Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
A Panthers fan in desperate need of some Bryce Young optimism may be an easy mark for the traditional May OTA stories of how Tyquan Thornton paced his receiver room in early practices and how Treylon Burks looks like the next Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. But there is a fine line between gullibility and an understanding that things change quickly in the NFL. And while you may shouldn’t reach for Thornton and Burks in your shallow redraft leagues, post-hype sleepers can win your leagues when they see Jared Goff and Kyren Williams sorts of career rebounds.
What follows are 10 of my favorite post-hype sleepers for 2024 with the 2023 stats that spur my optimism.
2024 Fantasy Football Post-Hype Sleepers
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Stat: 4.9% dropped air yards percentage (10th of 48 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts)
Justin Herbert faces major questions at wide receiver after his offseason losses of incumbent stars Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But that star power didn’t exactly boost Herbert in 2023. The fourth-year passer suffered the 10th highest dropped air yards percentage. And while an inexperienced receiver in Quentin Johnston was his biggest culprit, drop rate is overwhelmingly noisy from year to year. Herbert himself saw a 4.6% dropped air yards percentage in his sophomore season — and despite 32 games from Allen and Williams. And he bookended it with much friendlier 2.6% and 2.5% rates in 2020 and 2022. I’m not sure which of Johnston, Joshua Palmer and rookie Ladd McConkey will fill the void. But I am confident Herbert will be much closer to his traditional Pro Bowl standard than the public seems to believe.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Stat: 4.27 expected touchdown shortfall (7th of 48 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts)
I suspect the fantasy world was ready to forgive Matthew Stafford for his injury-shortened Super Bowl hangover in 2022. But the veteran underwhelmed with under 4,000 yards and with 24 touchdowns again in 2023 even though he played the bulk of the latter season. Perhaps his thumb sprain was an issue. But I think the major fault for his modest fantasy season was poor touchdown luck. Stafford yielded a ridiculous nine rushing touchdowns within 5 yards of the end zone to breakout running back Kyren Williams. And while Williams is excellent, I would bet on a few more Stafford to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua bunny touchdowns in 2024. The former player threw 4.27 fewer touchdowns than his expected total last year. And if healthy, he should threaten 30-plus touchdowns in 2024.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Stat: 1.62 average yards of target separation (38th of 48 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts)
It is difficult to evaluate a quarterback separate from his situation. Just ask all the scouts who saw Bryce Young as a better prospect than C.J. Stroud last year. Those scouts have undoubtedly changed their minds. But Young could made a dramatic leap forward in his second season if the Panthers team around him improves with better players, better protection and better play-calling. The former is easiest to see in his bottom-quartile 1.62 average yards of target separation in 2023. Young did not feature a receiver in the upper half of his position in average separation. DJ Chark (1.27) was bottom 10 and departed in free agency. Jonathan Mingo (1.50) was bottom third and will lose playing time if he cannot improve. Diontae Johnson (1.66) would have led the team with his upper half rate and is poised to be their new No. 1 receiver. And rookie Xavier Legette should help Young with quick deliveries with his after-the-catch skills.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Stat: 10.15 expected touchdown shortfall (1st of 49 running backs with 100-plus attempts)
Quarterbacks have some control over the expected touchdown surpluses and shortfalls. But running backs are largely the victims of randomness. Tony Pollard has seen both sides of that coin. He enjoyed the biggest surplus at his position with 12 touchdowns on just 32 red zone opportunities in 2022. And he suffered the biggest shortfall at his position with six touchdowns on 73 red zone opportunities in 2023 — tied for second most behind Christian McCaffrey. Pollard can’t count on another league-leading red zone total in a new and less explosive offense in Tennessee this season. But even at just 6-foot-0 and 210 pounds, he’s bigger than his new backfield teammate Tyjae Spears. I expect regression to push Pollard to the middle of his 2022 and 2023 touchdown extremes, and that makes him an excellent bounceback candidate.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Stat: 45.2% hit-in-the-backfield rate (11th of 49 running backs with 100-plus attempts)
A reach of a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix may not cure what ailed Javonte Williams in a disappointing 2023 season. But the third year back seemed to suffer more than his fair share of the Broncos’ underwhelming offense. Williams was hit in the backfield on 45.2% of his carries, the 11th-highest rate of regular running backs and dramatically more than his teammates Jaleel McLaughlin (38.2%) and Samaje Perine (37.7%). A featured red zone role doesn’t explain that big of a chasm. Williams will likely improve on his career low 3.6 yards per attempt with an easier set of carries next season. And he could improve substantially another year removed from his 2022 ACL tear.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears
Stat: 31.1% stacked-box percentage (6th of 49 running backs with 100-plus attempts)
Their matching 4.6 yards per attempt would tell you that presumed new Bears starter D’Andre Swift and incumbent Khalil Herbert had similarly efficient 2023 seasons. But the difficulty of their respective carries tells a much different story. Behind the versatile Jalen Hurts and a standout Eagles offensive line, Swift saw a moderate 18.8% stacked-box percentage. In contrast, Herbert saw loaded boxes on 31.1% of his attempts, the sixth highest rate at his position. Caleb Williams will push or pull that rate with the speed of his transition to the NFL. But Herbert teased a tremendous upside with 5.7 yards per attempt in 2022 with a Swift-like 20.2% stacked-box percentage. I wouldn’t assume he’s a definitive second or third on his depth chart.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
Stat: 0.57 yards before contact per attempt (49th of 49 running backs with 100-plus attempts)
Most will be quick to dismiss DeMeco Ryans’ assertion that Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce can be a 1-2 punch as classic May coach-speak. Mixon is an established and newly re-minted star. And Pierce underwhelmed in what one would assume were fantastic circumstances in his second season next to a new star quarterback in C.J. Stroud. But if you dig a bit deeper, you can see that Pierce did not have an easy time in 2023. He was hit in the backfield on a ridiculous 49.7% of his carries. And he set the unwanted pace for his position with a miniscule 0.57 yards before contact per attempt. The Texans did not do much to bolster their offensive line this offseason. But simple regression should help Pierce. Devin Singletary saw a middling 1.81 average yards before contact behind the same line last year. Meanwhile, Pierce edged Mixon with 2.28 versus 2.05 yards after contact per attempt and is four years younger. I wouldn’t dismiss the former’s bounce-back chances in 2024.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Stat: 7.9% dropped air yards percentage (6th of 80 wide receivers with 50-plus targets)
Quentin Johnston has more than a few drops to blame for his disappointing rookie season. The No. 21 draft pick caught barely half the balls of the receivers taken just behind him, Jordan Addison (70) and Zay Flowers (77). But Johnston’s drops were a plausible symptom of a rookie overload, and drop rate has a poor correlation from year to year. He has new Day 2 draft competition in Ladd McConkey. But Johnston is still 6-foot-3 with a 40.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2-inch broad jump. And he will have plenty of vacated Keenan Allen and Mike Williams targets to fight over. Johnston is an excellent late-draft lottery ticket.
Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Stat: 55.4% catchable target rate (78th of 80 wide receivers with 50-plus targets)
Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have some obvious similarities. But that doesn’t mean that Marquise Brown had similar fantasy opportunities with his former Ravens and Cardinals teams. The former first-round receiver pick belied Jackson’s reputation as an inaccurate passer with decent 66.7%, 73.1% and 72.9% catchable target rates from 2020 to 2022 — bottom third but in line with the general expectations for a deep threat receiver. But in part because of a Murray injury, Brown slipped to a 55.4% catchable target rate in 2023 that was the third lowest among regular receivers. Patrick Mahomes would be an upgrade over anyone. But Brown looks poised to see an unusual reversal of fantasy fortune with the Chiefs this year. Xavier Worthy is the sexy Day 1 draft pick. But don’t overlook Brown in the middle rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Stat: 64.0% catchable target rate (39th of 39 tight ends with 35-plus targets)
Few people will confuse Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes. But the former quarterback could have as dramatic of a positive effect on his new teammate Kyle Pitts as the latter seems poised to have on Marquise Brown. Pitts has ranked last at his position with 61.0% and 64.0% catchable target rates in disappointing second and third professional seasons. But with a still-competent Matt Ryan in his rookie 2021 season, Pitts parlayed a middling 79.1% catchable target rate into more than 1,000 receiving yards. We’ve all been burned, but don’t give up on the talented tight end just yet.
