Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (5/31)

With fantasy football drafts heating up this summer, we are finally starting to see shifts in average draft position. Most drafts right now are of the best ball variety, but it helps give us a good idea of who is going where in drafts, as well as who is on the rise and who is falling.

Let’s take a look at some ADP updates as we close the month of May.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

FFPC ADP: WR15

The hype has been rising around Michael Pittman, who is now coming off draft boards as a top-17 wide receiver. That has him being selected around the third round of fantasy drafts, and I don’t see an issue with it. To me, there is a bit of a tier drop after Keenan Allen, and Pittman is the start of that next tier. Volume should very much be on Pittman’s side once again in 2022, which was the case in 2021. In fact, Pittman was responsible for 27% of Indianapolis’ receptions this past season, the third-highest rate among all receivers. Only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams were ahead of him in that department, and they were the clear top targets in the NFL last year. Entering his third season, Pittman’s only real competition for targets are a rookie in Alec Pierce; Parris Campbell, who has had trouble staying on the field; and Nyheim Hines. Meanwhile, the quarterback play should be better with Matt Ryan under center — he has heavily targeted his top receiver over the course of his career. Pittman has legitimate top-10 fantasy upside heading into Year Three, which is often when wide receivers really burst onto the scene.

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FFPC ADP: QB16

As of right now, Trey Lance is being drafted as the QB16 on FFPC. However, that number will likely climb to 10th or so the second Jimmy Garoppolo is moved (assuming that happens), and it could climb regardless. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan recently said that he expects at some time that Garoppolo will be traded, so that news blurb alone could bump Lance’s ADP. We saw a three-game stretch last season where Lance played meaningful snaps and there was serious fantasy potential there. During those games, Lance averaged 10.3 rushing attempts per game, while 19 of his 31 rushing attempts were designed. He averaged 0.64 fantasy points per dropback in that three-game sample, a number that would have led the league among qualified quarterbacks last season. And with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk catching passes, all Lance will have to do is put the ball in the hands of his stellar playmakers and let them do the rest. 

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

FFPC ADP: TE21

After the top seven or eight tight ends, you are simply looking for upside. And the more I look at it, the more I realize David Njoku has boatloads of upside. The Browns have finally shown their commitment to the uber-talented tight end, recently giving him a four-year, $56.8 million extension. Austin Hooper is gone, which should lead to way fewer three tight end sets from the Browns this year. Last season, the Browns operated out of 13 personnel (three tight ends) a league-leading 17% of the time. A drop in 13 personnel should help Njoku play more out of the slot, an area he operated out of just over 31% of the time last season. It is entirely possible that Njoku is the second option in this passing game behind Amari Cooper and new quarterback Deshaun Watson could be looking his way quite a bit, especially in the red zone. During his final three seasons with the Texans, tight ends accounted for nearly 24% of the passing touchdowns from Watson. He is quickly emerging as one of my top late-round tight ends for 2022.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

FFPC ADP: WR13

Jaylen Waddle is coming off an historic rookie campaign, setting the rookie record for receptions in a season (104). He is going to be an outstanding receiver for years to come — but an ADP of WR13 is simply too high. His usage during his rookie season was a bit different. His aDOT in college was 11.7 yards, but as the clear top option in the passing game in Miami in 2021, that number fell to 6.92, the 12th-lowest mark among all receivers with at least 50 targets. Of course, the volume was great, as Waddle saw a 24.8% target share, while his 124 targets as the first read were the ninth-most among all receivers. Heading into 2022, that volume will take a hit with Tyreek Hill in town. Waddle isn’t even a top-20 wide receiver for me in 2022, let alone top-15. Per our FTN Fantasy rankings, Waddle is lower than ADP, currently WR17.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders

FFPC ADP: RB22

The Commanders brought back J.D. McKissic in free agency then drafted Brian Robinson in the third round of the draft. Between that and Ron Rivera’s comments comparing Antonio Gibson and Robinson to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina, Gibson’s ADP continues to drop, as he is currently outside of the top-20 running backs. Then there was a report that Gibson’s touches could vary by week. Washington has underutilized Gibson to start his NFL career so nothing that they have done this offseason should be viewed as a positive. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this ADP drop even more going forward, especially once the preseason starts.