Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It is never too early to talk about fantasy football.
No, talking about fantasy during the month of June isn’t early at all. Unless you are talking about the 2021 season already, of course. There’s interest, there’s passion and then there is insanity.
Here we are.
A fun exercise is to look ahead and try to see even more of the fantasy future. No, the 2020 season hasn’t started yet, but I want to jump forward and go through a two-round fantasy mock of the 2021 season. This can be a helpful exercise, especially for those in dynasty leagues, to see where certain players are valued as we look ahead.
Round 1
1.01: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Barkley dealt with injury last season but when healthy, he was his usual fantastic self. During his 12 healthy weeks, he was the RB3 in fantasy and played 84% of the snaps. The focal point of an improving Giants offense, Barkley will be just 23 years old and is one of the best running back prospects ever.
1.02: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey led the NFL in opportunity share in 2019 (91.5%) and played 93% of the snaps. He will continue to see a ton of volume, especially in the passing game. McCaffrey has a near 25% market share over the last three years, an insane mark for a running back and he’ll continue to get plenty of targets alongside a conservative quarterback and a bad defense.
1.03: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
After signing a six-year contract extension, Elliott is locked into Dallas for a while. He’s handled a ton of work, leading the NFL in carries (1,169) and rushing yards (5,405) since entering the league in 2016. The Cowboys will have a top-five offense for years to come and Zeke will be the driving force behind it.
1.04: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Kareem Hunt is set to become a free agent in 2021. If he joins another team, Chubb could get that elusive third-down work that has kept him from being a top-five fantasy back. He’s been one of the best pure runners in the league since entering, ranking sixth and first in breakaway runs over his first two seasons. Chubb will produce again in 2020, Hunt will walk, and the Georgia product will emerge as a consensus top-five pick, especially playing in a youthful Cleveland offense oozing with potential.
1.05: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Kamara had a bit of a disappointing 2019 campaign, but things should be better in 2020. The touchdowns will go back up and (hopefully) he won’t suffer an ankle sprain. Before getting hurt, Kamara was the most elusive back in football. With at least 4.5 yards per carry and 81 catches in three straight seasons, Kamara is one of the most efficient backs in football.
1.06: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon is tough to decipher because of his contract situation. He could be a free agent in 2021, and there are already rumors that he could hold out this year. But if he’s the guy for the Bengals, he’s a first-round pick. Mixon came on down the stretch of 2019, ranking second in rushing yards (817), second in 100-yard games (4) and fourth in fantasy points from Week 10 on. With Joe Burrow, the Bengals offense will continue to improve.
1.07: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Adams will lead the NFL in targets in 2020, en route to a fantastic season. Remember, once he returned from his turf toe injury in Week 9 of 2019, only Michael Thomas had more targets than Adams, who also finished the year with a 30.3% target share. Adams was also targeted on 18.1% of his snaps in 2019, the third-highest rate among qualified receivers.
1.08: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Thomas set the record for most receptions in a season in 2019 and he’ll continue on that sort of path in 2020. Drew Brees is back and even if 2020 is his final year, Jameis Winston has proven that he can certainly keep receivers fantasy relevant. Heck, we might even see more explosive plays from Thomas, as Winston loves throwing deep. With no other receivers worthy of big target totals, Thomas should remain in that 30% target share range going forward. He’s missed one career game.
1.09: Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Cook might be a free agent in 2021, while he’s also dealt with injuries since college. However, he was mostly healthy in 2019, leading the NFL in rushing scores and ranking second in fantasy points before going down in Week 14. Cook has missed 19 games due to injury in three seasons but if he remains healthy and the lead back in Minnesota, he’ll warrant a top-10 pick.
1.10: Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
During his rookie year, Sanders flashed but didn’t show his true upside until the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-9, Sanders was splitting work with veteran Jordan Howard, averaging just 8.3 carries per game. However, Howard got hurt after Week 9, and from that point on, Sanders saw his workload jump to 15.6 carries and 4.1 receptions per game. During that same span, Sanders ranked fifth among all backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.55) and 10th among all runners in fantasy points. In 2020, the Eagles will give him the most work a running back has had since Doug Pederson took over as head coach.
1.11: Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
An emerging star, Godwin broke out in 2019 to the tune of 86 catches, 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. He finished third in contested catch rate (64%), sixth in fantasy points per target (2.30) and fourth in yards per target (11.2). Expect him to continue to ascend into one of the game’s best receivers, especially with Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay.
1.12: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes was asked which player he wanted the Chiefs to draft in 2020. The answer? Edwards-Helaire. Head coach Andy Reid said he’s a better version of Brian Westbrook, who averaged 71 receptions under Reid from 2004 to 2008. He’ll pass Damien Williams on the depth chart and serve as the lead back in one of the best offenses in all of football.
Round 2
2.01: Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Staying in Kansas City, Hill has been inside the top-five in fantasy points per route run in each of the last two seasons. Being paired with Patrick Mahomes is as enticing as it gets for fantasy purposes, as Hill has found the end zone 36 times in 59 career games.
2.02: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor, college football’s best interior runner over the last few years, joins the Colts, who sport the NFL’s best interior offensive line. The Colts ranked fourth in football in second-level yards, which are classified as yards in which the running back gains between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Marlon Mack averaged a very healthy 2.4 yards before contact per attempt in 2019, good for 14th-best in the league. Mack is a free agent in 2021 and I’d be shocked if he remained in Indianapolis, which means Taylor could see 280-300 carries in his sophomore season.
2.03: Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders
Jacobs is an emerging star. During his rookie campaign, he led all qualified backs in tackles avoided per attempt (0.29), while also ranking eighth in evaded tackles and sixth in juke rate. The only thing keeping him from being a first-round pick is his lack of involvement in the passing game.
2.04: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins has been a fantasy star throughout his career but now joins the Cardinals, where his target share could drop a bit. Still, the 28-year-old is the unquestioned top option in an improving and fantasy-friendly offense. The Cardinals were fourth in the NFL in pace of play in 2019 (25.7 seconds per play), while Kyler Murray is an ascending talent.
2.05: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Jones will be 32 years old in 2021 but he’s given us no reason to expect a dramatic dropoff. His 96.7 receiving yards per game are still the most in the history of football, meaning he remains the best yardage receiver of all time. He reached the 1,400-yard mark in each year from 2014 to 2018 and missed it by only six yards in 2019, while ranking inside the top-three in receiving yards every year since 2015. During that same span, Jones has ranked first, first, first, second and fifth in yards per pass route, posting an average of 2.92 in that five-year stretch.
2.06: Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
Golladay already appears to be Detroit’s WR1, and with Marvin Jones hitting the market in 2021, it’ll be unquestioned. He led the NFL in deep targets a season ago (37) and was among the league leaders in end zone targets. If Jones is gone in 2021 (a huge end zone target during his time with the Lions), Golladay could easily lead that department for years to come.
2.07: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
The TE1 in fantasy each of the last four seasons, Kelce is another player showing no signs of slowing down. His 24.4% target share in 2019 ranked second among all tight ends, while recording at least 60 receiving yards in 13 games. Oh, and who is Kelce’s quarterback again?
2.08: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins will get decent work in year one with the Ravens. No team called run at a higher rate in 2019 than Baltimore at just over 54% and as a result, then-backup Gus Edwards averaged over eight carries per game. I expect the Ravens to move on from Mark Ingram next year, which will result in 15-18 carries per game from Dobbins as the new lead back.
2.09: D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
Moore broke out in a big way in his second year, finishing with 87 receptions for 1,175 yards and four touchdowns. He was top-10 among all wideouts in routes, targets, receptions and yardage and now gets an upgrade at quarterback with Teddy Bridgewater and on the sidelines with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady organizing the offense.
2.10: George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle doesn’t see the targets that Kelce does, but my goodness does he take advantage of the ones he gets. He led the entire league in yards per route run in 2019 (3.12), while ranking second at the position in yards per target (9.8). His 7.1 yards after the catch per reception was third-best among tight ends, too. If he can get to the 115-120 target range, he could dethrone Kelce.
2.11: Kenyan Drake, RB (free agent)
If Drake returns to Arizona in 2021, he should be a top-24 pick in fantasy leagues. He was acquired at the trade deadline in 2019 and immediately made an impact, rushing for 110 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries on Thursday night against the 49ers. From that point on, Drake never looked back, ranking fifth in the league in rushing yards (652), second in rushing touchdowns (8), fourth in 100-yard games (3), sixth in carries inside the five-yard line (8) and fourth in fantasy points. During that span, Drake averaged a healthy 18.8 touches per game, as well as 3.5 receptions per game.
2.12: A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
Brown exploded in the second half of his rookie campaign. He was electric as a rookie, ranking second in yards per pass route (3.46) and yards per target (12.5), while ranking third in yards per reception (20.2). He also led all wideouts in yards after the catch per reception (8.9) and was the WR5 from Week 9 on. If Tennessee moves on from Henry and leans toward the pass more, Brown could become a top-10 fantasy wideout.
