Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Chicago Bears head to Cleveland to take on the Browns in Week 3, with both teams enter the contest at 1-1. Both teams dropped their opening contest — the Bears lost to the Rams, the Browns lost to the Chiefs — but they rebounded with wins in Week 2. The Bears squeaked out a three-point home victory vs. the Bengals, while the Browns rolled to a comfortable win over the Texans.
Who has the edge in this contest? Let’s dive into this matchup and try to identify some betting value.
Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns Week 3 odds
Date/Time: September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Arena: FirstEnergy Stadium
How to watch: FOX
Opening odds: Browns -7.5 | O/U 47.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Latest Bears-Browns odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Browns -7.5
- Total: 46.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Bears vs. Browns
There’s a bit of uncertainty surrounding this game at the moment. The Bears lost Andy Dalton to a knee injury last week, but early reports indicate that he avoided a serious injury. He’s dealing with a bone bruise, and it’s unclear if that will impact his availability in Week 3. However, head coach Matt Nagy told reporters that Dalton is still his starter when healthy, so expect him to be in the lineup if he’s medically cleared.
It doesn’t seem to matter to bettors who the Bears have under center in this matchup. The Browns have received 67% of the early spread tickets and 97% of the spread dollars. If that kind of avalanche of Browns’ money continues, expect this line to move off the current number.
As for the total, the under seems to be the preferred side early in the week. The number opened at 47.0, but it’s down to 46.5 across the industry.
Quarterback analysis – Andy Dalton/Justin Fields vs. Baker Mayfield
Bears fans probably don’t want to hear this, but Andy Dalton might give them a better chance of winning at the current moment. Dalton averaged 6.91 adjusted yards per attempt while completing 81.8% of his passes. He also threw a touchdown pass to Allen Robinson on their opening drive, which was their only offensive score of the game.
Fields averaged a paltry 1.15 adjusted yards per attempt in relief of Dalton last week, which is almost impossible. He also finished with one interception and one fumble while averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. The Bengals’ defense is not a feared unit, so those numbers are a bit concerning.
I’m certainly not writing Fields off already, and he would probably fare better with a full week of practice and a game plan specifically designed for his skill set. Still, I think bettors will believe that Fields is an upgrade over Dalton, and I’m not sure I agree with that assessment.
If Dalton is healthy enough to suit up, he has historically posted a record of 6-8-1 against the spread when getting at least a touchdown. That’s not an inspiring mark.
Baker Mayfield and the Browns were unable to cover as large favorites last week vs. the Texans, bringing his career record to just 9-15-1 when laying points.
Mayfield also had plenty break in his favor last week. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were able to dominate in the run game, combining for 146 rush yards on 6.08 yards per attempt. The Bears were fourth in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA last season, so the Mayfield may not have that luxury this week.
The Texans also lost starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, leaving rookie quarterback Davis Mills to play the second half. He looked completely overmatched during the preseason, so it’s not surprising he struggled against the Browns’ starting defense.
The Browns are undoubtedly a good football team, but they very rarely win games because of their quarterback play.
Latest Bears betting news & info
Speaking of the Bears’ defense, they have had two wildly different performances to start the year. They were literally the worst defensive team in football in Week 1, ranking dead last in defensive DVOA while surrendering 34 points to the Rams.
They turned things around in a big way last week. They limited the Bengals to just 248 yards of total offense to go along with four sacks and four turnovers. They also managed to take an interception back to the house, which ended up being crucial in a three-point game.
I tend to think the second game was more indicative of the strength of this unit. Four turnovers and a score is obviously an outlier outcome, but this team has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. It’s possible that the Rams’ offense is simply going to be a juggernaut this season, so they should hold their own vs. most opposing units.
Latest Browns betting news & info
The Browns could have a serious issue at wide receiver this week. Jarvis Landry is currently dealing with a meniscus injury, and he’s considered week-to-week. Odell Beckham has yet to suit up this season while recovering from knee surgery, so it’s possible that the Browns are without their top two pass catchers vs. the Bears.
The Browns don’t have a ton of depth behind those players. Anthony Schwartz, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashad Higgins would be the next men up, while rookie Demetric Felton would also factor into the equation.
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Bears vs. Browns betting picks – NFL Week 3
Ultimately, my favorite play in this game is the under. Both teams have injury concerns, and neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts to begin with.
The big key is whether the Bears can stop the Browns’ rushing attack. If they can do that, I doubt that Mayfield can pick apart their secondary without his top two receivers.
The injury report will be important to monitor throughout the week, but I don’t want to risk this number getting any lower.
Here are our betting picks for Bears vs. Browns in Week 3.
FTNBets best bets
- Under 46.5
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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