Diamonds (and Saints) in the Rough

The New Orleans Saints have a deep arsenal of weapons on offense, but only one football to go around. Although that’s a good thing for a team looking to return to the playoffs, it’s a headache for fantasy managers everywhere. Let’s try to sort out where some of those players fit in the fantasy pecking order. 

In Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Taysom Hill, the Saints already had three players who finished last year with notable fantasy efficiency in part-time or committee roles, and then they added a fourth when they signed Jamaal Williams in free agency. Here’s a look at how those players ranked in both snaps and PPR scoring on a per-game basis in 2022:

Let’s start with the incumbents. The New Orleans wide receiver depth chart was quite a mess last year, with eight different wideouts seeing at least 100 snaps but none seeing more than rookie Chris Olave, who played barely 600 snaps despite playing in 15 games—he finished fourth in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting even though he was standing on the sidelines about one-third of the time. Michael Thomas only played in three games in 2022, but he still put up a 16-171-3 statline, catching at least five passes for 49 yards in every game. And let’s not forget Rashid Shaheed, the undrafted rookie out of Weber State (124th in snaps per game, 64th in PPR scoring). With the Jarvis Landrys and Marquez Callaways and Kevin Whites of the world heading out of New Orleans and Derek Carr coming in, Olave, Thomas, and Shaheed should each have a clear path to more playing time and better numbers in 2023, right?

Well, not so fast. Olave was the 11th overall draft pick for a reason and should improve this fall, but his teammates look like high-risk acquisitions with plenty of bust potential. Thomas is now 30 years old and has played in only 10 games the last three years, while Shaheed’s entire fantasy resume consists of a handful of big games late in the season for a team that was never in serious playoff contention. Get Olave if you can, but otherwise it’s best to look elsewhere for your wideouts.

Carr’s arrival may signal better days for the New Orleans passing attack, but it likely spells the end of Hill’s appearances as a gadget quarterback, which in turn would end his fantasy relevance. Though he’s listed on the Saints roster and most fantasy services as a tight end, the bulk of Hill’s fantasy value last year came in cameo appearances in relief of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Between rushing and passing, Hill had over 800 combined yards and produced nine touchdowns, but his receiving statline was a meager 9-77-2 in 16 games. If he’s not taking snaps, there’s no point in having him on your fantasy roster. He may still see some goal-line carries, but the Saints guaranteed Carr $100 million, and it’s not because they wanted to take him off the field. 

That leaves us with Williams, who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022 despite splitting time nearly evenly with D’Andre Swift in Detroit. That was a fluky total, however, fueled by an absurd 45 carries inside the 10-yard line (nobody else had even 30) and far outside the bounds of Williams’ historical norms (13 rushing touchdowns in his first five seasons). In New Orleans, Williams will have to battle for those precious goal-line carries with not only Hill but also Alvin Kamara and third-round rookie Kendre Miller. Williams may finish as a viable fantasy starter, but he will probably be drafted too highly in your league. 

Here’s a look at some other players who shined in small roles last year and will be vying for more playing time this season:

RUNNING BACKS

Breece Hall, NYJ

33.3 Snaps Per Game (29th)

16.4 PPR Per Game (eighth)

Even before his season ended with a torn ACL in Week 7, Hall was splitting time with Michael Carter; he only had three games with double-digit carries. Now the Jets backfield is even more crowded, and Hall will have to battle both Carter and Dalvin Cook for snaps. Hall’s ceiling still makes him fantasy-viable, but you’ll want to pair him with a more reliable runner. 

D’Andre Swift, PHI

28.1 Snaps Per Game (45th)

13.7 PPR Per Game (16th)

Swift moves from one committee backfield in Detroit to another in Philadelphia. With 156 catches in three NFL seasons, he’s a much more accomplished receiver than Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, or Trey Sermon. That value in the passing game means he’s still a reasonable fantasy starter in PPR leagues. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Christian Watson, GB

36.2 Snaps Per Game (89th)

11.7 PPR Per Game (34th)

After dropping what should have been a long touchdown pass in Week 1, the rookie from North Dakota State spent several months in the Green Bay doghouse. From Week 10 on, however, he put up a 31-523-7 statline that made him a top-10 fantasy wideout. He could maintain that status over a full season if he can develop a rapport with Jordan Love.  

Mecole Hardman, NYJ

37.9 Snaps Per Game (84th)

11.7 PPR Per Game (33rd)

Hardman put up a 17-226-3 statline in his last four games in Kansas City before an abdominal injury ended his season. Now he’s in New York, where he will battle Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for WR2 duties behind Garrett Wilson. At 25 years old, he’s three years younger than Lazard and eight years younger than Cobb; that youth and room to grow may make him the most attractive target.

TIGHT ENDS

Darren Waller, NYG

38.4 Snaps Per Game (26th)

9.4 PPR Per Game (10th)

Now in his early thirties, Waller’s not likely to go over 1,000 yards receiving again like he did in 2019 and 2020. But Daniel Jones needs to throw to somebody, and with a wideout room consisting of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, and Sterling Shepard, Waller may be the most reliable receiver on the Giants roster. 

Jordan Akins, CLE

27.1 Snaps Per Game (55th)

7.8 PPR Per Game (20th)

Akins led the Texans in receiving touchdowns last season because … well, somebody had to. He now finds himself backing up David Njoku in Cleveland, but the Browns use a lot of multiple-tight end sets, so he could still be fantasy-relevant when all is said and done.