NFL betting trends entering Week 3

Week 2 of the NFL season is now behind us. One of my favorite things to do in Week 2 of any season is look back at some of the overreactions that happened in Week 1.

Derrick Henry is still a monster and will put up massive games this season. Week 1 was a worst-case scenario for him as the Titans fell behind big early and had to throw their way out of a hole. That is not a gamescript that lends itself to a big Henry day. Week 2 was a much closer game and Henry reminded everyone why he has led the league in rushing every year that start with 202X. 

The Green Bay Packers also bounced back from a Week 1 beatdown. They lost to the Saints in Week 1, who proceeded to get beat up on by the Panthers in Week 2. I think both of those results are more typical of the teams than the first week of the season. This is why I cautioned everyone last week that a one game sample is not enough to start making any reasonable assumptions. 

This does not mean the data are useless. We are starting to see some trends emerge in respect to which teams are good, which are not, and which will or will not be scoring a lot of points. Matchups are a major part of handicapping any NFL action, so make sure to look at any results through that lens. It is the only way to paint a clear picture of what is actually going on. With that said, let’s take a look at the numbers and point out some things to watch moving forward. 

Another day for the dogs

In Week 1, we had nine underdogs win outright and 12 cover the spread. Those numbers were high and likely unsustainable. They began to revert back in Week 2, but betting underdogs still remained profitable. We had five underdogs win outright in Week 2 — the Raiders, Panthers, Titans, Cowboys and Ravens. We had four more underdogs cover but lose their game. The Giants covered but lost to the Washington Football Team. The Rams won but did not cover against Indianapolis. The Browns won by double digits but did not cover the massive spread against the Texans. And finally, the Cardinals won on a last-second field goal miss, but failed to cover against the Vikings. That means we had underdogs go 9-7 against the spread in Week 2 for another winning week. A flat one-unit bet on all the underdogs ATS in Week 2 returned a profit of 1.19 units at standard juice. 

Good teams win, great teams cover

Last week we had only four favorites win and cover the spread. This week that number nearly doubled to seven. The Patriots, Broncos, Bills, 49ers, Bears, Bucs and Packers all covered their number while winning their respective games. That means through 32 games we have had 11 favorites that covered the spread in their wins. That is just a 34.3% cash rate when laying points through two weeks. In total we have had 18 favorites win their games outright (56.3%). 

This means that we have had underdogs win outright in 43.7% of their games. We had four dogs lose while covering the spread in Week 2. That brings the number up to seven dogs in two weeks that covered despite losing. We have seen 14 underdogs win outright. When we add those outright winners to the losers who covered, we get 21 of 32 games where the underdog cashed ATS. This number is definitely high vs. historical averages, so expect more of the favorites to start cashing as they did in Week 2 going forward. 

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NFL scoring report

In Week 1, we had unders outpace overs by a margin of 9-7. I mentioned that this tends to end up around even most weeks with only a game or two in either direction. This week we had it nailed right on the nose with eight games going over and eight playing to the under. On the season, the records to the over are 15-17. 

We have eight teams (25%) that have gone over in both games. Ten teams have gone under in both contests, leaving 14 teams at the 1-1 mark. It is still a little too early with only a two-game sample size to really say any of this is a definitive trend, but it is worth knowing which teams are and aren’t putting up points. If you want to see the entire list, check out the against the spread and vs. the total report on FTNBets.