Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Training camps provide our first look into NFL players and teams as we prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season. Information will now begin to flood our social media timelines, leaving us to determine the subsequent fantasy impact. It’s a matter of knowing which information matters, and which should be ignored.
So each day in this space, we’ll take a trip through the top news and takeaways around the league’s training camps to offer up what fantasy managers need to know as we head through draft season and into the 2023 NFL regular season.
Today, let’s review the major news from the weekend, July 28-30.
Roller Coaster at Colts Camp
The headline news of the weekend was a meeting between Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay and star running back Jonathan Taylor that led to Taylor officially requesting a trade.
The lack of financial support for running backs has been a lead story throughout the offseason, and Irsay’s response to Taylor’s comments seems to indicate the Colts will call Taylor’s bluff. Late Sunday night, a report circulated that Taylor complained of back pain when he first reported to camp, a story the running back later refuted on social media. Stay tuned.
On a positive note, rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson’s arm has already provided hope for the short- and long-term future of the Colts.
The Florida product has already earned first-team reps as he competes with veteran Gardner Minshew for the team’s QB1 job.
Dalton Kincaid’s Atypical Usage
Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has been the biggest story in Buffalo training camp. From Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic:
As the passing offense has started to establish itself at training camp, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has remained a significant component of the Allen-led attack. Allen has consistently targeted Kincaid every practice, continuing their chemistry from the end of spring workouts. If the Bills were afraid of putting too much on Kincaid’s plate as a rookie, their actions don’t indicate that for how often he has worked with the Allen-led offense through the first three practices.
Buscaglia noted that Kincaid has struggled with pass protection but could see a huge role in a passing game that is in desperate need of a secondary option to All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs.
Unless Gabe Davis can recover from a massively disappointing season, Kincaid could break the mold of minimal contributions during a tight end’s rookie season.
James Cook 3-Down RB?
Another huge positive out of Bills camp has been the growing confidence in last year’s second-round pick, running back James Cook.
The headline of this article by Bills reporter Matt Parrino says it all. Cook developed into a versatile weapon for the Bills last season, catching 14 passes over the last six regular-season games. Factor in a 5.7 yards per carry average on his limited rushing attempts (89), and you have a player who appears to be a screaming value at his current RB31 ADP on UnderdogFantasy.
Mack Hollins Momentum?
It’s always important to avoid overreacting to social media posts, but Mack Hollins continues to generate massive buzz in Falcons training camp.
While Hollins is still listed behind dynamic second-year wideout Drake London on the Atlanta depth chart, it’s possible the 29-year-old veteran could find fantasy relevance early in the season. Kyle Pitts is still recovering from MCL surgery, and Hollins is coming off a career-best 57 receptions and 690 receiving yards with the Raiders last season. Even Hollins’ eating habits are garnering national attention.
Mac Jones Finding Hunter Henry
Reports out of New England’s camp indicate a strong connection between quarterback Mac Jones and tight end Hunter Henry. Evan Lazar from Patriots.com raved about Henry after Saturday’s practice, creating separation with newly-acquired Mike Gesicki.
Henry posted nine touchdowns on just 50 receptions in 2021 and has averaged over 12 yards per reception over the last two seasons. Henry is currently being drafted as TE32 on UnderdogFantasy, a mind-blowing 11 spots after Gesicki (TE23).
Mike Williams = Slot Receiver?
The Chargers first-round selection of TCU’s Quentin Johnston secured an explosive third receiving option for quarterback Justin Herbert. That has also led to the surprise of Chargers camp: Mike Williams operating as a slot receiver.
Per The Athletic’s Daniel Popper, the Chargers are aligning Williams closer to the ball in different packages, providing Herbert with a massive target in the middle of the field. Popper notes that Williams played only 13.4% of the time in the slot during the past two seasons. However, per FTN Data, Herbert’s aDOT was only 6.42 yards per attempt, third-lowest among all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. By moving to the slot more often, Williams will see a huge increase in opportunities for fantasy production.
Dameon Pierce: Texans offensive focal point?
Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reported that Bobby Slowik’s Texans offense will certainly be “run first.” Head coach DeMeco Ryans told Alexander, “For us to be a good offense, we have to have Dameon at his A-game. He looks great and in shape. Every time he touches the ball, you see the speed and physicality.” That’s great news for Pierce drafters, who can still select the Texans RB at RB22 on UnderdogFantasy.
Even with the offseason signing of former Bills RB Devin Singletary, early signs have Pierce ready for a huge part of this Texans offense.
Dalvin Cook & Ezekiel Elliott Update
A plethora of veteran running backs remain free agents, but both Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott are inching closer to finding a home for the 2023 season. Cook was given a hero’s welcome by Jets fans, who are hoping the All-Pro back joins a roster that is laser-focused on a Super Bowl run.
All reports have Elliott in excellent shape, and he was seen having dinner with Patriots quarterback Mac Jones.
No news yet from either player, but there certainly appears to be an update coming soon for these two talented rushers.
Seahawks Running Back Injuries
On Sunday, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll reported that Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are dealing with injuries. Walker missed a few practices with a groin injury, while Charbonnet is out “indefinitely” with a shoulder problem. That leaves veteran DeeJay Dallas and seventh-round Georgia product Kenny McIntosh as the only healthy running backs.
