Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Ladies and gentlemen, we have landing spots.
The NFL Draft is now in the rearview mirror, which means we finally have rookies on NFL teams. Here at FTN Fantasy, we compiled a pre-draft rookie mock, and once the draft was over, the same drafters participated in one more mock.
Let’s take a look at some of the differences and see what stands out.
Note: This is a 1QB draft, but even if this was a Superflex draft, we probably would only see one quarterback (Kenny Pickett) drafted in the first two rounds.
The Wide Receivers
It’s no secret this draft class wasn’t exactly the strongest when it came to the quarterback or running back positions. We saw six wideouts go off the board in the first round of the NFL draft, while eight receivers were drafted in the first round of this rookie mock. Treylon Burks and Drake London are both viewed as the top two rookie receivers heading into the 2022 season, and it makes total sense. London lands on a bad offense in Atlanta that has Olamide Zaccheaus as the No. 2 wide receiver, while Burks is essentially filling the A.J. Brown role in Tennessee after the star wideout was traded to Philadelphia on draft night. Interestingly enough, Burks drew plenty of Brown comparisons during the draft process. Both players are around 225 pounds and just over 6’0” and possess tremendous after-the-catch ability. Burks averaged 9.3 yards after the catch per reception last year, the sixth-most in college football, while 219 of his receiving yards came off screens (13th). After a report that the Titans are going to “force feed” touches to Burks, it isn’t difficult to see why he was the WR1 in this draft and the second overall selection.
After landing in Kansas City and Green Bay during the second round of the draft, both Skyy Moore and Christian Watson have climbed up rookie draft boards. Moore was selected at the 1.07 with Watson at the 1.09, and most drafters probably have both receivers ahead of someone like Jahan Dotson, despite the first-round draft capital. Dotson landed in Washington, and while the upside isn’t quite as high, he still shouldn’t fall to the 2.02 in rookie drafts, which is a tremendous value. We saw him operate as the clear alpha on a poor Penn State offense and he’s extremely sure-handed, sporting a drop rate of around 5% for his career. Terry McLaurin is still going to lead the Commanders in targets, but it isn’t out of the range of outcomes that Washington trades him if contract talks stall. Meanwhile, the Saints traded three draft picks to move up to the No. 11 spot to select Chris Olave, and while he didn’t land in the most appealing spot, the 1.10 is pretty strong value for him. Olave is as NFL ready as it comes, and suddenly we are seeing reports that Michael Thomas still has a few hurdles in regards to his rehab. Olave may not break many tackles, but he’s an extremely polished route-runner who also wins down the field, as he led all college receivers in receptions, yards and touchdowns on targets 20 yards or more down the field since 2019. If Thomas misses any additional time, Olave could lead all rookie receivers in catches, especially in a concentrated Saints offense.
The Running Backs
In most rookie drafts, three running backs will be selected in the first round; Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker and James Cook. In this draft, Isaiah Spiller was also a first-rounder, and while the landing spot is intriguing, Austin Ekeler is still the clear lead back in Los Angeles. Sure, this draft class at running back isn’t the greatest, but there are some intriguing players to target late in drafts. Keaontay Ingram could easily enter the season as the backup to James Conner in Arizona. Although Conner was an elite fantasy running back last year, it was mostly due to volume. He only had 15 runs of 10-plus yards, while his 4.7 yards per touch ranked 27th among all running backs. Meanwhile, Tyrion Davis-Price lands in San Francisco, a team that has had a different leading rusher for each of the past five seasons and always uses multiple running backs. Third-round draft capital is pretty noteworthy. Finally, one day after declining the fifth-year option on Josh Jacobs, the Raiders traded up to select Zamir White, who could easily get touches right away or be Las Vegas’ lead back in 2023.
Top Values
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans (2.04)
Dameon Pierce wasn’t drafted until the fourth round but landed in one of the most advantageous offenses for running backs. He’ll compete with Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead for the starting job. Although the Texans are one of the worst offenses in football, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. In fact, from Weeks 11-18 of last season, Burkhead operated as the lead back, averaging nearly 17 touches per game. He was RB20 during that span. Lovie Smith is in town and has stated he wants to run the football. While Pierce didn’t see a full workload during his time at Florida, that doesn’t mean he can’t take on a workhorse role in the NFL. At 5’10”, 218 pounds, Pierce has solid size and is one of the most natural pass-catchers in this class. He should have easily been drafted ahead of Isaiah Spiller, who went too high in this draft.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons (3.01)
Like Pierce, Tyler Allgeier landed on a team where he will have every opportunity to earn the starting job, especially after the Falcons released veteran Mike Davis. Allgeier is a really good fit for this offense, as his 213 rushing attempts out of zone schemes last year were the fourth-most in college football, while Atlanta runs a ton of zone running schemes. Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 216 rushing attempts out of zone, which would have led the entire NFL. Over 74% of both players’ carries came out of zone. Allgeier finished second in the nation in yards after contact last season and likely operates as the early-down back over Patterson, especially given his 5’11”, 224-pound frame. You don’t love the fact that he was selected in the fifth round of the NFL draft, but the Falcons also didn’t have a fourth-rounder. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he led this team in carries by Week 4 or 5.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys (3.06)
Sure, I made this selection, but I was thrilled that Jalen Tolbert was still available in the middle of the third round. He may have played at small-school South Alabama, but he dominated, sporting a college target share of over 33%. After only playing five games during his freshman season, Tolbert broke out during his sophomore season in 2019, hauling in six touchdowns on just 26 receptions. He was seventh in college football in deep receiving yards last season (646) and now lands with the Cowboys, who will be without Michael Gallup to start the season, while also needing to replace the 165 combined targets left behind by Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson.
