NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
A month into the NFL season, it’s easy to assume you have a handle on which players will be better and which will be worse in fantasy based on their early-season production. But even over four games, contextual quirks can create massive benefits and penalties for players. Before you buy into Jared Goff and Geno Smith as every-week starters and before you trade away Ezekiel Elliott and Najee Harris, consider the trends and expected regression I’ll discuss along with a lot more in this week’s start and sit column.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Quarterbacks
Start
Russell Wilson, Broncos vs. Colts (72 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 versus consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Russell Wilson has thrown just 4 touchdowns but has 7.36 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third-highest 3.36-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Cowboys (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 14th, +1 versus consensus (15th)
+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.9 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Efficiency: Stafford has thrown just 4 touchdowns but has 8.80 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 4.80-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.65 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Carson Wentz, Commanders vs. Titans (57 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 versus consensus (17th)
+ Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 3.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.80 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans at Commanders (57 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 versus consensus (18th)
+ Opponent: The Commanders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Sit
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Giants in London (61 degrees and cloudy)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 versus consensus (11th)
– Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Giants have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions at Patriots (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 versus consensus (14th)
– Efficiency: Jared Goff has thrown 11 touchdowns but has just 8.28 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third-highest 2.72-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Patriots have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Geno Smith, Seahawks at Saints (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 versus consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Running Backs
Start
Khalil Herbert, Bears at Vikings (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 15th, +2 versus consensus (17th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Khalil Herbert for 21.7 carries + targets this week assuming David Montgomery is out, seventh at his position (he averaged 21.7 carries + targets in Weeks 5-8 of 2021 and the last two weeks when Montgomery missed time).
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.54 per game in 2022, third most in football.
+ Opponent: Herbert has faced the third-hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
– Efficiency: Herbert ranks third at his position with 0.97 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Najee Harris, Steelers at Bills (49 degrees and cloudy)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 versus consensus (19th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Najee Harris for 20.9 carries + targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 17.3 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Harris has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.48 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.48-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Harris ranks 10th from last at his position with -0.74 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Damien Harris, Patriots vs. Lions (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 versus consensus (20th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 1.26 per game in 2022, by far the most in football.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots vs. Lions (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +2 versus consensus (24th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 1.26 per game in 2022, by far the most in football.
Breece Hall, Jets vs. Dolphins (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 versus consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Breece Hall for 18.1 carries + targets this week, 18th at his position (he has increased his snap share from 27% to 51% to 66% and increased his carries + targets from 8 to 19 to 23 over the last three weeks).
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys at Rams (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 27th, +2 versus consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Ezekiel Elliott for 16.0 carries + targets this week, tied for 23rd at his position (he has averaged 16.5 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: Elliott has faced the hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.37 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
– Efficiency: Elliott ranks tied for eighth from last at his position with -0.75 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at Jets (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +1 versus consensus (34th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 18.3 carries + targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 14.0 carries + targets vs. 7.7 for Chase Edmonds the last two weeks).
+ Efficiency: Mostert has just 1 explosive run on 39 carries (2.6%) but ranked second at his position with an 8.7% explosive run rate 2018-21 — he’s overdue for one.
+ Efficiency: Mostert has not scored a touchdown but has 1.34 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.34-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Deon Jackson, Colts at Broncos (72 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +18 versus consensus (61st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Deon Jackson for 11.1 carries + targets this week, 39th at his position (which stems from a 39.0% projected carry share vs. 37.5% for Phillip Lindsay and 12.5% for Nyheim Hines with Jonathan Taylor out).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Raiders (70 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 44th, +4 versus consensus (48th)
+ Volume: Pacheco ranks second at his position with 3.26 yards after contact per attempt in 2022 and should continue to see his role increase (he spiked from 5 snaps in both Weeks 2 and 3 to 17 snaps in Week 4).
Phillip Lindsay, Colts at Broncos (72 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 50th, +26 versus consensus (76th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Phillip Lindsay for 10.2 carries + targets this week, 42nd at his position (which stems from a 37.5% projected carry share vs. 39.0% for Deon Jackson and 12.5% for Nyheim Hines with Jonathan Taylor out).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Sit
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. Raiders (70 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 20th, -5 versus consensus (15th)
– Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 13.3 carries + targets this week, 35th at his position (he has averaged 13.8 carries + targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire has scored 5 touchdowns but has just 2.90 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.10-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks at Saints (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 30th, -2 versus consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, sixth most in football (as opposed to last week’s Lions that have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 1.26 per game, the most in football).
– Opponent: Penny has faced the third-easiest schedule of run defenses that on average have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.20 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons at Bucs (81 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 34th, -1 versus consensus (33rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Allgeier for 15.7 carries + targets this week, 25th at his position (which stems from a 42.5% projected carry share vs. 32.5% for Caleb Huntley with Cordarrelle Patterson out).
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Darrell Henderson, Rams vs. Cowboys (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 40th, -2 versus consensus (38th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.47 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Wide Receivers
Start
Chris Godwin, Bucs vs. Falcons (81 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 versus consensus (21st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chris Godwin for 9.5 targets this week, ninth at his position (he has averaged 9.5 targets in his most recent six games and returned from his knee injury to play 83% of snaps in Week 4).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders vs. Titans (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 versus consensus (25th)
+ Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 3.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.80 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders vs. Titans (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 versus consensus (27th)
+ Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 3.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.80 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Bears (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 31st, +2 versus consensus (33rd)
+ Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.77 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.77-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Dolphins (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +2 versus consensus (34th)
+ Efficiency: Garrett Wilson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.58 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 1.58-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, third most in football.
DJ Moore, Panthers vs. 49ers (69 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 36th, +1 versus consensus (37th)
+ Volume: I am projecting DJ Moore for 8.5 targets this week, tied for 20th at his position (he has averaged 7.3 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs vs. Raiders (70 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 45th, +6 versus consensus (51st)
+ Efficiency: Marquez Valdes-Scantling has not caught a touchdown but has 0.88 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.88-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals vs. Eagles (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 50th, +15 versus consensus (65th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Rondale Moore for 6.2 targets this week, tied for 42nd at his position (he and Greg Dortch have collectively averaged 7.0 targets in their slot starts in 2022).
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Chargers (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 66th, +2 versus consensus (68th)
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 1.37 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth-highest 1.37-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Sit
DK Metcalf, Seahawks at Saints (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 21st, -3 versus consensus (18th)
+ Efficiency: DK Metcalf has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.10 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks at Saints (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 28th, -2 versus consensus (26th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 29th, -1 versus consensus (28th)
– Volume: I am projecting DeVonta Smith for 6.6 targets this week, 39th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets in 2022).
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. Colts (72 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 37th, -7 versus consensus (30th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jerry Jeudy for 6.9 targets this week, tied for 36th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets in 2022).
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Panthers (69 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 38th, -2 versus consensus (36th)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.3 targets this week, tied for 40th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets the last two weeks with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback).
– Volume: Aiyuk has seen just six deep targets of more than 20 air yards in 2021 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, and only three of those have been catchable.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Tight Ends
Start
Gerald Everett, Chargers at Browns (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 versus consensus (11th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Gerald Everett for 6.6 targets this week, tied for fifth at his position (he has averaged 6.5 targets in 2022).
David Njoku, Browns vs. Chargers (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 versus consensus (12th)
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets vs. Dolphins (56 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 12th, +1 versus consensus (13th)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, third most in football.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have allowed 13.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, seventh most in football.
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys at Rams (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 14th, +3 versus consensus (17th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Dalton Schultz for 5.5 targets this week, tied for 10th at his position (he has averaged 6.2 targets in his most recent six games).
– Opponent: The Rams have allowed 4.0 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the fewest in football.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Titans (57 degrees and sunny)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 16th, +2 versus consensus (18th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Logan Thomas for 5.0 targets this week, 15th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets in 2022 and will have less competition for targets with Jahan Dotson expected to miss Week 5).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.80 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Sit
Dallas Goedert, Eagles at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 9th, -4 versus consensus (5th)
– Volume: I am projecting Dallas Goedert for 5.1 targets this week, 14th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 16.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Bills (59 degrees and cloudy)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 13th, -3 versus consensus (10th)
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.48 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 4.1 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second fewest in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers vs. Giants in London (61 degrees and cloudy)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 17th, -2 versus consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Giants have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts at Broncos (72 degrees and clear)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -1 versus consensus (21st)
– Efficiency: Mo Alie-Cox has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.97 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 1.03-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Will Dissly, Seahawks at Saints (Dome)
Week 5 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 versus consensus (23rd)
– Efficiency: Will Dissly has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 0.61 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.31-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
– Opponent: The Saints have allowed 4.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third fewest in football.
