Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Devin Singletary)
Fantasy Football Value 2021 – Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary is fresh off a season where he was fantasy football’s RB31 in PPR scoring. He did this in what was basically a 50/50 split with rookie Zack Moss. From a touchdown standpoint, Singletary wasn’t able to bring a whole lot to the table. He turned his 194 total touches into just two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Moss missed some time during the season and was still able to score five times. It also doesn’t do Singletary a whole lot of favors having Josh Allen as his quarterback. When the Bills get down near the goal line, Allen is almost a lock for six, regardless of who is in the backfield. In Allen’s first three seasons in the NFL, he’s had at least eight rushing touchdowns in each. Thankfully, Singletary was able to show life in the passing game, totaling 38 receptions in 2020. While we can’t expect the touchdowns to be there, he does provide a nice floor in PPR.
(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)
Through the first two weeks of the preseason, Singletary looks to have the upper hand on Moss. In Adam Pfeifer’s latest piece looking at value following the second week of preseason, he highlights Singletary’s strong performances through the first two weeks. In the most recent game, we saw Singletary get the start and play the first two series despite Moss being active. In fact, Moss didn’t see a snap until the third series. Singletary took advantage early against the Bears, taking his second carry of the game for a 14-yard touchdown. He turned his three touches into 26 yards and a score. We all know that the Bills are going to have a committee at running back, but it’s worth noting the value that is available if Singletary were to take over this backfield.
Looking at the FTN Fantasy NFL snaps report, Singletary saw a majority of the snaps throughout the course of the season. There were a total of 13 games in which both Singletary and Moss were on the field together. In these 13 games, Moss was able to outsnap Singletary six times. When you see the numbers side by side in the snap report, every game was split pretty evenly, especially toward the end of the year. In the final three games of the season, the two running backs basically mirrored each other’s snap counts. Assuming both stay healthy, we should expect to see a similar snap share moving forward. The one concern regarding Moss, would be the hamstring injury he was dealing with earlier this offseason. Having Moss suit up and see some time in the second preseason game was promising. It’ll be a situation to monitor early in the season.
Singletary did show up in the explosive run rate tool on FTN Fantasy. His nine rush attempts that went for at least 15 yards tied for 12th among running backs. Nearly 29% of his total rushing yards came from these types of runs.
Using the FTN air yards tool, Singletary got off to an extremely hot start in terms of receiving. Through the first four weeks of the season, he totaled 16 receptions on 21 targets. Comparing this to all other running backs during this stretch, only five (Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, Austin Ekeler) had more receptions. Singletary only had five air yards on these 21 targets but was able to make things happen when the ball was in his hands. He had 133 yards after the catch, which is just over eight yards per reception. The good news for Singletary, is that Moss wasn’t used a whole in the passing game. Moss totaled just 14 receptions, which was a target-share of 5% on the season compared to Singletary’s 9.31%. If Allen is going to vulture the touchdowns near the goal line, give me the Bills running back with the PPR upside: Devin Singletary
Fantasy Football ADP Stock Watch – Devin Singletary
Using the FTN Fantasy ADP tool, Singletary is currently being drafted as the RB45. His ADP of 127.87 places him right in the middle of the 11th round in drafts. Other running backs currently being selected in this range include Jamaal Williams, Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray and Alexander Mattison. Know what all of these running backs have in common? They’re all handcuffs or the clear No. 2 option in their respective offenses. Sure, Moss is present, but the point is that none of these running backs in this range offer the type of floor that Singletary does. Even with Moss active, Singletary is still a player that you can start from week to week and/or use as a filler on bye weeks. This 11th-round price tag is an extreme value for a player who will see over 50% of his backfields snaps nearly every week.
His strong preseason is causing this ADP to slowly rise. Back in June, Singletary had an ADP of 141.46. It ended up moving almost two spots in July, where we saw it settle down at 139.93. However, this month is where we saw the biggest spike for Singletary. His August ADP is sitting at 127.87. That rise of 12 spots from July to August was the sixth highest jump of all running backs being selected in the top 130.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
NFL Fantasy Football Ranking – Devin Singletary
The FTN Fantasy PPR rankings currently have Singletary as the consensus RB42. This ranking lines up right with his ADP mentioned above, of RB45. Again, I currently have the highest rank among FTN analysts, with Singletary at my RB34. Kyle Murray is the only other analyst who has him ranked in the 30s (RB36). Off a strong preseason, it’s hard to see him push inside the top 35. Moss scares people off, and rightfully so. Singletary remains one of my favorite targets later in drafts.
