Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (4/27)

Over the course of the offseason, fantasy football average draft positions are going to continue to change. So every few weeks here at FTN Fantasy, we will take a look at what stands out. And with the NFL Draft just a little over a day away, so much more is going to change, so let’s get a framework in place now so we can see what changes the most after the draft.

Let’s take a look at what is catching my eye before the NFL Draft.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

FFPC ADP: RB35

Miles Sanders was a fantasy disappointment last season, but most of it was due to the fact that he somehow failed to find the end zone on 163 touches. During his three seasons in the NFL, Sanders has shown some serious flashes. He has been extremely efficient during his NFL career, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, while ranking seventh, 13th and 15th in yards per touch. He’s truly been one of the best running backs in football when it comes to ripping off long runs. In 2021, 35% of Sanders’ rushing attempts went for 15 yards or more, good for the sixth-best rate among qualified running backs. And in 2020 and 2019, Sanders ranked 11th and ninth in breakaway run rate. So the talent is clearly there. 

Last year was just ridiculous in the (un)luck department, and he is clearly due for positive touchdown regression. Quarterback Jalen Hurts led the team with 13 carries inside the 5-yard line, the seventh most in all of football. Sanders only saw five such carries. He missed five games last season, but when he was healthy, especially during the second half of the season, the Eagles finally committed to him as the lead back. In Weeks 1-7, Sanders only averaged nine carries per game, as the Eagles were insanely pass-heavy during that stretch, calling pass over 61% of the time. However, during Weeks 11-16, Sanders averaged 15 rushing attempts per game, and that was while leaving both Weeks 12 and 16 early with injuries, logging 30 and 33% of the snaps. From Week 8 on last year, Philadelphia called run at the highest rate in football (59.1%).

Entering 2022, Sanders is still in a very appealing spot. He’s just 25 years old and plays in arguably the most run-heavy offense in football that still features an elite run-blocking offensive line. In 2021, the Eagles offensive line generated 2.22 yards before contact per attempt, the highest mark in the NFL. And individually, Sanders averaged 3.4 yards before contact per rush, the second-best rate among all running backs. RB35 is too low for me, especially if the usage he was starting to see before suffering an injury carries over into the 2022 campaign. 

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders

FFPC ADP: RB14

Antonio Gibson is a popular player in the fantasy community, but it is entirely possible that RB14 could be too high for the third-year running back. For starters, Washington brought back J.D. McKissic, who is not only one of the best pass-catching backs in the league but also one of the best when it comes to picking up blitzes and pass-protecting. Secondly, Washington has visited multiple running backs leading up to the NFL Draft, so if they draft someone in the first three rounds, that could be really, really bad for Gibson. I’ll obviously feel a lot better about Gibson if Washington doesn’t address the running back position, but I’d still prefer players like Leonard Fournette, James Conner and David Montgomery in 2022.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

FFPC ADP: WR14

In my rankings at FTN Fantasy, I have Jaylen Waddle outside of the top-25 wide receivers, so it is pretty obvious that WR14 is far too high for my liking. Waddle was a target machine during his rookie season, ranking 10th among all receivers in targets (142), while his 124 first-read targets were good for ninth-most in the league. That is going to change with Tyreek Hill joining the Dolphins — he is going to get a ton of manufactured targets, especially with new head coach Mike McDaniel calling plays. And because Waddle didn’t see much work down the field, a significant drop in volume could really limit his fantasy upside. Last season, just three percent of Waddle’s targets came 20 yards or more down the field, while his 5.5 yards before the catch per reception was the 13th-lowest mark among qualified wide receivers. Waddle is still likely to present a solid floor and isn’t likely to be a bust in fantasy… unless that ADP holds up.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans

FFPC ADP: WR33

Brandin Cooks will remain with the Texans despite some offseason trade rumors. Houston has plenty of draft picks and will likely add a receiver at some point, but it won’t be enough to keep Cooks from seeing some elite volume like last season. In 2021, Cooks saw a 25% target share (top-10), while also seeing 37% of Houston’s air yards (sixth) and 28% of the first read targets. He also saw at least 25% of the team’s targets in seven different games this past season. And while his quarterback situation certainly isn’t the greatest in football, Davis Mills was fine last year. And in 12 games alongside Mills last year, Cooks still averaged nearly nine targets, 6.1 receptions, 65.5 yards and over 15 PPR points per game. Cooks is currently a top-24 fantasy wide receiver for me, which makes him a screaming value at WR33.