role on the offense in 2019 that has continued to grow each of the last three seasons. However, despite the team’s need for a second receiver, Lazard’s best season came in 2021, where he totaled 40 receptions on 60 targets for 513 yards and eight touchdowns on a team that threw the ball 593 times. While these are all career-best numbers, it is somewhat telling that he had over 100 fewer targets than Adams and finished behind Aaron Jones in targets.
The Packers also made additions to the team in free agency in the draft. Sammy Watkins signed a 1-year, $1.85 million contract after an underwhelming season with the Baltimore Ravens (27 receptions, 394 yards, one touchdown). Watkins has never been able to replicate his first two seasons with Buffalo in 2014 and 2015 (125 receptions, 2,029 yards, 15 touchdowns), but he does have talent and will be on the field for the Packers. Green Bay also drafted Christian Watson in the second round of this year’s draft. Watson has excellent size (6-foot-4, 208 pounds) and exceptional speed (4.36 40-yard dash) but is a small school prospect with extremely limited college production.
With Adams out of town, it is far more likely Rodgers decides to spread the ball around to his wide receivers (and running backs) than lock in on one target as he did with arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL on his roster. As it stands, Lazard (WR45), Watson (WR57) and Watkins (WR81) are all going off the board at reasonable prices in fantasy drafts. That said, it is hard to have an interest in a wide receiver room where there is no clear-cut top option in the passing attack. Lazard has the best opportunity to lead the team in targets given his rapport with Rodgers, but there is a very real world where no option in the passing game tops 100 targets during the 2022 season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Skyy Moore
Like Green Bay, the Kansas City Chiefs moved on from their best wide receiver during the offseason, leaving a massive target void in the passing attack. Travis Kelce will remain a steady presence in the passing attack and likely lead the team in targets the Chiefs will be hoping the free agent combination of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined with second-round draft pick Skyy Moore can fill the void left by Tyreek Hill.
Purely in terms of role, MVS will step into the field stretcher role Hill has occupied throughout his career, though that doesn’t mean that he will earn the same volume of targets. In four seasons with the Packers, Valdes-Scantling averaged 61.8 targets, 30.8 receptions, 538.2 receiving yards and 3.3 touchdowns per season. Conversely, Smith-Schuster will likely occupy the slot role for the Chiefs after signing a one-year, $10.75 million contract this offseason. Smith-Schuster gambled on himself last offseason, spurning an offer from Kansas City to return to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, injuries forced him to miss 12 games, leading him to finish with just 15 receptions for 129 yards. The five-year veteran has yet to match his production as a second-year receiver paired with Antonio Brown (111 receptions, 1,426 yards, seven touchdowns). We have seen him be productive as recently as 2020 (97 receptions, 831 yards, nine touchdowns) despite having competition from Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
The real wild card in this whole situation is Moore. He declared for the NFL draft after his junior season despite playing with Western Michigan. In 30 career games, Moore caught 171 passes for 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns, which was good enough to make him a second-round pick. Moore will have to acclimate to the NFL after playing MAC-level competition in college, but he has good size (5-10, 191 pounds) and speed (4.41 40-yard dash) combined with strong route-running abilities.
For the 2022 season, Smith-Schuster seems like the safest bet to be the most fantasy-relevant wide receiver as long as he remains healthy. MVS will have explosive plays, but deep shots down the field aren’t a very efficient way to get fantasy points. The presence of MVS’s deep threat ability and Travis Kelce should open up plenty of space for Smith-Schuster to draw targets. It would likely take an injury to him for Moore to earn consistent playing time.
Tight End
Denver Broncos: Albert Okwuegbunam vs. Greg Dulcich
When Seattle sent Noah Fant to Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade, people immediately flocked to Albert Okwuegbunam as a tight end to target in fantasy drafts. Okwuegbunam split time with Fant last season but was still able to catch 33 of 40 targets for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Albert O’s monopoly over the tight end position didn’t last long with the Broncos selecting Greg Dulcich in the third round of the draft. Dulcich was relatively overlooked coming out of college, but he caught 68 passes for 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns during his last two seasons at UCLA. While those numbers aren’t spectacular, they represent at least a 16% target share during his last two seasons in college.
When it comes to fantasy, Okwuegbunam will get the first opportunity to establish himself as the starting tight end. Okwuegbunam has the necessary size (6-5, 258 pounds) and is extremely explosive as a runner (4.49 40-yard dash) to either attack the seams or generate yards after the catch. Okwuegbunam is currently being drafted as the TE15, which feels about right for a tight end that will likely finish third or fourth on his team in targets. Don’t let the presence of Dulcich scare you off the potential Albert O can provide at the tight end position.
Indianapolis Colts: Mo Alie-Cox vs. Kylen Granson vs. Jelani Woods
Mo Alie-Cox truthers were pumped this offseason when Jack Doyle announced his retirement. After years of being a developmental project, Alie-Cox would finally be able to see his role grow past the career-high 55% snap share he saw in 2021 that led to 24 receptions for 316 yards and four touchdowns. While the Colts still had 2021 fourth-round pick Kylen Granson on the roster, he was seen as more of a developmental tight end who would need more time to grow into the role. That joy got slightly derailed when the Colts decided to take Jelani Woods in the third round of the NFL draft.
Woods has all of the traits that teams look for in good tight ends. He ran a shocking 4.61 40-yard dash at 6-7, 252 pounds. Woods was recruited as a quarterback in high school before ultimately moving to wide receiver at Oklahoma State. After three underwhelming seasons, he transferred to Virginia where he was converted to tight end. That proved to be the right choice considering Woods had more receptions (44), yards (598) and touchdowns (eight) during his lone season at Virginia than he did in his three years with Oklahoma State combined.
From a fantasy perspective, Alie-Cox is the best bet to be a fantasy producer in the NFL this season. Both Granson and Woods are developmental prospects, with the latter still learning the intricacies of the tight end position. While Granson could see some receiving opportunities given the Colts’ thin depth chart at wide receiver, he’s still a project player and will struggle to get Alie-Cox off the field.
New York Jets: C.J. Uzomah vs. Tyler Conklin
The Jets spent this offseason upgrading the talent on their offense by drafting Garrett Wilson in the first round and Breece Hall in the second round of the NFL draft. Those moves came after the team spent free agency targeting the tight end position, signing both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin off the open market.
Both players enjoyed the best seasons of their careers in 2021 despite being on teams that had significant receiving talent ahead of them. Uzomah caught 49 of 63 targets for 493 yards and five touchdowns during the Bengals’ surprising run to the Super Bowl. Uzomah was able to take advantage of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon drawing the attention of opposing defenses to finish as the TE18 in fantasy points. Meanwhile, Conklin was able to benefit from increased playing time thanks to an Irv Smith meniscus tear before the season even began. The increased role allowed him to finish third on the Vikings in targets (87) and receptions (61) and fourth on the team in receiving yards (593) and touchdowns (three). Conklin finished the season as the TE16.
When it comes to fantasy, these moves complicate things. Both tight ends have shown they can be fantasy relevant if given an opportunity to play. They will not only be competing with each other for targets, but also will have to find a way to earn targets over Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the new look Jets offense.
When it comes to the 2022 fantasy season, Conklin is likely to be the tight end to target at the end of fantasy drafts. Uzomah will likely be used as a blocker who can run routes on early downs with Conklin getting the receiving work on third downs and red zone situations. The good news is that neither player is being prioritized in fantasy drafts. So you can choose to let the situation develop and grab the better player off waiver wires after a couple of weeks in the regular season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cameron Brate vs. Cade Otton
Rob Gronkowski’s retirement has elevated Cameron Brate’s ADP throughout July as people try to get a piece of Tampa Bay’s offense. Fantasy gamers want to have pieces of explosive passing attacks and the Buccaneers led the league in pass attempts last season. They also lost two parts of that offense (Antonio Brown and Gronkowski) while having a third slated to miss part of the regular season (Chris Godwin). Unfortunately, it would seem like putting your faith in Brate to produce sans all those weapons is a long shot.
The Buccaneers also drafted Cade Otton in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Otton was a modest producer in college, never topping 43 targets, 32 receptions, 350 receiving yards or three touchdowns in a season. However, he’s a solid player who could easily earn a role as a pass catcher, especially if the Buccaneers want to primarily utilize Brate as an inline blocker. The Buccaneers could also opt to funnel their targets through Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Leonard Fournette or Tyler Johnson in the passing attack, negating the need for a tight end downfield.
Since July 1, Brate has been going off the board as TE25 in NFC drafts. At that price, he is worth a shot considering he could see an elevated role in the offense while Chris Godwin recovers from his knee injury. At the very least, he could have a fantasy-relevant role based in the red zone. If Brate continues to climb on draft boards and works his way into the top-20 tight ends, he’s probably worth fading given the fact that the Buccaneers can easily fade the tight end out of their passing attack.
