Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camp is underway for some teams in the NFL, and by this time next week, every team will be in camp. The good news is there’s still plenty of time to get some player prop futures wagers in play. With the most recent betting markets available, here are four NFL player prop futures bets I’m making right now.
DeVonta Smith player props
OVER 775.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s tough to project rookies in the NFL, especially when they happened to be playing under a first-time head coach along with an unproven quarterback. However, we do know what DeVonta Smith is capable of on the football field following his standout 2020 season at Alabama. He was the most dominant wideout in college football, displaying a versatile game in the process. Smith wasn’t a downfield dynamo, with an aDOT of just 10.7 yards, but his ability to get open all over the field and create yards after catch (8.1 YAC last season) bode well for immediate success in the NFL.
However, this wager is all about opportunity. Smith landed on a very thin Eagles depth chart and should ascend to the top target in short order. Sure, detractors will knock him because of his slight frame, but he has a mean streak in him that allows him to punch well above his weight class. If Smith manages to hit triple digit targets, like he’s currently projecting to do in our fantasy football projections, he’s going to blow by this line by a healthy margin.
D’Andre Swift player props
UNDER 850.5 rushing yards (-112, BetAmerica Sportsbook)
This one isn’t as much a bet against D’Andre Swift as it a bet for Anthony Lynn keeping his word. Lynn, who is now the Lions offensive coordinator, describe Swift as a change-of-pace back, while at the same time characterizing Jamaal Williams as his classic A-back. Translation: Lynn wants to use Williams as his primary early-down back.
Now, the cream tends to rise in the NFL, and I don’t expect this arrangement to last through the whole season. But Swift could end up on the short end of the carry share for a good chunk of the first half of the year. We saw something similar last year when he averaged just 5.9 carries per game over the first eight weeks of the season. To be fair, he posted a healthy 4.57 yards per carry, but that means he’d need roughly 185 carries to top this line with a similar rate this year. With Williams in the mix, that doesn’t seem likely for Swift, much to the chagrin of the fantasy football crowd.
Deebo Samuel player props
UNDER 850.5 receiving yards (+100, BetAmerica Sportsbook)
Unlike the first two lines on this list, this one isn’t too far off. However, the under is very much in play, especially because we’re getting even money to do so. Samuel is poised to take another step forward this year along with Brandon Aiyuk in the 49ers offense, and both young wideouts stand to benefit from when Trey Lance inevitably takes over at quarterback. Given this bullish outlook, this line might seem a tad low, but we do need to consider both the 49ers offensive philosophy and their target pecking order.
San Francisco did trade up to select Lance at No. 3 overall in April’s draft, but they also attacked the running back position, drafting Trey Sermon on Day 2 and Elijah Mitchell on Day 3. It doesn’t take much reading between the lines to realize what they’re trying to do, especially given Lance’s high-end ability as a runner, and some in the media have suggested the 49ers want to run the ball 500 times this season. That many rushing attempts takes meat off the bone in the passing game.
Add to that the fact that Samuel could very likely be behind both George Kittle and Aiyuk in target shares, and we now have a tough path for him to get over this line. To be fair, Samuel should still see in the range of 18% of the team’s targets, but that likely won’t be enough to get him to triple digits. Samuel has been an extremely low-aDOT receiver as a pro with averages of 2.2 yards last season and 7.6 the year before. While he is excellent after the catch, his low aDOT puts a cap on his overall yardage potential. Simply put, without more volume, it’ll be very difficult for Samuel to approach this line. Setting this one at 800.5 would be a much tougher wager to place.
Mike Davis player props
OVER 775.5 rushing yards (-111, BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Falcons made their intentions clear when they did not select a running back in April’s draft. Davis is going to be their lead back. Veteran Qadree Ollison is behind him on the depth chart along with Tony Brooks-James, hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie UDFAs Javien Hawkins and Caleb Huntley. With essentially no competition for touches, 200-plus carries are very much in the mix for Davis this season.
To be far, Davis has not proven to be a world-beater on the ground in his six professional seasons. He averages a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry for his career and is coming off a 2020 campaign where he managed 3.9 yards per tote. But even at that lackluster rate, he’d need just 199 carries to top this line. New Falcons head coach Arthur Smith comes from Tennessee, where he was instrumental in Derrick Henry’s ascendence over the last two seasons. While Davis is far from Henry, he’s going to get the opportunity to run the rock in 2021. My current fantasy football projections have him with 231 carries, which means he’d need to average just 3.36 yards per carry to top this line. Smash the over on this line.
