Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With training camps open across the league, excitement is in the air and fantasy football drafts are starting to heat up. My fantasy football rankings can be found at FTN Fantasy. There are others who’ve contributed as well to help split the tie if there is one. They are updated daily so be sure to check in before your fantasy football drafts.
Below are my top 10 fantasy football running back rankings in a half-point setting for the 2021 season. I’ll dive a bit deeper in the days to come and I’ll hit on other positions as well. If you have any questions don’t be afraid to reach out @chrismeaney.
1. Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers
CMC is the consensus RB1 and first overall pick across the fantasy football industry. If you see him at two or three, it’s likely just click bait or someone trying to be different. Sure, Patrick Mahomes in a superflex could be considered with the first pick, and you could go elsewhere in a dynasty startup. I’ve seen him go first overall in a startup. I don’t hate it. It’s just not for me.
Christian McCaffrey averaged a league-high 27 fantasy points per game last season (three games) and 25 per game in 2019. He has 320 grabs in 51 career games (6.2 per game), including 225 in his last two full seasons (2018 & 2019). CMC has scored at least 23 fantasy points in 14 of his last 19 games and at least 19 fantasy points in 17 of his past 19 games. There aren’t many quarterbacks who consistently put up that kind of production in fantasy. He’s as consistent at the RB position as there is.
2. Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook has yet to play a full season in his four years in the NFL, but his 22.6 fantasy points per game last year ranked first among backs with at least four games played (CMC). His 19 points per game in 2019 was tied for second with Derrick Henry. Cook has racked up 29 rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons and he’s fresh off a career-high 5.0 yards per carry mark (4.7 for his career).
Cook also set career-highs in rushing yards (1,557) as well as total yards (1,918), and he did it in 14 games. The one thing we haven’t really seen from Cook are receiving touchdowns. He has three despite 148 career catches and 97 over the last two seasons (one rec TD). It’s hard to complain, though, as he has 3,572 total yards and 30 scores in the last two seasons. He had nine games with at least 22 carries, as he went from 250 attempts on the ground in 2019 to 312 in 2020. Owners should expect 350+ opportunities (targets + carries) again this season.
3. Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry was your RB2 in 2020 despite 19 catches for 114 yards. We know that’s not his game but wouldn’t you like to see a few more screens for Henry? Defenses have a hard enough time stopping him despite them knowing he’s getting the ball, and when he gets in the open space it’s game over. It’s a very minimal increase, but King Henry has seen an uptick in targets in each of his last four seasons. How many more touches can he handle? Henry has gone from 1,059 rushing yards in 2018, to 1,540 yards in 2019, to 2027 last season. He had 215 carries in 2018, 303 in 2019 and a ridiculous 378 in 2020. That’s 778 carries in the last two seasons, which includes four postseason games.
I don’t expect to see nearly 400 touches from Henry this season, but I do believe he has at least one more top-five finish in him at the RB position. The addition of Julio Jones and departure of Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator may mean fewer touches, but we could also see more efficiency with fewer stacked boxes. That should be considered a win for dynasty owners if they were unable to sell high.
4. Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara took the crown as the league’s top fantasy running back last season, as he set career-highs in yards (923), rushing touchdowns (16), targets (107), catches (83) and receiving yards (756). Kamara scored 21 total touchdowns in 2020, which was also a career high. A big part of his production since entering the league has been his ability to be a player in the passing game, as he’s caught at least 81 balls in each of his four seasons. The Saints’ back has 2,824 receiving yards and 3,340 rushing yards in 60 career games. He only had one 100-yard rushing game last season and has three in his career.
Before hearing Michael Thomas could be sidelined for the first seven weeks of the season, I thought we would see a decline in Kamara’s targets due to the departure of Drew Brees. That could still be the case, but Kamara’s target share moved from 19% with Thomas on the field to 25% with him inactive. That said, if it is Tayson Hill under center, it’s fair to expect fewer targets considering he averaged 4.0 per game with him compared to 8.3 with Brees. That’s a massive drop off, especially in PPR leagues, as Kamara averaged 29 fantasy points per game with Brees compared to 14 with Hill.
Fourteen fantasy points per game would put him in the RB2 conversation. Again, a small sample size, as Hill only started four games, but Latavius Murray was a big part of the offense with Hill under center as well. We’re not even sure yet if it’ll be Hill or Jameis Winston, who also doesn’t have a history of throwing to his running backs. He has a history of throwing to defensive backs and had two alpha wideouts to throw to as opposed to Peyton Barber, so I don’t think it’s fair to assume Kamara wouldn’t be part of the game plan regardless of the QB. And that’s another thing to think about. Without Thomas on the field, defenses will be locked into Kamara. There are so many moving pieces here but, at the end of the day, I think Kamara will get his touches but Hill will cap his upside. We at least have Hill’s final start in which he targeted Kamara 10 times. It’s the six targets in the first three starts which are discouraging.
5. Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys
I’m totally in on a bounce back for Ezekiel Elliott. He’s looking fresh and Dak Prescott looks healthy as well. Elliott averaged 72.8 rushing yards and 107.8 total yards with Prescott, compared to 61 rushing yards and 77.8 total yards without him. Five of Zeke’s six touchdowns and 24 of his 52 catches came in five games with Dak. He was the No. 3 running back in fantasy before Prescott’s injury. The offensive line is healthy and the Cowboys are going to be one of the league’s best offenses in the game. Yes, Tony Pollard is good but so is Zeke.
6. Saquon Barkley – New York Giants
Four weeks ago, I wasn’t really interested in Saquon Barkley, as he was getting drafted on average as the third running back off the board in NFFC leagues. Fast forward to July and Barkley is falling to the end of the first round and, in some high stakes leagues, he’s getting drafted in the second round. Now, that makes me intrigued. He’s the riskiest player in my top 10 running back rankings due to the fact he was limited to 13 games in 2019 and only played two games last season before suffering a torn ACL.
Reports out of Giants’ camp suggest New York may plan on being patient with Saquon and he could be limited or inactive in the first week of the season. That’s exactly why he’s falling down draft boards. Barkley has the upside to be a league winner if he can provide owners even 12-14 games. The offensive line has issues, the 91 catches as a rookie (mostly check-downs from Eli Manning) will likely go down as an outlier season, and there are plenty of passing options for Daniel Jones. I get the concerns on top of the injury risk, but 50+ grabs are likely, and he’s only a couple of seasons removed from racking up 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns. The ceiling is high and if he’s going to fall to the second, I think he’s worth the risk.
7. Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb was RB9 in a half point setting last season and RB11 in a PPR league (RB9 PPG) while only playing 12 games. He also only caught 16 passes in 2020. That just goes to show how productive Chubb was on the ground (5.6 YPC last season and 5.3 for his career), as he was able to rack up 1,067 yards despite missing four games. Can Chubb score 12 rushing touchdowns again? Absolutely he can. He’s arguably the best pure runner in the game behind the best offensive line in the game. The addition of Kevin Stefanski was a massive upgrade over Freddy Kitchens, and there’s no question Stefanski's mindset is better suited for Chubb’s game. Let’s also not rule out more catches for Chubb either, even with Kareem Hunt on the roster. Chubb caught 20 passes as a rookie and 36 in his sophomore season. It’s the best one-two-punch in the game but make no mistake, Chubb is the lead.
8. Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was RB19 over the first 10 games of the season, but he finished as the sixth best back in fantasy thanks to a soft schedule toward the end of his rookie year. I don’t want to take anything away from what Taylor did, but he faced Houston twice, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh down the stretch. All of those teams were among the worst at stopping the run. That said, Taylor is a strong running back behind a very solid offensive line.
The Colts did bring back Marlon Mack, and Nyheim Hines remains on the roster, so it’s not a lock Taylor will build off his 36 grabs and 39 targets. Colts coach Frank Reich has a history of spreading out some of the touches among his running backs, especially through the air, and Hynes finished inside the top four in catches among running backs. Taylor had one grab in his final two games and two or fewer in 10 of his last 13 games. I feel like I’m nit-picking a bit. I wouldn’t worry too much about Mack and Taylor really is a beast.
9. Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers
Now that Aaron Rodgers is locked into another season in Green Bay we can feel better about Aaron Jones. The Packers’ back finished as a top five running back last season as he racked up 1,000 yards on the ground for the second straight season. He’s churned out a 5.5 yards per carry mark in three of his four seasons and Jamaal Williams is off the roster.
The Packers spent a second round pick on A.J. Dillon in 2020 so they clearly like him and he’ll be in line for more work, but Jones will be a player in the passing game again this season and he has a nose for the end zone. Jones has 96 catches and 30 touchdowns in the past two seasons.
10. Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris is a perfect fit for Mike Tomlin’s offense. He’s a true three-down running back who is bound to touch the ball 18+ times. Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams and James Conner were all backs who finished as top five RBs in Tomlin’s offense.
There are questions about the Steelers’ offensive line, but they are getting healthy bodies back and added talent in the draft. Pittsburgh spent a first-round pick on Harris, and he’s a guy you can back on racking up 300+ touches, including 50+ grabs through the air. Keep in mind Ben Roethlisberger has lost a lot of zip on the ball and he’s fresh off leading the league in passing attempts per game (40.5). Pittsburgh’s GM Kevin Colbert says Harris is ready to be a three-down back in year one and they’d be disappointed if he wasn’t. I’d agree.
