Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I will address the constant changes in the dynasty landscape. This will help us as fantasy football managers to stay up to date on the most current headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
Coaching Changes
The last two coaching vacancies around the NFL were filled in the wake of the Super Bowl. Now, the Panthers, Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Broncos all have new head coaches. Three of those coaches — Frank Reich (Carolina), Sean Payton (Denver) and Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) — are known for their offensive minds, which could mean a boost in the fantasy stocks of the players on their new teams.
The Panthers brought in quarterback guru Reich in the hope of finally putting an end to the revolving door they have had at the position the past few seasons. With a few quality quarterbacks potentially hitting the open market this year, we could see them bring in one of them, but holding a top-10 pick in this year’s draft it is possible they make a move for one in the draft. If they choose to go the rookie quarterback route, it’s likely we see a heavy dose of the run game, so I am looking to invest there as well — likely looking toward Chuba Hubbard. We have also seen the tight end position take a prominent role in Reich’s offense in the past, so I am intrigued by players like Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble at the right price.
As for the Broncos, they sent away yet again more draft picks in an effort to right the ship, sending draft capital to New Orleans to hire Payton. Payton did wonders for the Saints in the past, proving to be one of the best offensive minds in the game. It is likely we see a nice bounceback from the Broncos’ offense as a whole, as I expect Russell Wilson to look much better in 2023. That would mean we could also see a bounceback from Courtland Sutton, who could play a role similar to the one Michael Thomas played in New Orleans. Javonte Williams is likely another huge beneficiary, although we may not see it in 2023 as he recovers from an ACL injury. But 2024 and beyond could offer have some huge upside.
For the Colts, they decided to move on from interim Jeff Saturday in favor of ex-Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who helped build a Super Bowl-caliber offense. Most impressively, the Eagles’ offense finished top five in total points, yards and giveaways this past season. Additionally, the Eagles have finished top five in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns two years straight, this is great news for the Colts’ run game and Jonathan Taylor — who I expect to bounce back in a big way.
Derek Carr on the Move
As of Tuesday evening, Derek Carr is officially a free agent after his release from Las Vegas. It was only a matter of time after he was benched for Jarrett Stidham in Week 16. After a year in 2021 where he set career highs in completions (428), attempts (626) and yards (4,804), he surprisingly regressed in 2022. Davante Adams was brought in to help take the offense to the next level and give Carr a true perimeter weapon, but that did not go as planned. Carr failed to break 4,000 passing yards for the first time in five years (and might not have gotten there even if he hadn’t been benched) and had his lowest completion percentage (60.8%) since his rookie year (58.1%).
Carr becomes one of the better quarterbacks to hit the open market in recent years. Even at the age of 31, he should still has a few years of good production left. With teams like the Jets, Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Colts looking to improve their quarterback situations, he will likely draw a ton of interest. No matter where he goes, he should offer some level if stability to his new team’s passing game and offense. That should result in improved fantasy consistency.
Minnesota Vikings Players on the Way Out
With a disappointing end to the season in Minnesota, we could see a few veterans on the way out of town. Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook could both be cap casualties this offseason. Cook is coming off one of his least effective seasons ever, averaging a career-low 4.4 yards per carry. On the flip side, he was able to play in every game for the first time in his career, a big part of the reason he still finished as RB11 despite his lack of efficiency. 28 when Week 1 rolls around, he is set to make over $14 million this season, and with a quality free-agent group and draft class on the horizon, the Vikings could find a much cheaper option to pair with Alexander Mattison (assuming he returns; Mattison is a free agent).
Thielen did manage to finish inside the top 36 this past season in PPR formats, but he is going to be 33 years old this year and is coming off a year where he produced his lowest yardage total (716) in four years. He also scored only 6 touchdowns after 14 and 10 the last two years. With this dip in efficiency and production, there is potential the Vikings consider exercising their out in his contract. They can avoid paying him over $25 million if they do, but this becomes fully guaranteed March 17, so we’ll find out their plan sooner rather than later. If they move on, it will be interesting to see where he goes, as he has proven to still have some viability when it comes to fantasy. If you get offered him in a trade, it may be best to avoid him until further notice, unless you are getting him at a discounted price.
