Fantasy Crossroads Revisited: The Biggest Draft-Day Conundrums of 2024 and What We Learned

When it comes to fantasy football analysis, it is exciting to see what you got right at the end of the season.

However, it is more important to see what you got wrong.

It is a very important part of the process to see why things went a certain way for players over the course of the season and a great way for me to do just that is to revisit my Fantasy Crossroads series from the summer. Each article featured two players, and I’d make an argument for and against both players, ultimately choosing one to draft in fantasy leagues. Let’s see how those matchups played out during the 2024-25 season.

Fantasy Crossroads Revisited

Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Garrett Wilson

The Pick: Wilson

Our series kicked off with a matchup between two exciting, young wide receivers. Despite my excitement for Harrison entering the league, I went with Wilson because we had already seen glimpses of greatness, despite having to overcome poor quarterback play. The idea of Aaron Rodgers throwing Wilson 150 passes all year was too difficult to pass on. Entering this season, only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb saw more targets since 2022 than Wilson’s 315, and his 135 first-read targets in 2023 were the fourth most. Of course, we projected a ton of volume to go Harrison’s way as a rookie, but Wilson, especially alongside Rodgers, just felt a bit safer in the second round of fantasy drafts.

The Answer: Wilson

After Week 1, it looked like Wilson was in line for a huge season, easily a career high. During his first career game with Rodgers throwing him the football, Wilson saw 11 targets, good for a 37% target share and a 47% first-read target share. Through the first six weeks of the season, Wilson averaged 11 targets and 16.6 PPR points per game. The results weren’t the greatest on a week-to-week basis, but Wilson was once again in line for elite volume and a top-12 fantasy season. But once Davante Adams requested a trade from the Raiders, everyone knew what was going to happen next.

The Rodgers/Adams reunion surprised no one.

Adams made his Jets debut in Week 6 — from then on, Wilson was very inconsistent. Wilson’s targets per game fell to 7.9 once Adams joined the team, sporting a 23.7% target share and 17% red zone target share. Adams, meanwhile, accounted for a whopping 34.4% of the red zone targets, averaging nearly 11 targets per game. He fell to the WR26 in fantasy points per game during that span (WR13 before the Adams trade). By the end of the year, Wilson was the WR10 in total points and WR21 in points per game, though he did rank outside the top 40 wideouts in fantasy points per route run. It was an overall somewhat disappointing year from Wilson, though if you drafted Harrison in the second round, you would have loved that production.

After having the highest ADP from a rookie wide receiver ever, Harrison finished with 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns. MHJ ended his rookie year as the WR30 (WR42 in PPG). While he clearly has to improve, the Cardinals also didn’t do him any favors with his utilization. One of the most nuanced wide receiver prospects in years, Harrison can do it all. But for whatever reason, Arizona asked him to run vertical routes down the sideline far too often. He had 22 targets off go routes, 19% of his total targets, and his 92.1 air yards per game were the 10^th most. He lined up out wide over 70% of the time and only saw one target out of pre-snap motion all year long. And because there wasn’t much creativity in his usage, Harrison posted a 46.6% tight coverage rate, the fifth highest among all wideouts. He also had just 18 targets all season long with three-plus yards of separation. Brighter days (and superstardom) should be ahead for Harrison, but the Cardinals have to generate some layups for him, rather than relying on him to hit 30-foot threes consistently.

Jonathan Taylor vs. Saquon Barkley

The Pick: Taylor

This was one of the toughest calls of the year for me. Taylor, an elite running back with absurd volume but question marks surrounding the offense? Or Barkley, an All-Pro talent set for a massive upgrade in Philadelphia?

Ultimately, I chose Taylor due to the threat of the tush push, which, looking back on it, was rather unwise. In 2023, Jalen Hurts had 16 carries inside the 5-yard line, sixth in football. He handled over 53% of the Eagles’ carries from that area of the field, which wasn’t just the highest rate among quarterbacks, but the 16th-highest rate among all players.

The Answer: Barkley

What’s the best way to avoid the tush push? Simply score from 20-plus yards out, of course.

Barkley wasn’t just the clear choice over Taylor, he was the overall RB1 in all of fantasy football, averaging over 22 points per game. He led the league with nine explosive touchdown runs, as his talent and Philadelphia’s run-blocking unit were a match made in heaven. Once Barkley landed in Philadelphia, the runway was wide open, as he averaged a whopping 3.0 yards before contact per carry, the most among running backs. Meanwhile, just 17.1% of his carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. During his final season with the Giants, Barkley averaged 1.4 yards before contact per attempt, while being stuffed 25% of the time. Hurts still had 18 carries from inside the five-yard line (3rd-most) but it didn’t slow Barkley down 35% of one bit, as he became just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards. Taylor, meanwhile, had a good season (1,431 yards, 12 TDs) and really turned it on in the fantasy playoffs, averaging 31.7 carries, 173.3 rushing yards and 30.8 PPR points per game. But it wasn’t enough to catch Barkley.

Anthony Richardson vs. C.J. Stroud

The Pick: Richardson

With both Stroud and Richardson coming off draft boards right next to each other, it made sense to go with the player with more upside. And to me, that was easily Richardson, who showcased some of that upside before his rookie season prematurely ended in 2023. Although it was only 98 total dropbacks, Richardson did enough to prove he could be a fantasy star. In Weeks 1-5 last year, Richardson played the majority of the snaps just twice, finishing as the QB4 and QB2 in those games. And in Weeks 2 and 5 when he left early, Richardson was on pace for top-10 finishes again, especially Week 2 where he scored nearly 18 fantasy points in just a half of work. During his shortened rookie campaign, Richardson averaged 0.73 fantasy points per dropback, as well as 6.3 rush attempts and 34 rushing yards per contest. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line, handling 18% of the Colts’ carries from that area of the field.

The Answer: Stroud

Neither quarterback truly won this matchup, as Stroud was a massive bust, while Richardson only played 11 games. Between injury and benching, Richardson didn’t play enough to match Stroud, despite how poor the production was. Stroud ranked 32nd among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.40), though the situation wasn’t the most ideal. Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Nico Collins all missed time due to injury, the offensive line was poor, and the playcalling didn’t help matters. Because Bobby Slowik loved to run the ball on early downs, Stroud had 97 pass attempts on third and long, the second most in football. He was also under pressure on 35% of dropbacks, a top five rate in football.

Evan Engram vs. Dalton Kincaid

The Pick: Kincaid

Kincaid was one of the most exciting players in fantasy to me this offseason. A talented sophomore tight end in line for more targets from one of the best quarterbacks in the league? Sign me up. In 2023, Kincaid posted a 22.6% target share with Stefon Diggs off the field, so going into 2024 with Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, I was all in.

The Answer: Engram

Unfortunately, Kincaid was a pretty large bust in fantasy, finishing as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. No player really dominated targets in Buffalo’s “everybody eats” offense, as Kincaid only posted a 15% target share. Engram, meanwhile, didn’t wow anyone, but was 13th in fantasy points per game, though there was virtually no ceiling. He was under 50 receiving yards in all but one game this year, while seeing just five red zone targets all season long.

Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase

The Pick: Chase

I was very vocal about Chase being my No. 2 overall player in fantasy football this offseason. Between the uncertainty at quarterback for Minnesota and the upside of Chase playing a full season alongside Joe Burrow, Cincinnati’s All-Pro got the edge for me. Last season, he averaged over 24 fantasy points per game once Burrow was fully healthy in Weeks 5-10, averaging 8.0 catches, 11.0 targets and 107.4 receiving yards per game.

The Answer: Chase

One of my best calls of the season, Chase dominated in 2024, taking home the Triple Crown with a stat line of 127 catches, 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns. He averaged 23 fantasy points per game, posting 10 weeks as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, as well as six weeks inside the top-five. Jefferson was once again phenomenal in his own right, but Chase put together an otherworldly campaign in 2024.

James Cook vs. Rachaad White

The Pick: Cook

Maybe it’s because I’m a Buffalo Bills fan. But Cook was one of my favorite players to draft this offseason. Always efficient, Cook had yet to put together a great fantasy season due to his lack of volume and touchdown upside. And interestingly enough, I was excited about him due to his potential to catch passes this season. But my excitement surrounding Cook mostly had to do with the change in Buffalo’s offense last season. Once Joe Brady took over, the Bills transformed into more of a run-first offense, climbing to sixth in the NFL in neutral script rush rate from Week 11 on (48%). Cook averaged over five more touches and 4.7 more fantasy points per game in Brady’s offense last season.

The Answer: Cook

While the pass game usage wasn’t what I expected, Cook enjoyed his best career season. Touchdown variance hit in a huge way, as Cook went from two rushing touchdowns to 16, the most in the league. His 18 total scores ranked second in the NFL. In 2022-2023, Josh Allen recorded 25 carries from inside the five-yard line, while Cook saw only four such carries during that span. That number climbed to 13 in 2024, the 10th-most in the league. Despite averaging just 15 touches per game this season, Cook enjoyed his best season, finishing as the RB11 in points per game (16.7) and RB8 in total points.

Rachaad White, meanwhile, ultimately lost his job to rookie Bucky Irving From Week 11 on, White logged 48.8% of the snaps and handled 13 touches per game, while Irving was at 50% of the snaps and 18.9 touches per game. And during the final two must-win games of the regular season, Irving out-touched White 45-7.

Dak Prescott vs. Kyler Murray

The Pick: Murray

If Murray could stay healthy, I thought there was too much upside to pass on in fantasy drafts. His last healthy season, Murray finished as the QB2 in fantasy and entering the 2024 campaign, Murray was averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. Arizona added Marvin Harrison Jr., and the rushing was always going to be there with Murray, who rushed for at least 30 yards in five of his eight games since making his season debut in Week 10.

The Answer: Murray

Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9 — if he had stayed healthy, he probably would have outperformed Murray, who was incredibly inconsistent this season. He recorded five top-five fantasy finishes, but was also outside the top-20 quarterbacks five times.

George Kittle vs. David Njoku

The Pick: Kittle

Despite the inconsistent volume from Kittle, he remains arguably the most efficient tight end in football. His 11.3 yards per target in 2023 not only led all tight ends with at least 50 targets, but it was also the highest mark of Kittle’s career. Since 2017, Kittle has ranked seventh, fourth, second, second, second, sixth and first in yards per target. Admittedly, this one wasn’t really close for me — it was Kittle all the way.

The Answer: Kittle

Kittle dominated in 2024, leading all tight ends in fantasy points per game with 15.8. He recorded his most targets (94) since 2021, his most receptions (78) since 2019 and his most receiving yards (1,106) since 2018. San Francisco dealt with a ton of injuries on offense, which led to a strong 22% target share for Kittle, his highest in a season since 2021.

DeVonta Smith vs. DK Metcalf

The Pick: Smith

The addition of Kellen Moore had me really excited about what Smith could do in this Philadelphia offense. Moore’s offenses have been heavily predicated on pace and pre-snap motion, two elements that were missing from the Eagles offense in 2023. During that season, Philadelphia utilized pre-snap motion just 22.8% of the time, the lowest rate in the league. Moore’s former team, the Chargers, meanwhile, ranked fifth in pre-snap motion rate at 55.7%. Individually, Smith posted a pre-snap motion rate of 3.2%, one of the lowest in football, while only 17 of his 81 receptions in 2023 came with some motion before the snap. I also expected more slot usage from Smith in Moore’s offense. Entering 2024, he was in the slot just 23.2% of the time for his career.

The Answer: Smith

Despite missing two more games, Smith still outscored Metcalf, averaging around three more fantasy points per game. Smith had nearly 30 targets with the Eagles in pre-snap motion this season, a number that certainly would have been higher if he hadn’t missed four games. We also saw him move into the slot over 50% of the time. What really held Smith back was the addition of Saquon Barkley and emergence of the Philadelphia defense. As a result, the Eagles posted the league’s highest neutral-script rush rate (52.4%), while Smith averaged fewer than seven targets per game.

Derrick Henry vs. Kyren Williams

The Pick: Henry in non PPR

Yes, he’s 30 years old. And yes, he’s seen so many carries. But the thought of Henry alongside Lamar Jackson in Baltimore’s run scheme brought one word to mind.

Unstoppable.

Henry was starting to see his efficiency drop in behind Tennessee’s poor run-blocking unit. But the fit in Baltimore would be perfect for him. And given the gravity that Jackson has on opposing defenses, Henry would see a lot more open lanes to run the football. Since 2000, Baltimore running backs have accounted for three of the top-30 yards before contact per attempt seasons (among players with at least 70 attempts). Secondly, the touchdown upside really excites me. We just watched Gus Edwards, in this same Baltimore offense, lead the league in carries inside the 5-yard line (19), converting them into 12 touchdowns. And keep in mind that the Ravens don’t call designed runs for Lamar Jackson from in close all that much, as he’s seen a total of nine carries inside the 5-yard line over the last two seasons. Between his skill set and fits in this offense, 15-plus touchdowns were absolutely in play for Henry this season.

The Answer: Henry

Surprise, surprise. Henry’s efficiency climbed way back up and he dominated during his first season with the Ravens, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns. In 2023, Henry averaged just 1.8 yards before contact with the Titans, as well as 1.2 second level yards per attempt. This past season, however, he averaged 2.5 yards before contact, while just 13.8% of his runs were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Kyren Williams, meanwhile, put together a second consecutive stellar season but still averaged close to three fewer fantasy points per game than Henry.

Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson

The Pick: Robinson

After Arthur Smith inexplicably limited Robinson’s usage as a rookie, I was excited to see how much more volume he’d see with Smith gone in 2024. After selecting Robinson with the eighth overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, Smith and the Falcons inexplicably gave their best player just 12.6 carries per game. His short-yardage usage was awful, seeing two total goal line carries and just 18.2% of Atlanta’s carries inside the 5-yard line. Robinson accounted for just 41% of Atlanta’s total rush attempts, which ranked 26th among all running backs.

The Answer: Robinson

It was a bit of a slow start for Robinson in 2024. But from Week 6 on, he didn’t look back. During that span, Robinson recorded nine games with at least 20 fantasy points, while averaging 23.3 touches and 22.7 PPR points per game. On the season, his 21.5 touches per game were a step up from the 16 touches per game he averaged as a rookie.

Joe Burrow vs. Jordan Love

The Pick: Burrow

Despite the injury concerns, I still went with Burrow over the exciting Love. Because when he was finally fully healthy in 2023, Burrow looked like the elite quarterback we all remembered. Don’t forget, Burrow entered the 2023 campaign with a calf injury that seriously limited his production and movement around the pocket early on. In Weeks 1-4, Burrow (and the Bengals offense) had to adjust to his calf issue. During that span, because Burrow’s mobility wasn’t as sharp, the Bengals implemented way more quick game in their passing attack, while also drastically cutting their use of play-action. In their first four games, Burrow’s average time to throw of 2.26 seconds was the second-fastest among all quarterbacks, while his 17.9% play-action dropback rate was the ninth lowest in the league. Burrow struggled in that stretch, averaging just 182 passing yards, 0.5 passing touchdowns and just over eight fantasy points per game. It was an awful, uncharacteristic start from Burrow.

Burrow’s calf issue finally improved ahead of a Week 5 date with the Arizona Cardinals. And he wasted no time getting back on track. Burrow destroyed the Cardinals to the tune of 317 yards and three touchdowns. The calf injury was a thing of the past and Burrow returned to being a great real life and fantasy football signal caller. In Weeks 5-10, Burrow ranked fourth in passing yards (1,480), third in touchdown passes (13) and sixth in fantasy points. He posted four top-eight fantasy weeks during that span, while averaging 296 passing yards, 2.4 passing touchdowns and 21.4 fantasy points per contest. The mobility was much improved, too, as Burrow rushed for at least 20 yards twice, while the Bengals’ scheme changed on offense. Burrow’s play-action dropback rate jumped up to nearly 23%, while he was also able to hold onto the football longer and extend plays.

The Answer: Burrow

Simply put, Burrow was one of the best players in all of football this season, throwing for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, while finishing as the QB3 in fantasy points per game. Cincinnati’s struggling defense forced Burrow to throw the football over 38 times per game. He finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks just four weeks all season long.

Drake London vs. Chris Olave

The Pick: Olave

Like DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia, I was also excited about a coordinator change for Olave in New Orleans. The Saints rarely created layup targets for Olave, as go routes consisted of almost 30% of his routes in 2023, while seeing just nine catchable targets off go routes. There was also very little movement in the Saints offense, as New Orleans ranked 31st in pre-snap motion rate, according to FTN Data (29.3%). In particular, Olave was in motion pre-snap just over 9% of the time, while seeing just three total targets following pre-snap motion. The addition of Klint Kubiak had me excited about the Saints finally being able to truly untap Olave’s full potential.

The Answer: London

Remember the first two weeks of the season when the Saints offense looked unstoppable? It had the entire fantasy community thinking Kubiak was a genius and Olave was in store for a huge season. The pre-snap motion was up, and Olave was being used in much more creative ways. Unfortunately, the Saints suffered some awful injury luck, which included Olave dealing with concussions that sidelined him from Week 10 on. London, meanwhile, had a career season (100-1,271-9), despite Kirk Cousins falling very short of expectations in Atlanta.

Mark Andrews vs. Trey McBride

The Pick: Andrews

For a while, McBride was ahead of Andrews in my rankings. And a lot of this decision had to do with ADP. If I have both players ranked closely, why not just wait a few rounds to get Andrews? I also thought Andrews would once again operate as the top target in Baltimore’s passing attack, while McBride would lose significant work to Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Answer: McBride

Swing and a miss.

The season started in nightmarish fashion for Andrews, who was the TE29 in fantasy during the first five weeks. He was hardly even running 50% of the routes and was, at times, the fourth option in the passing attack. Andrews would get it going during the second half, scoring a touchdown in each of his final six games. But McBride dominated Arizona’s pass game with 147 targets, 111 receptions and 1,146 yards. If he had any sort of touchdown luck, we’d be looking at an all-time tight end season.

Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes

The Pick: Hurts

I actually thought Mahomes would win the MVP in the offseason but still went with Hurts as the better fantasy quarterback. Entering 2024, Hurts had put together consecutive top-three fantasy scoring seasons, averaging over 23 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Last season, Hurts set career-highs in passing touchdowns (23) and passing yards (3,858). His 15 rushing touchdowns tied Josh Allen for the most among quarterbacks, as well as the most by a quarterback in a single season. Over the past three seasons, Hurts is averaging an insane 12.6 rushing touchdowns per year. The tush push may have annoyed the rest of the league, but those with Hurts on their fantasy rosters absolutely loved the most unstoppable play in football. Hurts finished with 16 rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line last season, the most among quarterbacks and sixth-most in all of football. He accounted for 53.3% of Philadelphia’s carries inside the 5-yard line, good for the 16th-highest rate in the league.

The Answer: Hurts

Mahomes once again disappointed as a fantasy signal caller, largely due to all of the injuries to Kansas City’s wide receivers. There was a point where we were comfortably starting players like Bo Nix, Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield over him. Hurts, meanwhile, was the QB6 in points per game. His passing volume went way down with the addition of Saquon Barkley and emergence of the defense but Hurts still scored 14 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 3.1 red zone carries per game.

De’Von Achane vs. Isiah Pacheco

The Pick: Pacheco

Most had Achane over Pacheco this offseason but I was excited about the prospects of Pacheco getting the pass game role in Kansas City’s offense. He had already been very impressive on a per-touch basis, ranking ninth in rushing success rate (40%), 10th in yards after contact per attempt (2.6) and fifth in EPA per attempt (0.10). And given how much the Chiefs trusted him during their Super Bowl run, I expected plenty of work in 2024. If he gained the third down role, I thought there was top-10 upside. Over his first two seasons, Pacheco played about 11% of the snaps on long down and distances, as well as 21% in the two-minute drill. And last year, he had just one total reception in the two-minute drill, while his four third-down receptions ranked 35th among running backs. With Jerick McKinnon (15 third-down catches) gone, Pacheco had the chance to become a three-down player.

The Answer: Achane

Achane obviously won this matchup, as Pacheco broke his fibula in Week 2. But if he had stayed healthy, I think he finishes as a top-eight fantasy running back. During the first two weeks, Pacheco averaged 20.5 touches and nearly four receptions per game, while also playing close to 40% of the third downs.

Tyreek Hill vs. CeeDee Lamb

The Pick: Flipping and Flopping

This one was pretty simple for me. At the time, Lamb was holding out and given the uncertainty surrounding Dallas, I went with Hill in this scenario, especially considering how close the two wideouts are in the first place. But once Lamb agreed to a four-year, $136 million deal, he vaulted back ahead of Hill in my rankings.

The Answer: Lamb

Both players dealt with injuries to their quarterbacks, but Miami’s offense was basically unwatchable when Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined. Lamb still averaged 9.7 targets and 16.5 fantasy points per game without Prescott in the lineup.