Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 3’s Miami Dolphins/Las Vegas Raiders matchup is one of the most intriguing games of the week. The Dolphins have playoff aspirations this season, but they’re coming off a dreadful shutout loss vs. the Bills last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders have won each of their first two games as underdogs, making them one of the most surprising 2-0 teams in the league.
Will the Raiders come crashing back to reality this week? Let’s dive in.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 3 odds
Date/Time: September 26, 4:05 p.m. ET
Arena: Allegiant Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Opening odds: Raiders -4.5 | O/U 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Latest Dolphins-Raiders odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Raiders -4.0
- Total: 45.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Dolphins vs. Raiders
It’s still unclear who is going to be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins, but the sharps don’t seem to care. The Dolphins have received just 18% of the early spread bets and 25% of the spread dollars, but this line has still moved from Raiders -4.5 to Raiders -4.0. It’s even down to Raiders -3.5 in some places, which suggests some sharp interest in the Dolphins.
There hasn’t been any movement on the total, but there was a steam move tracked recently on the over of 45.5.
Quarterback analysis – Tua Tagovailoa/Jacoby Brissett vs. Derek Carr
Tua Tagovailoa is a polarizing quarterback. Some people think he has no business starting for an NFL squad, while others think he’s a promising prospect.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. He posted a 6-3 record while averaging 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt as a rookie. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they definitely don’t inspire confidence that he’s going to be a star. Unfortunately, he hasn’t taken a step forward to start his sophomore season, averaging 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt with one touchdown and one interception through his first two games.
Jacoby Brissett was even worse in relief of Tagovailoa last week. He racked up just 169 yards on a ridiculous 40 attempts, resulting in a paltry 3.10 adjusted yards per attempt. He also threw one interception in the shutout loss.
Tagovailoa’s availability vs. the Raiders will reportedly come down to pain tolerance. He’s dealing with rib injuries, so he will be at risk every time he’s hit. It’s unclear if he’ll ultimately get the green light, but Tagovailoa would be preferred for Dolphins’ bettors.
The Raiders are also dealing with an injury at quarterback. Derek Carr was hobbled down the stretch vs. the Steelers, but head coach Jon Gruden told reporters he expects Carr to suit up this week.
That’s great news for the Raiders since Carr is off to the best start of his career. He leads the league with 817 passing yards through his first two games to go along with four touchdowns and one interception. His average of 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt would also represent a new career best.
That said, this is a different dynamic for Carr and the Raiders. They’ve been underdogs the past two weeks, but they’re favored vs. the Dolphins. Carr has minimal history as a favorite, but he’s just 13-18-1 against the spread in that situation.
Latest Dolphins betting news & info
Whoever is under center for the Dolphins should benefit from the likely return of Will Fuller. He missed Week 1 while serving the final game of a six-game suspension, and he missed Week 2 due to a personal matter.
However, Fuller reportedly returned to the Dolphins’ facility Monday and is expected to make his team debut. Fuller was having a huge year last season before getting suspended, racking up 53 catches, 879 yards and eight touchdowns in just 11 games. He’ll combine with DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle to give the team three legit threats at wide receiver.
Latest Raiders betting news & info
Carr isn’t the only significant injury the Raiders are dealing with. Josh Jacobs missed last week’s game against the Steelers, and Gruden told reporters he’s “very questionable” for Week 3. Starting guard Richie Incognito has also missed the past two games.
That could have huge implications vs. the Dolphins. Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake handled the rushing responsibilities last week, and they combined for just 41 yards and 20 carries.
The Dolphins were a massive run funnel last year — they ranked sixth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA and 22nd in rush defense DVOA — so a subpar rushing attack would be a problem in this matchup.
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Dolphins vs. Raiders betting picks – NFL Week 3
I love the Dolphins in this spot. The Raiders are coming off two impressive victories, which has caused their stock to skyrocket. The Dolphins were actually 1-point favorites on the advance point spread, so we’re getting nearly five full points of value!
Additionally, the Dolphins fit a ton of my personal betting trends that I’ve created. I won’t bore you with all the numbers, but essentially, buying teams after a blowout loss is generally good practice. Teams coming off a defeat of 35 points or more have historically posted a record of 64-37-5 against the spread the following week. That’s good for an elite 22% return on investment.
I’m grabbing this number at four while it’s still available.
FTNBets best bets
- Dolphins +4.0
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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