NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We are four weeks into the NFL season, and it feels like we may know less than at the start. That also holds true for fantasy football, as every week we have seen multiple players outperform their projections! Very few players can be counted on for constant production every week thus far.
This week was no different. However, how many of these performances are indicators of what is to come versus blips on the radar? Below are a few takeaways from this week’s Sunday slate!
Kyle Pitts where art thou?
For yet another week, Kyle Pitts disappointed his fantasy managers. This has been a terrible season thus far, as he came into the week as TE15 with only 21.5 PPR points. Last week, he had a season-high eight targets which he turned into five receptions for 87 yards. So it was the right idea to think that heading into this week’s matchup we would see more targets for Pitts.
However, this was not the case. Pitts only saw four targets and had just one catch for 25 yards. It appears that drafting Drake London may have tanked Pitts’ fantasy value, as London has seen 32 targets through four games which leads the team – 10 more than Pitts. This lack of involvement is making him one of the hardest players to roster in fantasy, especially when we look at what it cost to roster him.
Even in a very volatile position, we may have to adjust to this new workload and pivot off the idea that Pitts is a must-start tight end – especially when you have players like Gerald Everett and Tyler Conklin outperforming him every week.
Josh Jacobs helps cement his lead role
Over the first four weeks, Josh Jacobs has slowly silenced the critics, and he slammed the door shut on them this week. He finished as the RB2 with 34.5 PPR points against a stout Broncos defense. He led all Raiders with 33 touches (28 carries and five receptions) and produced 175 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. He busted off a 43-yard run and showed great power and burst all day long.
Most importantly, the only other running backs to see any opportunities were Zamir White (two carries) and Brandon Bolden (one reception). With a current 7-1 touch ratio to Bolden on the season, it is pretty clear he is the lead back for this offense.
Additionally, coming into Week 4, Jacobs was fourth in the NFL with 14 missed tackles forced and eighth in yards after contact with 160 yards – according to FTN stats hub. Both of these only prove why he’s the lead back in this offense. It’s clear that all the offseason speculation was just that, and Jacobs is a solid RB2 with upside moving forward in fantasy.
Romeo Doubs is here to stay
After a couple of down weeks, Romeo Doubs has put together a pair of solid games for the Packers. Last week, he led the Packers in targets (8), receptions (8), yards (73) and touchdowns (1). He followed that up this week by leading the team in routes run, according to Next-Gen stats. He was tied for the team lead in targets with eight and scored one touchdown on the day.
However, he was so very close to a likely game-winning second touchdown that he dropped upon contact with the ground in the end zone. Doubs and Allen Lazard are the top two wide receivers for the Packers at the moment, as they both doubled the next-closest player in targets this week.
Now with back-to-back eight-target games, Doubs is becoming one of the safest wide receivers in fantasy. This consistent volume makes him a safe player to plug in and forget about in your flex position. He is shaping up to be one of the greatest values this draft season.
What’s up with the quarterbacks?
For yet again another week, we have seen a position that has been fairly steady for the past few years become extremely volatile. Outside of Josh Allen, no quarterback has finished as a QB1 every week, but there are multiple with at least two finishes inside the top 12. There are some surprises, like Jared Goff currently having two top-10 finishes including this week’s QB1 finish with 33.1 points – aside from tonight’s MNF game.
Additionally, Geno Smith also has two top-12 finishes and a top-2 finish this week with 31.7 points. Normal staples like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady only have two top-12 finishes combined (Rodgers in Week 3 and Wilson this week). It has been a nightmare trying to make a weekly decision on who to start and who to sit.
Unfortunately, I don’t think I can calm your nerves going forward. I think it is likely going to look like this each week. A few players like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert are more likely to become a bit more consistent down the stretch – I hope.
J.K. Dobbins a much-needed spark
It may have been a few weeks later than many of us fantasy managers hoped, but J.K. Dobbins exploded for a huge 22.3 PPR point game, which is good enough for an RB10 finish thus far. He did this on 17 touches, which he took for 63 scrimmage yards and two scores. However, most noticeable was his usage in the passing game, as he caught all four of his targets for 22 yards and a score.
He had a few explosive runs in the game that were offset by some plays that were blown up by a stout Bills defense. Although this performance was bolstered by two touchdowns, his usage in the red zone makes us believe he can sustain some resemblance of this until he gets back to full speed.
Additionally, he saw 39% of the rushing share, which led the team, and his 14% target share was fourth on the team this week. After only two games, he leads the Ravens backfield with 20 carries and is the only running back with a touchdown so far this season. All of this only helps solidify that he is a solid RB2 moving forward and will likely be a huge part of your fantasy rosters down the stretch.
Elijah Moore may be the odd man out
Many people had Elijah Moore pegged as a player to break out this season, which could still happen, but it looks like he is still the odd man out in the Jets receiving corps. Over the first three weeks of the season with Joe Flacco at the helm, Moore played 209 offensive snaps, leading the Jets, but only saw 14% of the target share.
On these 22 targets, he caught 12 of them for 139 yards but failed to find the end zone. On the flip side, rookie Garrett Wilson led the team with a 21% target share, 214 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns through the first three weeks. As we headed into Week 4, many managers hoped that Zach Wilson returning would shift things in Moore’s favor, but that was not the case.
Moore only saw four targets and trailed Corey Davis (7), Garrett Wilson (6), Breece Hall (6) and Tyler Conklin (5) in targets. On those few targets, he did produce 53 yards on three receptions, both of which were second on the team. It is still early, so there is time to bounce back, but it is starting to look like Moore may be the odd man out in this new-look Jets offense.
