NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Four weeks have come and gone, and it’s time to start making moves to win fantasy leagues. There are plenty of inferences that can be drawn from the different play-calling tendencies, and we have now seen player usage data in a larger sample size.
This article will continue to be published bi-weekly throughout the 2022 season. As always, recommendations in this article should be looked at through the lens of the fantasy manager’s starting lineups, scoring settings and roster size.
Leagues with deeper benches may want to hold some of these players, since a lot of leagues don’t have the waiver wire depth of others.
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
At this point, it is hard to justify rostering Justin Fields outside of Superflex or two-quarterback leagues. The Bears finally let Fields throw the ball more than 20 times, and he responded with 11 completions on 22 attempts for 174 yards. Fields also added seven rushes for 52 yards on the day. The Bears passing attack is just abysmal at this point, making Fields droppable in all 1QB leagues.
The Bears want to be a run-first team and lack the passing weapons to have a big day. It’s hard to start Fields given those conditions.
Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield isn’t doing much to make the Browns regret his exit this offseason. Through four games, Mayfield has just one game with greater than a 60% completion percentage and one game with more than 200 passing yards. The veteran quarterback has thrown for only one touchdown in each of Carolina’s first four games.
Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore are two of the more talented skill players in the NFL, but even they haven’t been able to carry Mayfield to a playable fantasy quarterback.
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Kenneth Gainwell scored a touchdown in Week 4, but he played less than half the snaps of Miles Sanders in a rain-soaked game against the Jaguars. Gainwell hasn’t had more than five carries in a game and hasn’t been featured much as a pass-catcher now that the Eagles have a plethora of downfield weapons. It would take a significant injury to Sanders for Gainwell to see any usable role in fantasy this season.
Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce has completely taken over the early-down work in Houston, but in Week 4 he started to eat into his third-down/passing work as well. Pierce ran 20 routes to Burkhead’s 14 against the Chargers and commanded one more target (six to five). Burkhead was more effective as a pass-catcher (five receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown), but he will need to keep scoring to have fantasy value.
This is Pierce’s backfield now, and fantasy managers should adjust accordingly.
Wide Receiver
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Kadarius Toney just isn’t getting on the field. The second-year receiver logged another missed game this week with a hamstring injury. Even when he has suited up, Toney has had difficulty getting on the field, logging just a 12% snap share in Week 1 and a 38% snap share in Week 2. Toney has just two rushes for 23 yards and two receptions on three targets for zero yards in two games played.
The Giants wide receiver corps is devastated by injury, but Toney is still struggling to play ahead of Richie James and David Sills. New York will also be navigating injuries to Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor going forward.
Toney is an explosive weapon in a receiving room devoid of talent, but if he hasn’t found his way onto the field yet, it’s hard to believe he’ll become a featured player going forward. I won’t blame fantasy managers for waiting to see what his role is with all the receiver injuries, but there isn’t much to indicate a massive change in his usage even if he is healthy.
Robbie Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Robbie Anderson exploded in Week 1 (five receptions, 102 yards and one touchdown), before ultimately failing to hit those same totals over the next three weeks combined. Since that first game, Anderson has just seven receptions for 72 yards. Baker Mayfield has been throwing shorter routes since the first week or taking off and scrambling, which has led to a bunch of no-show efforts from Anderson.
He’s an absolute boom-or-bust receiving option in a low-volume passing attack.
Tight End
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
Albert Okwuegbunam was a popular draft target as a late-round tight-end selection. That has not played out so far this season.
Through three weeks, Okwuegbunam has seen his snap share decrease each week and has drawn just 10 targets. He only has six receptions for 45 yards on those targets. This culminated in a Week 4 loss against the Raiders where Okwuegbunam logged just one snap in the entire game.
Albert O isn’t seeing the field and will soon have to compete with Greg Dulcich once he returns from the injured reserve. Time to let him go.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
If you held onto Cole Kmet waiting for more passing volume in Chicago, it is time to let him go. Kmet has just five receptions for 56 yards on the season, all of which have come in the last two weeks. Chicago is a low-volume passing attack and isn’t using Kmet down the field, giving him virtually no ceiling to go with an extremely low floor.
Fantasy managers are better off streaming tight ends every single week than trying to rely on big games from Kmet in a run-first offense.
