Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Let’s get it out of the way early: 2022 was most definitely not the sexiest crop of rookies, nor the most glamorous of landing spots for many top players. However, I identified 10 players whose fantasy football stock rose based on their landing spot and draft capital.
This article will be ordered by the players’ draft capital to help you chronologically relive the excitement of this past weekend.
Drake London, WR, ATL – Pick 8
Prior to the Falcons selecting Drake London, their No. 1 WR was Olamide Zaccheaus, a player whose high-water mark for yardage was the 406 he compiled last season. London is a talented three-year receiver out of USC, who had 136 receiving yards per game in 2021 as a junior. He is capable of handling high volume, and together with Kyle Pitts, roughly 50% of the Atlanta passing offense should funnel through these two. Failure to crest 100 targets as a rookie would be surprising, and London immediately placed himself in the WR2/WR3 conversation with this landing spot.
Treylon Burks, WR, TEN – Pick 18
There were rumors of Treylon Burks falling toward the end of Round 1, so coming off the board at Pick 18 was already a success. The Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles, and Burks’ ceiling comp has frequently been Brown due to their frames, athleticism and after-the-catch abilities. He should step right into most of Brown’s volume, and Ryan Tannehill is more than competent at QB. The rest of the Titans’ depth chart is post-ACL tear Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Even in a low-volume passing offense, Burks should still be able to reach 100 targets as a rookie, and like London, he will be in the WR2/WR3 conversation over the summer.
Kenny Pickett, QB, PIT – Pick 20
The only QB taken in the first 73 picks, Kenny Pickett went to an ideal landing spot in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a stable organization up top, and their offenses have been very pass-heavy the past two seasons despite well below-average QB play from Ben Roethlisberger. On top of a pass-heavy scheme and a stable organization, Pickett is surrounded by weapons. This offseason, the Steelers upgraded the offensive line, then snagged WR George Pickens in the second round and the speedy Calvin Austin in Round 4. These two join Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris to form one of the NFL’s best skill position groups. Overall, Pickett went to the absolute best landing spot, as Mitchell Trubisky signed a two-year deal for backup QB money, and we all know Mason Rudolph isn’t the long-term answer. I expect Kenny Pickett to start by October, and he’ll have QB2 value in superflex leagues.
Christian Watson, WR, GB – Pick 34
Pre-draft, I compared Christian Watson to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, so him arriving in Green Bay made a lot of sense. Watson is raw, but incredibly athletic. If any team would be able to develop and get the most out of Watson, it’d be the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. He will compete for targets with Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb, so there’s potential for him to become Rodgers’ No. 1 option sometime during his rookie season. Watson is firmly on the WR4 radar, thanks to Rodgers, the Packers’ depth chart, and his big play ability.
Alec Pierce, WR, IND – Pick 53
Like Christian Watson, Alec Pierce is a large, athletic WR whose production in college left much to be desired. Fortunately, he finds himself catching passes from a competent QB in Matt Ryan and projects as the clear No. 2 passing-game option behind Michael Pittman. The Parris Campbell experience is reaching year 4, Ashton Dulin is mainly a special teams player, and T.Y. Hilton is more likely to retire than return to the Colts. Pierce most likely won’t be fantasy relevant in 2022 due to his college profile, but this landing spot is the reason to give him a chance late in your 2022 fantasy drafts. I have him ranked as a Round 2/Round 3 turn pick in rookie drafts, and a player whose stock should rise during his rookie year thanks to the immediate opportunity in Indianapolis.
Skyy Moore, WR, KC – Pick 54
Very few small-school players are drafted early in the NFL Draft, and even fewer were early declares, playing only three seasons in college. Add on that most of Skyy Moore’s sophomore season was erased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He is a truly special player who ended up in the best possible situation, catching passes from Patrick Mahomes for at least the first four seasons of his career. Travis Kelce is in his mid-30s with declining efficiency. JuJu Smith-Schuster has also seen his efficiency decline the past four years. And free agent signee Marquez Valdes-Scantling has never commanded a high volume of targets. Moore was productive from Day 1 in college, racking up over 800 yards as a true freshman. He has a solid chance to out-produce the other rookies in Year 1 and should be viewed as a WR3 in 2022 fantasy drafts and a mid-first round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
James Cook, RB, BUF – Pick 63
James Cook is small and never received high volume on the ground or through the air in college, so his profile is murky for fantasy football. But, if there were a team he could be fantasy relevant on, it would be the Buffalo Bills. The team has received inefficient play from their RBs in the receiving game, and their earlier pursuit of J.D. McKissic this offseason signaled their intention to throw more to the RB in 2022. Cook is a slick receiver who should immediately step into a third down role in a pass-happy, top-five offense. Consider James Cook in the early second round of rookie drafts, and he’s probably an upside RB4 in redraft.
Rachaad White, RB, TB – Pick 91
With Rachaad White, the initial concern was always draft capital: There was a chance he last until Round 4 or 5 of the NFL Draft. The Buccaneers selecting him in the third alleviated that concern, and the only hurdle on the depth chart is Leonard Fournette who turns 28 years old during next year’s NFL playoffs and has a lengthy injury history in his own right. White had nearly 500 receiving yards this past season at Arizona State, along with over 1,000 yards on the ground. He should immediately cut into Fournette’s receiving workload, and projects as a top-five fantasy RB were Fournette to miss any time. White should be one of the first backup RBs selected in 2022 fantasy drafts, and I have him ranked as a borderline Round 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
David Bell, WR, CLE – Pick 99
David Bell had over 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman at Purdue, then averaged over 100 yards per game in both his sophomore and junior seasons. Concerns about his 4.65 40-time caused his draft capital down spiral, but the Browns rescued him from this fall toward the end of Round 3. Bell should immediately be the No. 2 passing-game option in Cleveland behind Amari Cooper, as none of Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant projects to command notable volume in 2022 and beyond. Bell should be drafted as a WR5 type in redraft — with serious upside, and I would take him early Round 2 in rookie drafts. Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry are two fantasy stars running molasses-level 40-times like Bell, and both were drafted on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, as well. However, Bell’s production profile is significantly better than Landry or Allen’s. He will be tethered to Deshaun Watson with a clear path to 20% of the team’s pass game targets as early as this season.
Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU – Pick 107
Dameon Pierce was not a prospect I was very high on coming into the draft, as he never had more than 106 carries or 19 receptions in a college season. However, he was efficient per touch and now lands in the most wide-open backfield in the entire NFL. The Texans’ RB room previously consisted of Rex Burkhead, Marlon Mack and Dare Ogunbowale. No other landing spot provides Pierce with a clearer path to major playing time as a rookie. When weighing the weak prospect profile with the ideal landing spot, Pierce is someone I’d pull the trigger on mid-Round 2 of rookie drafts, and he likely goes in RB3/RB4 territory for summer redraft leagues.
